With Cindy getting out of our hair, it's time to turn our attention and focus to the SE where Hurricane Dennis was already sporting 85 mph sustained winds late tonight with gusts over 100.
We have been saying for days that Dennis is going to be much more of a problem than Cindy and that is still the case. Late tonight he was centered about 245 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica moving WNW at 15. Sustained winds were near 85 mph and Dennis could become a strong Category 2 hurricane by the time he reaches Jamaica by Thursday afternoon.
Now, let's jump far to the NW where Dennis' future path is through the Gulf of Mexico. He is expected to become a major hurricane. In fact, by late Saturday the general guidelines show him over the SE Gulf with sustained winds of 120 and gusts to 150. At some point late Sunday night or early Monday morning, landfall is projected on the Gulf Coast. While the projected landfall is around Mobile, we caution as strongly as we know how that a projection that far ahead can have substantial error.
We are saying all of this to get the point across that Dennis will be a very serious hurricane. As far as who gets what, it will have to be a game of watching and waiting. We will keep updating Dennis on the 33/40 blog all the way through the weekend.
A late note about Cindy. Her circulation late tonight was somewhere over East-Central Alabama east of SE of the Birmingham area. Very difficult to tell the exact location. She will move on in to Georgia later tonight.
Late Night Dennis Update
July 6, 2005, 10:36 pm
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Cindy Update
July 6, 2005, 9:49 pm
Cindy is no more as far as a tropical storm is concerned and the National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing advisories.
Late tonight the center of circulation was a little bit difficult to pinpoint, but we think based on surface observations and radar animations that Cindy is centered around Pell City east of Birmingham and moving toward the NE.
Doesn't matter a great deal, because the center has become somewhat diffused and a bit elongated.
Overall, the weather is winding down, however it has been quite a day. Scan down and read a number of other posts that still have useful information including a long list of rainfall amounts.
A Tornado Watch continued for parts of East Alabama until 1:00 a.m., however some of those counties have already been cleared. The risk of additional spin-off tornadoes in Alabama the rest of the night seem small.
John Pace, the News Director for WTDR-FM in Anniston/Oxford, gave us this report late tonight. He was in Ashland when there was lots of street flooding. He came through Waldo and there was some debris, but not major, but leaves and twigs were all over the place. Power was out on Highway 21 south of Munford. Power crews were searching along the power lines about 5 miles south of Munford.
We received an interesting rainfall report from one of our blog readers from Weogufka in East Central Alabama. He reported 4.33 inches of rain with most of that falling in 45 minutes early this evening. Let's look at some additional rainfall amounts that we have not posted before;
7.56 inches at Galliano, Louisiana
6.37 at Grand Isle, Louisiana (that's where Cindy made landfall)
4.99 in New Orleans
6.61 at Pascagoula
6.50 at Gulfport, MS
6.03 at Vancleave, MS
6.55 inches at Mobile Airport
3.52 at Fowl River in Mobile County
Now, people in the Southern Appalachians will have to worry about inland flooding. As much as 8 inches may fall in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.
For the Birmingham area, rain will be tapering off shortly with very little for the remainder of tonight.
NOTE: We will try to post a complete update on Hurricane Dennis by around 10:30 or so tonight. He is, by far, our major concern now.
Late tonight the center of circulation was a little bit difficult to pinpoint, but we think based on surface observations and radar animations that Cindy is centered around Pell City east of Birmingham and moving toward the NE.
Doesn't matter a great deal, because the center has become somewhat diffused and a bit elongated.
Overall, the weather is winding down, however it has been quite a day. Scan down and read a number of other posts that still have useful information including a long list of rainfall amounts.
A Tornado Watch continued for parts of East Alabama until 1:00 a.m., however some of those counties have already been cleared. The risk of additional spin-off tornadoes in Alabama the rest of the night seem small.
John Pace, the News Director for WTDR-FM in Anniston/Oxford, gave us this report late tonight. He was in Ashland when there was lots of street flooding. He came through Waldo and there was some debris, but not major, but leaves and twigs were all over the place. Power was out on Highway 21 south of Munford. Power crews were searching along the power lines about 5 miles south of Munford.
We received an interesting rainfall report from one of our blog readers from Weogufka in East Central Alabama. He reported 4.33 inches of rain with most of that falling in 45 minutes early this evening. Let's look at some additional rainfall amounts that we have not posted before;
7.56 inches at Galliano, Louisiana
6.37 at Grand Isle, Louisiana (that's where Cindy made landfall)
4.99 in New Orleans
6.61 at Pascagoula
6.50 at Gulfport, MS
6.03 at Vancleave, MS
6.55 inches at Mobile Airport
3.52 at Fowl River in Mobile County
Now, people in the Southern Appalachians will have to worry about inland flooding. As much as 8 inches may fall in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.
For the Birmingham area, rain will be tapering off shortly with very little for the remainder of tonight.
NOTE: We will try to post a complete update on Hurricane Dennis by around 10:30 or so tonight. He is, by far, our major concern now.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
A Few More Notes
July 6, 2005, 8:41 pm
TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
A tornadic circulation indicated 4 miles south of Lineville at 8:20 p.m. This potential tornado will pass to just north of Wedowee during the hour.
A couple additional rainfall reports:
5.10 inches at Newbern (Hale County)
2.32 in Notasula
(Thanks to Channel 8, Montgomery, for sharing these)
A tornadic circulation indicated 4 miles south of Lineville at 8:20 p.m. This potential tornado will pass to just north of Wedowee during the hour.
A couple additional rainfall reports:
5.10 inches at Newbern (Hale County)
2.32 in Notasula
(Thanks to Channel 8, Montgomery, for sharing these)
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
More Rainfall Reports
July 6, 2005, 7:59 pm
Cindy sure did us well with rainfall. Here is a roundup of rainfall amounts through about tonight. Mobile Airport still has the prize with 6.53 inches.
1.14 in Helena (Brian Peters)
0.66 in NE Trussville
2.70 at Roanoke (WEIR Radio)
1.08 at Riverchase (3340 Studios)
1.33 at Vincent
1.06 in Oxford
5.35 at Marion (Perry County, 3340 WeatherWatcher)
4.41 at Alexander City
2.47 at Ashland
2.36 at Clanton
3.05 at Lay Dam
3.29 at Yates Dam
5.06 at Hackneyville (Talladega County)
2.29 at Horseshoe Bend
3.23 at Harris Dam
1.89 in Sylacauga
5.13 at Martin Dam
3.03 at Mitchell Dam
3.41 at Wadley
1.43 at Jordan Dam
1.00 at Tuscaloosa Van de Graf Airport
1.13 in Anniston
1.96 at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
6.53 at Mobile Regional Airport (Bates Field)
0.68 at Birmingham Airport
1.14 in Helena (Brian Peters)
0.66 in NE Trussville
2.70 at Roanoke (WEIR Radio)
1.08 at Riverchase (3340 Studios)
1.33 at Vincent
1.06 in Oxford
5.35 at Marion (Perry County, 3340 WeatherWatcher)
4.41 at Alexander City
2.47 at Ashland
2.36 at Clanton
3.05 at Lay Dam
3.29 at Yates Dam
5.06 at Hackneyville (Talladega County)
2.29 at Horseshoe Bend
3.23 at Harris Dam
1.89 in Sylacauga
5.13 at Martin Dam
3.03 at Mitchell Dam
3.41 at Wadley
1.43 at Jordan Dam
1.00 at Tuscaloosa Van de Graf Airport
1.13 in Anniston
1.96 at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
6.53 at Mobile Regional Airport (Bates Field)
0.68 at Birmingham Airport
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
A Few Rainfall Reports
July 6, 2005, 6:58 pm
It has been pouring over much of East Alabama, thanks to Cindy. A few notes:
.....Don Strength, EMA Director for Roanoke reports 2.50 inches--most of it falling in about two hours late today between 4:30 and 6:30 pm.
.....Almost an inch (0.93) at Riverchase (ABC 3340 Studios)
.....0.67 at Greystone Cove (North Shelby County from James Spann)
We will gather some additional reports later this evening.
.....Don Strength, EMA Director for Roanoke reports 2.50 inches--most of it falling in about two hours late today between 4:30 and 6:30 pm.
.....Almost an inch (0.93) at Riverchase (ABC 3340 Studios)
.....0.67 at Greystone Cove (North Shelby County from James Spann)
We will gather some additional reports later this evening.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Early Evening Look at Cindy
July 6, 2005, 6:39 pm
A little difficult to pick out her exact center but based on radar loops, she is in the center of the state...maybe over Chilton County.
Moving NE.
She will continue NE tonight passing south and east of the Birmingham area. Then she will continue across North Georgia in Western North Carolina.
Her baggage also includes loads of tropical moisture. This does not bode well for the Appalachians. Serious flooding can occur when all of that ultra moist air tries to rise over the mountains.
A FEW LATE ALABAMA NOTES:
.....Several Tornado Warnings issued this afternoon and this evening, mainly in East-Central Alabama
.....The NWS confirms an F1 tornado near Prattville in Autauga County
.....At 1:30 p.m., a tornado touched down 5 miles north of Autaugaville in Autauga County. The NWS has already done a storm survey on that one. The path length was only one-quarter of a mile and the width a mere 20 to 30 yards. These small spin-off tornadoes form so quickly and only stay on the ground for a very brief period making it very difficult to warn for them.
.....A report from a 33/40 viewer in Pell City: "We have trees down in our subdivision in Pell City. Large trees have been snapped. Haven't been able to check the damage yet."
.....Later tonight on future posts, we will try to assemble a more comprehensive list of Cindy rainfall amounts so far.
Moving NE.
She will continue NE tonight passing south and east of the Birmingham area. Then she will continue across North Georgia in Western North Carolina.
Her baggage also includes loads of tropical moisture. This does not bode well for the Appalachians. Serious flooding can occur when all of that ultra moist air tries to rise over the mountains.
A FEW LATE ALABAMA NOTES:
.....Several Tornado Warnings issued this afternoon and this evening, mainly in East-Central Alabama
.....The NWS confirms an F1 tornado near Prattville in Autauga County
.....At 1:30 p.m., a tornado touched down 5 miles north of Autaugaville in Autauga County. The NWS has already done a storm survey on that one. The path length was only one-quarter of a mile and the width a mere 20 to 30 yards. These small spin-off tornadoes form so quickly and only stay on the ground for a very brief period making it very difficult to warn for them.
.....A report from a 33/40 viewer in Pell City: "We have trees down in our subdivision in Pell City. Large trees have been snapped. Haven't been able to check the damage yet."
.....Later tonight on future posts, we will try to assemble a more comprehensive list of Cindy rainfall amounts so far.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Flood Problems, Greater Birmingham Area
July 6, 2005, 6:17 pm
Heavy rain is spreading northward fromm Central Alabama and this may cause some flood problems for the Greater Birmingham Area.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Shelby and Jefferson County until 10 o'clock tonight.
Another Tornado Warning has also been issued for Coosa County.
Lots going on on this wet and windy night.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Shelby and Jefferson County until 10 o'clock tonight.
Another Tornado Warning has also been issued for Coosa County.
Lots going on on this wet and windy night.
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
You Guessed It--Dennis Now a Hurricane
July 6, 2005, 5:58 pm
It was just a matter of time.
Dennis is now a hurricane over the Central Caribbean.
Late this afternoon, he was centered near Latitude 16.1N, Longitude 72.5W, or about 300 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica and about 335 miles SSW of Guantanamo, Cuba.
He was moving WNW near 14 mph with sustained winds now up to 80 mph.
Now, let's jump way ahead.
Dennis will continue across the Caribbean and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico and then continue NW across the Central Gulf of Mexico. By late Sunday night or early Monday morning, he is expected to approach the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast.
The official NHC track forecast points to the Alabama Coast. However, some other weather models are shifting westward as far as the Louisiana Coast.
It is interesting to note that QPF Charts (that estimate rainfall potential) are indicating over 9 inches of rain from Dennis in the Pensacola-Orange Beach area.
Again, all this is subject to change.
But it does tell us that we need to watch and wait. Good idea if you have trip planned for the coast, to watch updates closely over the next several days.
Dennis is now a hurricane over the Central Caribbean.
Late this afternoon, he was centered near Latitude 16.1N, Longitude 72.5W, or about 300 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica and about 335 miles SSW of Guantanamo, Cuba.
He was moving WNW near 14 mph with sustained winds now up to 80 mph.
Now, let's jump way ahead.
Dennis will continue across the Caribbean and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico and then continue NW across the Central Gulf of Mexico. By late Sunday night or early Monday morning, he is expected to approach the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast.
The official NHC track forecast points to the Alabama Coast. However, some other weather models are shifting westward as far as the Louisiana Coast.
It is interesting to note that QPF Charts (that estimate rainfall potential) are indicating over 9 inches of rain from Dennis in the Pensacola-Orange Beach area.
Again, all this is subject to change.
But it does tell us that we need to watch and wait. Good idea if you have trip planned for the coast, to watch updates closely over the next several days.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Chilton County Under The Gun
July 6, 2005, 5:01 pm
A Tornado warning now for Chilton County right in the center of Alabama until 5:15 pm.
It was located near Maplesville, 17 miles west of Clanton so the warning is for the west part of Chilton County.
A Tornado Warning also for Tallapoosa County.
It was located near Maplesville, 17 miles west of Clanton so the warning is for the west part of Chilton County.
A Tornado Warning also for Tallapoosa County.
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
Report From The Public--Tallapoosa County
July 6, 2005, 4:44 pm
I live in Tallapoosa County at Murphy Lake, 2 mi. west of intersection AL 50 & AL 49 (Walnut Hill).
Heavy rain came at 2:45 and we received 3 1/4" in 45 min. No significant wind.
As of 3:40 p.m., pretty calm now compared with an hr. ago.
Heavy rain came at 2:45 and we received 3 1/4" in 45 min. No significant wind.
As of 3:40 p.m., pretty calm now compared with an hr. ago.
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather