After today, looks like we will go from the “severe weather” mode into the “winter storm” mode here in the weather office. We still have to get through another rain event on Thursday which might bring some flooding issues, but cooler air begins to return this weekend, with much colder air down the road. And, down the road I get the idea we will have at least one, maybe more, decent snow or ice threats as far south as I-20. Having said all of this, remember, there is very, very little skill in a specific forecast out beyond seven days. I have to repeat that disclaimer since so many new people read this!

Here is the best “guess” on future events, based on a blend of the American GFS and the European model output. In the December 14-15 time frame, a nice batch of Polar air works down into the southern states. Nothing record breaking, but it could push morning lows down in the 20s for the northern half of the state toward the middle of next week (about a week from now). Then, in the December 16-17 time frame, a big Arctic air mass moves down into the U.S., featuring a 1044 millibar high over Wyoming. And, at the same time, a storm system spins up in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

So, if we have a winter storm threat, best guess now on timing would be sometime in the December 16-19 period. There is absolutely no way to resolve details this far in advance, and there is a real chance the ice and snow threat will be north of Alabama closer to I-40 instead of I-20. But all of the ingredients will be in place. I won’t even get into the situation beyond that, but for those of you dreaming of a white Christmas, this might be our best chance since 1989. So, instead of a one in one thousand chance, we are probably down to a one in twenty chance this year. We do indeed have some fun days ahead in the weather office!

At 10 tonight, a line of strong thunderstorms was across Central Arkansas down into Louisiana and moving eastward. Some of the storms were severe. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for North Louisiana and SE Arkansas until 2 AM.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has discontinued the "Moderate Risk." area that covered NE Texas, North Louisiana, the southern third of Arkansas and Extreme West Mississippi (around Greenville) and replaced it with a "slight risk."

The slight risk continues as far east as the NW corner of Alabama valid through 6 AM Tuesday. Slight risk extends eastward into other parts of Alabama for tomorrow.

For Central Alabama, still looks like the worst weather will be in the predawn hours and through Tuesday morning. Flash flooding will also be a problem. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 1 AM for Franklin, Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison, Colbert and Lawrence Counties in Extreme North Alabama. Already, 2 to 3 inches of rain has fallen. The NWS, Huntsville, advises that numerous roads in those counties were under water tonight.

The decision was made to keep me in the studio this evening with pending severe weather tomorrow... so... no parade for me.

The afternoon video is posted:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not much change in the thinking. Main severe weather threat will come tomorrow morning, with the main window between 6:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. Should be relatively quiet until the main band of storms arrive in the morning. Still a chance of severe storms with strong winds, and few isolated tornadoes.

And, lots of potential for winter weather issues down the road as we shift from the severe weather mode to the winter storm mode for the latter half of the month. Watch the video for details!

I get the idea will are really doing to be busy in the weather office for the rest of December.

For all the details, check out the morning video:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

First up, we have the dual flood/severe weather threat which will mainly come from about 4:00 a.m. until 1:00 p.m. tomorrow. All of the real fireworks today will probably stay well to the west of us, where a moderate risk of severe weather is forecast from northeast Texas into west Tennessee and north Mississippi. A few damaging tornaodes are certainly possible in this area later today and tonight.

A squall line, or some type of convective system, should pass through here tomorrow morning. Instability values and wind profiles suggest some of the storms will produce damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. I don't think this will have the same punch as the pre-Thanksgiving storm, but we will be on our toes. NWS Birmingham and Huntsville have posted flood watches for tonight and tomorrow; additional rain amounts of about 1 to 2 inches are likely, with isolated amounts to 3 inches.

Winter weather fans will have their turn over the latter half of December.

There is NO way you can be specific this far out, but here is the setup:

*A surge of cold air drops into the deep south early next week in the December 13-15 time frame.

*A major storm forms in the northeast Gulf of Mexico in the December 16-18 time frame, which moves up the Atlantic coast.

*Another very cold airmass drops in behind that storm in the December 18-20 time frame.

SO... will we have our first ice or snow threat with the December 16-18 storm? Maybe. Or, it could be to the north, along the I-40 corridor in Tennessee. Lets get through this severe weather event tomorrow and we can begin to focus on the winter storm fun and games.