The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lets spend some time talking about the tropics, and take each system one at a time:

MARIA: This hurricane is moving out to the north Atlantic and is no threat to land.

NATE: Good looking system; should become a hurricane soon. But, like Maria, no threat to land.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE: This thing is barely hanging in there... seems like dry air (Sahara Dust Layer is keeping this in check.

GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE: This "backyard system" has a chance to slowly develop, and would most likely move toward the Texas coast as a big rain-maker.

OPHELIA: TD 16 should be Ophelia soon, possibly by the time you read this. Most of our attention will be on this system just east of Florida.

Latest recon shows max flight level winds of only 20 knots (around 1:15 p.m.)...

Steering currents are very weak and this thing might hang around the same spot for several days. And, unfortunately, growing stronger at the same time.

I am not sure this thing can get north of Jacksonville due to the ridge north of the system. I think that same ridge has the chance to ultimately nudge this thing more to the west. The official track has Ophelia moving up toward Jacksonville this weekend. I just am not convinced it gets that far north.

The GFDL still suggests the thing is heading toward Louisiana. The GFS wants to drift the system northward before moving it into Georgia, with the big moisture mass arriving in Alabama toward the middle of next week. The NAM keeps the system off the Florida coast through 84 hours. Just too early for the models to really have a handle on it.

But, we must remember the models had a bad initial bias to the north and east with Katrina. That might be the case with this one. I do have fear this winds up in the Gulf of Mexico at some point this weekend, and it becomes a threat for everyone from Texas around the horn to the Florida panhandle.

Be sure and scroll down and see the pictures from Ed Pegues, who has been in Waveland, MS in recent days. Amazing.

TELETHON: Just learned ABC 33/40 will do a "mini-telethon" for victims of Katrina Thursday evening from 6:00 until 8:00. Never thought I would be doing a telethon again... years ago I hosted such events for organizations like United Cerebral Palsy and the Children's Hospital of Alabama. I will post more details on this program as I get information on it.

These images were sent to us by Ed Pegues, who is part of the Alabama Heavy Rescue Team No. 5, which is also Hoover Fire Department's Technical Rescue Team that is located at station 4 on Municipal Drive in Hoover.  They were activated last week to go down to southern Mississippi to help in search and rescue efforts from Hurricane Katrina. They were in Waveland, Mississippi for six days searching in that town and the outskirts of Waveland in some of the rural areas.  One third of the team came home on Saturday and next third came home yesterday.

Here is the first bulletin on Tropical Depression 16 which formed this morning in the northwestern Bahamas. If this becomes a tropical storm, it will become Ophelia.

-Brian-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

This will probably be my last update from Gulfport. My son, Steve, part of the Birmingham Fire Department Heavy Resuce Team, is enroute back to Birmingham this morning along with 12 other firemen. He has phoned me reports via cell phone when he could get through. A "fresh Group" of 13 will be going down today. A few notes from Monday's work:

* The team went to the place where two other large barges were located inland. Earlier, they had found a large barge about 25 yards wide by 100 yards long about 1/2 to 3/4 of a mile inland at the end of a dead end street. It had to float over telephone poles to get there. Means a storm surge of at least 30 feet, maybe more.

* The Grand Casino is stitting in the middle of U. S. 90. The Copa is also settled inland. Between the two of those are 15 to 20 destroyed 18-wheelers with Dole Banannas on the sides.

* They found 6 automobiles buried under huge piles of lumber.

* Thousands of huge rolls of brown paper scattered around. Very large rolls. Don't know what they are used for.

* About 50 people from the GBI (Georgia Burerau of Investigation) are on scene helping search for bodies. They found a number of them yesterday and marked the spot.

* Based on order, several bodies are also likely buried under the huge piles of lumber that is piled 15 to 20 feet deep. Will take heavy equipment to reach them.

* The military brought in a tanker truck with thousands of gallons of water so they could take showers.

* Three sets of traffice lights have been restored and working.

* About 1/2 dozen business establishments in Gulfport now have power.

* Assignments have changed frequently (to be expected at a time like this) The Birmingham Fire Group have been in and around Gulfport the entire time. The Hoover Fire Department team was sent to Slidell, Louisiana. There are also other firemen from Alabaster, Trussville and others in the area.

* Steve has taken nearly 800 digital photographs while there.

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

A wedge type flow continues here through mid-week with drier air draining into the state from the northeast. Most places around here will stay dry through Friday. Beyond that, the weather depends on tropical action:

ATLANTIC BASIN VERY ACTIVE: Wow... what a series of systems:

MARIA: The hurricane heads out to sea and is no threat to land.

NATE: Same as Maria, this one will get hung up in the westerlies and is no threat to land.

CARIBBEAN WAVE: We have been watching this since it came off the coast of Africa, but still no development as it moves into the far eastern Caribbean. Still worth watching, but seems to really have a hard time getting its act together.

OPEHLIA? (Hey, we don't name them, we just forecast them) Sure looks like we have a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida. A hurricane hunter will be in the system later today to confirm this. Models are all over the place since steering currents are very weak and the system has not been very organized. Seems to be this thing won't move much during the mid-week period, but I do have concern it ultimately moves west-southwest across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Same pattern that is providing the easterly flow here should do this.

Where does Ophelia go if it gets into the Gulf? Don't want to play that game now... just too early.

Be sure and scroll down and read Bill Murray's post from Saturday August 27 I re-posted here. Did he hit the nail on the head or what?

The next map discussion video will be up by 3:30 today.