One of the best tropical weather experts in the world, Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University, issued his outlook for the 2006 hurricane season yesterday. The 2005 season just ended last week, and oddly enough we still have a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic here in early December, Epsilon. But, for the U.S. mainland the season is over for sure with cool sea water temperatures near the coast. Here is an excerpt from Dr. Gray’s outlook:
Information obtained through November 2005 indicates that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average.
We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data. These include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). All predictors are calling for an active season. Analog predictors have also been utilized.
The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect El Niño conditions during the 2006 season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Niña conditions will develop.
2006 Hurricane Season Outlook
December 6, 2005, 10:50 pm
by James Spann
in Tropical Weather
Wet Weather By Thursday
December 6, 2005, 4:28 pm
The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
How about those lows this morning.... scroll down for a full list from J.B. Turns out Birmingham's official low was 23 degrees. For most places, easily the coldest morning of the season.
We need to stress it will be very cold again tonight. We are forecasting an average low of 25 degrees, but some spots should visit the low 20s again by daybreak tomorrow.
THURSDAY: Once again, it sure looks like a mostly cold and wet day. There remains a window early Thursday morning for a little freezing rain over far north Alabama, north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Collinsville. A little bridge icing will be possible in this area early in the day, but even there the day will feature mostly rain with temperatures above freezing.
Thursday night and early Friday morning, we will maintain the chance of a few flurries, mainly over northeast Alabama, but the deeper moisture moves out in a hurry and no accumulation is likely. Maybe a dusting possible above 1,000 feet on Lookout Mountain in northeast Alabama.
This will be a big snow event for some cities up in the northeast U.S... Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston could really get hit hard causing major airport delays Thursday night and Friday.
And, I still need to mention that ice and snow is possible down into Texas tomorrow, as far south as Dallas/Fort Worth where winter storm watches are in effect.
THE WEEKEND: Temperatures should moderate a bit over the weekend, with low 50s possible. Almost like a heat wave.
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK: Model disagreement abounds. The ECMWF (European) develops a storm south of New Orleans late Sunday, and moves it all the way to New York City by Monday night. This could mean rain for Alabama Sunday night into Monday. On the other hand, the GFS holds off the rain and the storm system until Tuesday. Both models suggest the system will bring rain here... not cold enough for wintry stuff.
LONG RANGE: Many hints of multiple Arctic air blasts later in the month... so cold weather fans should be happy. Not comfortable discussing any specifics right now... just look at those cold readings up north. See this paragraph from J.B.'s discussion this afternoon:
"Still a lot of bitter cold arctic air over the far north country. It dropped to 50 below zero during the night at Chandalar Lake, Alaska. It was 49 below in the north part of the Canadian Yukon, 42 below at Little Chicago in the Northwest Territory of Canada (gotta find out why that name). It was 41 below at Rabbit Kettle in the same region (another neat place name). Here in the lower 48, it was 24 below at Gunnison, Colorado with 12 inches of snow on the ground. Climax, Colorado has 36 inches of snow."
Enough said. This is very, very cold for so early in the season....
The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
How about those lows this morning.... scroll down for a full list from J.B. Turns out Birmingham's official low was 23 degrees. For most places, easily the coldest morning of the season.
We need to stress it will be very cold again tonight. We are forecasting an average low of 25 degrees, but some spots should visit the low 20s again by daybreak tomorrow.
THURSDAY: Once again, it sure looks like a mostly cold and wet day. There remains a window early Thursday morning for a little freezing rain over far north Alabama, north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Collinsville. A little bridge icing will be possible in this area early in the day, but even there the day will feature mostly rain with temperatures above freezing.
Thursday night and early Friday morning, we will maintain the chance of a few flurries, mainly over northeast Alabama, but the deeper moisture moves out in a hurry and no accumulation is likely. Maybe a dusting possible above 1,000 feet on Lookout Mountain in northeast Alabama.
This will be a big snow event for some cities up in the northeast U.S... Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston could really get hit hard causing major airport delays Thursday night and Friday.
And, I still need to mention that ice and snow is possible down into Texas tomorrow, as far south as Dallas/Fort Worth where winter storm watches are in effect.
THE WEEKEND: Temperatures should moderate a bit over the weekend, with low 50s possible. Almost like a heat wave.
STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK: Model disagreement abounds. The ECMWF (European) develops a storm south of New Orleans late Sunday, and moves it all the way to New York City by Monday night. This could mean rain for Alabama Sunday night into Monday. On the other hand, the GFS holds off the rain and the storm system until Tuesday. Both models suggest the system will bring rain here... not cold enough for wintry stuff.
LONG RANGE: Many hints of multiple Arctic air blasts later in the month... so cold weather fans should be happy. Not comfortable discussing any specifics right now... just look at those cold readings up north. See this paragraph from J.B.'s discussion this afternoon:
"Still a lot of bitter cold arctic air over the far north country. It dropped to 50 below zero during the night at Chandalar Lake, Alaska. It was 49 below in the north part of the Canadian Yukon, 42 below at Little Chicago in the Northwest Territory of Canada (gotta find out why that name). It was 41 below at Rabbit Kettle in the same region (another neat place name). Here in the lower 48, it was 24 below at Gunnison, Colorado with 12 inches of snow on the ground. Climax, Colorado has 36 inches of snow."
Enough said. This is very, very cold for so early in the season....
The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
Scanning The World For Cold Temperatures
December 6, 2005, 10:01 am
Here is a comprehensive list of some low temperatures recorded around Alabama this morning. Most of these lows were through 6AM. It is possible that some stations dropped another degree or so between 6 and 7 AM.
17 in Florence, Madison, Hartselle
19 in Crossville, Ft. Payne, Muscle Shoals, Gadsden, Athens
20 in Moulton
21 in Cullman, Meridianville, Pinson, Vinemont, Munford, Little River Canyon, Albertville, Brindley Mountain, Parrish
22 in Decatur, Huntsville, Oxford, Leeds, Grayson Valley, Trussville, Guntersville, Jasper
23 in Greystone Cove, Helena (Nathan Jones), Alabaster, Hayden, Rainbow City
24 in Helena (Brian Peters), Birmingham Airport, Inverness, Anniston Airport
25 in Wadley and atop Mt. Cheaha
27 in Montgomery, Auburn and at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
28 in Selma, Prattville and Jackson (Clarke County)
29 in Reform and Mobile
30 in Troy and Grand Bay
31 in Lillian (near the beach in South Baldwin County)
33 in Fairhope
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
33/40 weather watchers, Michael Mills at Alabaster and Nathan Jones in Helena, emphasized a very heavy frost this morning. That is probably the case over a wide area of the state, especially in the valleys. Overall this was our coldest morning so far.
SCANNING THE WORLD:
Seemingly an endless supply of bitter cold. As always this winter, we will also be looking across the North Pole into places like Siberia to watch out for intense high pressure areas and bitter cold. Sometimes here in the Deep South we can get our coldest temperatures from a cross-polar invasion of bitter cold air. Here are some selected lows so far this morning and these may not be the final numbers.
20 below zero in Gunnison, Colorado
40 below in Arctic Village, Alaska
37 below in Deadhorse, Alaska with thick ice fog and a wind chill of 53 below
50 below at Chandalar Lake, Alaska during the night--not the final low
49 below in the north part of the Yukon Territory
42 below at Ft. McPherson in Canada's Northwest Territory
42 below at Little Chicago, NWT (gotta find out why it is named that)
41 below at Rabbit Kettle, NWT (another interesting place name)
The 20 below at Gunnison, Colorado is not far from where the all-time low temperature for Colorado was recorded at Taylor Park. If you ever get a chance to drive down the Gunnison River through the town of Gunnison and on downstream to Grand Junction, it is a beautiful drive.
17 in Florence, Madison, Hartselle
19 in Crossville, Ft. Payne, Muscle Shoals, Gadsden, Athens
20 in Moulton
21 in Cullman, Meridianville, Pinson, Vinemont, Munford, Little River Canyon, Albertville, Brindley Mountain, Parrish
22 in Decatur, Huntsville, Oxford, Leeds, Grayson Valley, Trussville, Guntersville, Jasper
23 in Greystone Cove, Helena (Nathan Jones), Alabaster, Hayden, Rainbow City
24 in Helena (Brian Peters), Birmingham Airport, Inverness, Anniston Airport
25 in Wadley and atop Mt. Cheaha
27 in Montgomery, Auburn and at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
28 in Selma, Prattville and Jackson (Clarke County)
29 in Reform and Mobile
30 in Troy and Grand Bay
31 in Lillian (near the beach in South Baldwin County)
33 in Fairhope
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
33/40 weather watchers, Michael Mills at Alabaster and Nathan Jones in Helena, emphasized a very heavy frost this morning. That is probably the case over a wide area of the state, especially in the valleys. Overall this was our coldest morning so far.
SCANNING THE WORLD:
Seemingly an endless supply of bitter cold. As always this winter, we will also be looking across the North Pole into places like Siberia to watch out for intense high pressure areas and bitter cold. Sometimes here in the Deep South we can get our coldest temperatures from a cross-polar invasion of bitter cold air. Here are some selected lows so far this morning and these may not be the final numbers.
20 below zero in Gunnison, Colorado
40 below in Arctic Village, Alaska
37 below in Deadhorse, Alaska with thick ice fog and a wind chill of 53 below
50 below at Chandalar Lake, Alaska during the night--not the final low
49 below in the north part of the Yukon Territory
42 below at Ft. McPherson in Canada's Northwest Territory
42 below at Little Chicago, NWT (gotta find out why it is named that)
41 below at Rabbit Kettle, NWT (another interesting place name)
The 20 below at Gunnison, Colorado is not far from where the all-time low temperature for Colorado was recorded at Taylor Park. If you ever get a chance to drive down the Gunnison River through the town of Gunnison and on downstream to Grand Junction, it is a beautiful drive.
Coldest Morning In Nearly A Year
December 6, 2005, 7:35 am
From the NWS in Huntsville... who also told us they found that over the last 20 years, every time we drop below 20 degrees before December 15...we get at least flurries on Christmas. Nice coincidence!
NOUS44 KHUN 061230
PNSHUN
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-062200-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005
...TODAY IS THE COLDEST MORNING IN NEARLY A YEAR...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DROPPED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AREAWIDE...
WITH MANY OUTLYING SPOTS FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES.
THIS MORNING'S LOW OF 22 DEGREES AT HUNTSVILLE IS THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 24TH 2005...316 DAYS AGO.
THIS MORNING'S LOW OF 19 DEGREES AT MUSCLE SHOALS IS THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE RECORDED THERE SINCE JANUARY 18TH 2005...322 DAYS AGO.
OTHER LOWS FROM PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES...
CROSSVILLE 19
CULLMAN 21
DECATUR 22
FORT PAYNE 19
HUNTSVILLE/UAH 21
MERIDIANVILLE 21
ADDITIONAL HIGHS AND LOWS FROM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CAN BE
FOUND IN OUR DAILY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCT /HUNOSOHUN
SXUS54 KHUN/ ISSUED BY 1030 AM THIS MORNING.
$$
ELLIOTT
NOUS44 KHUN 061230
PNSHUN
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-062200-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005
...TODAY IS THE COLDEST MORNING IN NEARLY A YEAR...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DROPPED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AREAWIDE...
WITH MANY OUTLYING SPOTS FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES.
THIS MORNING'S LOW OF 22 DEGREES AT HUNTSVILLE IS THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 24TH 2005...316 DAYS AGO.
THIS MORNING'S LOW OF 19 DEGREES AT MUSCLE SHOALS IS THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE RECORDED THERE SINCE JANUARY 18TH 2005...322 DAYS AGO.
OTHER LOWS FROM PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES...
CROSSVILLE 19
CULLMAN 21
DECATUR 22
FORT PAYNE 19
HUNTSVILLE/UAH 21
MERIDIANVILLE 21
ADDITIONAL HIGHS AND LOWS FROM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CAN BE
FOUND IN OUR DAILY TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCT /HUNOSOHUN
SXUS54 KHUN/ ISSUED BY 1030 AM THIS MORNING.
$$
ELLIOTT
Cold December Days
December 6, 2005, 7:14 am
The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
On mornings like this when I worked on Red Mountain many years ago I would say it is so cold I saw Vulcan with his hands in his pockets. We are way down in the 20s, and we will run the complete list of lows on here later this morning. Looks like most communities will have lows between 20 and 25 degrees.
Dry but cold weather continues through tomorrow. Another significant freeze is ahead tonight. Once again, we reject the MOS guidance numbers. They are too warm.
THURSDAY: Once again, nothing on the big map board this morning to make us change our minds in the event. Mostly a cold, rainy day for us. But there are some issues:
EARLY MORNING: At the onset of the precipitation, tempertaures could be near freezing over northwest Alabama and parts of the Tennessee Valley. Even if temperatures are in the mid 30s, evaporative cooling could bring temps down to 31 or 32. This could mean some bridge icing early Thursday morning thanks to a wintry mix. The best chance of this is along and north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Collinsville. I guess we can't rule out a few icy spots as far south as I-20, but that looks pretty unlikely at this point.
A cold rain should fall during the day Thursday as temperatures warm into the upper 30s.
THURSDAY NIGHT: As the surface low moves up the Atlantic coast, cold air will deepen and often there is a brief change to light snow before the storm winds down. The best chance of this seems to be over northeast Alabama; mainly across high terrain (above 1,000 feet). I would not be surprised if a dusting of snow is found early Friday up on Lookout Mountain around Mentone and Desoto State Park. And, I guess flurries could be seen as far south as Birmingham, but once again that looks unlikely at this point.
Other regional notes about this storm system:
MEMPHIS: NWS in Memphis thinks the city could see 1 to 3 inches of snow from this storm. Best chance of accumulating snow will generally be along north of I-40... with a wintry mix to the south down into far northern Mississippi and northern Alabama (as discussed above).
CAROLINAS: The ole CAD effect (cold air damming), or the WEDGE, could set up some ice with this storm from northeast Georgia up through parts of the Carolinas.
DALLAS: A winter storm watch remains in effect. Some ice and snow is possible for the metroplex tomorrow and tomorrow night, and they will probably hold in the 20s all day tomorrow with Arctic air invading from the north.
FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: Friday should feature gradual clearing, and the weekend will be dry. Hey, we might even reach the low 50s... like a heat wave!
The GFS is now holding back the next storm system until Monday night and Tuesday of next week... will wait until the 12Z run before we change our forecast.
LONG RANGE: Looks cold. We, of course, will have periods of warming, but the overall trend looks cold. With those -50s showing up in Alaska and western Canada, you have to think it might be pretty cold down here as we approach Christmas....
COLD WATCH: A quick peek at current Alaska observations shows -42 at Deadhorse. Ouch.
YAHOOOO: Our streaming agreement with AL.COM is on Yahoo:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051205/clm045.html?.v=31
Headed over to Anniston today to speak to a function for the Alabama Baptist Children's Homes and Family Ministries... will be back in the office and the afternoon video and post should be ready by 3:30....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
On mornings like this when I worked on Red Mountain many years ago I would say it is so cold I saw Vulcan with his hands in his pockets. We are way down in the 20s, and we will run the complete list of lows on here later this morning. Looks like most communities will have lows between 20 and 25 degrees.
Dry but cold weather continues through tomorrow. Another significant freeze is ahead tonight. Once again, we reject the MOS guidance numbers. They are too warm.
THURSDAY: Once again, nothing on the big map board this morning to make us change our minds in the event. Mostly a cold, rainy day for us. But there are some issues:
EARLY MORNING: At the onset of the precipitation, tempertaures could be near freezing over northwest Alabama and parts of the Tennessee Valley. Even if temperatures are in the mid 30s, evaporative cooling could bring temps down to 31 or 32. This could mean some bridge icing early Thursday morning thanks to a wintry mix. The best chance of this is along and north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Collinsville. I guess we can't rule out a few icy spots as far south as I-20, but that looks pretty unlikely at this point.
A cold rain should fall during the day Thursday as temperatures warm into the upper 30s.
THURSDAY NIGHT: As the surface low moves up the Atlantic coast, cold air will deepen and often there is a brief change to light snow before the storm winds down. The best chance of this seems to be over northeast Alabama; mainly across high terrain (above 1,000 feet). I would not be surprised if a dusting of snow is found early Friday up on Lookout Mountain around Mentone and Desoto State Park. And, I guess flurries could be seen as far south as Birmingham, but once again that looks unlikely at this point.
Other regional notes about this storm system:
MEMPHIS: NWS in Memphis thinks the city could see 1 to 3 inches of snow from this storm. Best chance of accumulating snow will generally be along north of I-40... with a wintry mix to the south down into far northern Mississippi and northern Alabama (as discussed above).
CAROLINAS: The ole CAD effect (cold air damming), or the WEDGE, could set up some ice with this storm from northeast Georgia up through parts of the Carolinas.
DALLAS: A winter storm watch remains in effect. Some ice and snow is possible for the metroplex tomorrow and tomorrow night, and they will probably hold in the 20s all day tomorrow with Arctic air invading from the north.
FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: Friday should feature gradual clearing, and the weekend will be dry. Hey, we might even reach the low 50s... like a heat wave!
The GFS is now holding back the next storm system until Monday night and Tuesday of next week... will wait until the 12Z run before we change our forecast.
LONG RANGE: Looks cold. We, of course, will have periods of warming, but the overall trend looks cold. With those -50s showing up in Alaska and western Canada, you have to think it might be pretty cold down here as we approach Christmas....
COLD WATCH: A quick peek at current Alaska observations shows -42 at Deadhorse. Ouch.
YAHOOOO: Our streaming agreement with AL.COM is on Yahoo:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051205/clm045.html?.v=31
Headed over to Anniston today to speak to a function for the Alabama Baptist Children's Homes and Family Ministries... will be back in the office and the afternoon video and post should be ready by 3:30....
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