This week we bring the Storm Alert 2006 tour to the Birmingham metro area. Our show will be Thursday night at Homewood High School in the auditorium; we will begin at 7:00, but as always we recommend you get there early to get a free t-shirt and a good seat. At our first stop in Hamilton last week, we ran out of both seats and t-shirts by 5:30! More than 200 people were lined up trying to get into the auditorium up at Bevill State at 6:00 when the place was already full. That was an amazing crowd, and once again we thank everyone in Hamilton and Northwest Alabama who came out.
Our show features some really good Alabama weather stories, including one on Alabama’s deadliest tornado outbreak, which happened on March 21, 1932. You will meet a man who lost his parents and five brothers and sisters in a tornado that evening in Stanton, in Chilton County below Maplesville. He was only four years old at the time, but he has an amazing memory of the storm. Brian Peters has a very good story on the “global warming” issue; he talks with Dr. John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This guy is very smart and doesn’t let politics get in the way of facts.
Jason Simpson also has an interview with Dr. Keith Blackwell of the University of South Alabama concerning the wild hurricane season of 2005. Keith is one of the smartest tropical experts in the world, and he discusses last year’s historic season, and he some ideas on what is ahead for the Gulf coast in coming years.
And, we show off the all new ABC 33/40 SkyCam Network, being put together by an Alabama company. Bring the whole family; we will see you Thursday night at Homewood High School at 7:00!
Storm Alert 2006 Coming To Homewood
February 7, 2006, 9:55 pm
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Challenging Weekend Forecast
February 7, 2006, 3:18 pm
The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
More interesting days ahead in the ole forecast office...
TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY: A clipper zips through here, and will bring a risk of snow flurries. Looks like the best chance of flurries will come from about midnight tomorrow night through 6:00 a.m. Thursday. Another words, most folks will be sound asleep when the system comes through. I have to note the NAM shows 0.03" liquid equivalent with this; that would be enough to bring a dusting to these parts. But, the air will be extremely dry.
I do recall a few clippers over the years that brought enough snow for some travel problems... so we will keep a close eye on it. Following the clipper, a fresh surge of cold air slips in here on Thursday. The NAM shows a high of 42 on Thursday, which looks pretty good to me.
WEEKEND: Just about a coin toss at this stage of the game. An Arctic front will move through early Saturday, and become stationary along the Gulf coast. An upper air impulse coming out of Mexico has the potential to form a wave on the front along the coast. The GFS isn't bullish on this, but other models do hint at it, including the UKMET and the ECMWF. If a wave does form, that would bring some risk of snow to parts of Alabama. Maybe even the SOUTHERN half of the state!
For now, I will mention a chance of flurries with the actual frontal passage Saturday morning. Then, I will raise temperatures up a bit for Sunday morning (we had 19 on the package for much of the morning) based on clouds moving in from the south. I also think for now we can mention at least a chance of some light snow Saturday night or early Sunday with a possible wave near Mobile.
I will have a much better grasp on the weekend situation by tomorrow night (after the 00Z runs come into the shop). We will just have to take the ole wait and see approach on this.
LONG RANGE: I still think the rest of February will be cold. The cold air spreads westward, and there continues to be a hint of a southwest flow aloft around here with a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. HMMM... I do indeed expect more fun and games, and sleepless nights in the weather office in weeks to come.
Sure enjoyed seeing the kids at Tuscaloosa Academy today... they were a great audience and you will see them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News this evening at 5:00!
WEATHER BRAINS: We will release the second edition of our new podcast, Weather Brains, late tonight. It is available on iTunes, by RSS, and by the web:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
One of tonight's topics is WINTER WEATHER FORECASTING! Should be a fun roundtable.
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget we will be at Homewood High School this Thursday night at 7:00 p.m... plan on bringing the entire family. We will have some great Alabama weather stories, free t-shirts (for the first 600), and other cool prizes to give away. Be sure and get there early to get a good seat!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
More interesting days ahead in the ole forecast office...
TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY: A clipper zips through here, and will bring a risk of snow flurries. Looks like the best chance of flurries will come from about midnight tomorrow night through 6:00 a.m. Thursday. Another words, most folks will be sound asleep when the system comes through. I have to note the NAM shows 0.03" liquid equivalent with this; that would be enough to bring a dusting to these parts. But, the air will be extremely dry.
I do recall a few clippers over the years that brought enough snow for some travel problems... so we will keep a close eye on it. Following the clipper, a fresh surge of cold air slips in here on Thursday. The NAM shows a high of 42 on Thursday, which looks pretty good to me.
WEEKEND: Just about a coin toss at this stage of the game. An Arctic front will move through early Saturday, and become stationary along the Gulf coast. An upper air impulse coming out of Mexico has the potential to form a wave on the front along the coast. The GFS isn't bullish on this, but other models do hint at it, including the UKMET and the ECMWF. If a wave does form, that would bring some risk of snow to parts of Alabama. Maybe even the SOUTHERN half of the state!
For now, I will mention a chance of flurries with the actual frontal passage Saturday morning. Then, I will raise temperatures up a bit for Sunday morning (we had 19 on the package for much of the morning) based on clouds moving in from the south. I also think for now we can mention at least a chance of some light snow Saturday night or early Sunday with a possible wave near Mobile.
I will have a much better grasp on the weekend situation by tomorrow night (after the 00Z runs come into the shop). We will just have to take the ole wait and see approach on this.
LONG RANGE: I still think the rest of February will be cold. The cold air spreads westward, and there continues to be a hint of a southwest flow aloft around here with a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. HMMM... I do indeed expect more fun and games, and sleepless nights in the weather office in weeks to come.
Sure enjoyed seeing the kids at Tuscaloosa Academy today... they were a great audience and you will see them on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News this evening at 5:00!
WEATHER BRAINS: We will release the second edition of our new podcast, Weather Brains, late tonight. It is available on iTunes, by RSS, and by the web:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
One of tonight's topics is WINTER WEATHER FORECASTING! Should be a fun roundtable.
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget we will be at Homewood High School this Thursday night at 7:00 p.m... plan on bringing the entire family. We will have some great Alabama weather stories, free t-shirts (for the first 600), and other cool prizes to give away. Be sure and get there early to get a good seat!
Weather By The Numbers--Tuesday Edition
February 7, 2006, 11:07 am
* 2 is how many times we have had black ice problems very recently. Jason Simpson thinks we have had that problem more often than usual lately and I believe he is correct
* 10.46 inches is the amount of rain at Birmingham Airport in just the first 5 weeks of 2006
* 4.09 inches is how much surplus we have already built up so far in 2006
* 7 is how many days in the last 10 that we have had measurable rain
* 52 is our normal high temperature during the coldest part of the winter (mid January)
* 56 is our normal high for today
* 32 is our normal low during the coldest part of January
* 34 is our normal low today
* 13 is our coldest daytime high on record (12/14/62)
* 81.82 inches was Birmingham's wettest year in 1929. That was an extremely wet year statewide with disastrous flooding, especially in the southern part of the state
* 16 is how many years old Jason Simpson looks like on TV (he is a few years older than that)
* 3,500 is how many acres have been consumed in the disastrous fires in Orange County, California now underway
* 73 is the normal high temperature for Mexico City in July compared to about 91 in Birmingham. The reason: Mexico City, even though in a valley, is in a high mountain valley.
* 9 is the number of hours of sleep I got last night. That is too much. 7 hours is my ideal, but I will take all I can get. I feel so good today that I want to hike all over Mt. Cheaha.
* 67 is the number of inches of snow that Buffalo normally receives in the winter by February 7
* 21 inches is the current shortage of snow in Buffalo for this season
* 89 was the USA's warmest yesterday in San Juan Canyon, California
* 11 below zero was the coldest in the lower 48 this morning at Orr, Minnesota
* 20 below was the coldest in Alaska at Ugnu-Kuparuk
* 25 was the amazing temperature at Mayo in the Yukon Territory in NW Canada this morning. That is 25 ABOVE ZERO. Normally this time of year that weather station, which has been around a long time, could easily have 50 below.
* 50,000 is the estimated number of miles that James Spann drives each year just for speaking engagements. That number is entirely bogus, of course. I have no idea of the true figure, but this entry is to ask James if he has any kind of estimate for a future column. Also, it would be interesting to know about how many speeches he makes a year...all speeches, not just at schools.
6 is how many cups of coffee I have had so far today...about on track. However, my taste buds and my body yearns for more
76 is how many days I have gone without a frosted brown sugar-cinnamon poptart. Yummy, yummy, yummy! You could say I am poptartless in Trussville.
* 10.46 inches is the amount of rain at Birmingham Airport in just the first 5 weeks of 2006
* 4.09 inches is how much surplus we have already built up so far in 2006
* 7 is how many days in the last 10 that we have had measurable rain
* 52 is our normal high temperature during the coldest part of the winter (mid January)
* 56 is our normal high for today
* 32 is our normal low during the coldest part of January
* 34 is our normal low today
* 13 is our coldest daytime high on record (12/14/62)
* 81.82 inches was Birmingham's wettest year in 1929. That was an extremely wet year statewide with disastrous flooding, especially in the southern part of the state
* 16 is how many years old Jason Simpson looks like on TV (he is a few years older than that)
* 3,500 is how many acres have been consumed in the disastrous fires in Orange County, California now underway
* 73 is the normal high temperature for Mexico City in July compared to about 91 in Birmingham. The reason: Mexico City, even though in a valley, is in a high mountain valley.
* 9 is the number of hours of sleep I got last night. That is too much. 7 hours is my ideal, but I will take all I can get. I feel so good today that I want to hike all over Mt. Cheaha.
* 67 is the number of inches of snow that Buffalo normally receives in the winter by February 7
* 21 inches is the current shortage of snow in Buffalo for this season
* 89 was the USA's warmest yesterday in San Juan Canyon, California
* 11 below zero was the coldest in the lower 48 this morning at Orr, Minnesota
* 20 below was the coldest in Alaska at Ugnu-Kuparuk
* 25 was the amazing temperature at Mayo in the Yukon Territory in NW Canada this morning. That is 25 ABOVE ZERO. Normally this time of year that weather station, which has been around a long time, could easily have 50 below.
* 50,000 is the estimated number of miles that James Spann drives each year just for speaking engagements. That number is entirely bogus, of course. I have no idea of the true figure, but this entry is to ask James if he has any kind of estimate for a future column. Also, it would be interesting to know about how many speeches he makes a year...all speeches, not just at schools.
6 is how many cups of coffee I have had so far today...about on track. However, my taste buds and my body yearns for more
76 is how many days I have gone without a frosted brown sugar-cinnamon poptart. Yummy, yummy, yummy! You could say I am poptartless in Trussville.
Big Problems on the Roads
February 7, 2006, 7:13 am
Black ice, again. It seems like we've had more black ice than I can remember this winter, and today it's the same story. A few of the biggest troubles this morning are on US 78 (Bankhead Parkway) in Forestdale, I-20 in Leeds, I-59 near Trussville, and just before 7:00 we found out that part of I-65 southbound at Oxmoor Rd. is closed due to an accident.
Much of this is related to, guess what!? BLACK ICE.
Also, of note, Cherokee County schools will open 2 hours late today. School will be OPEN in Cherokee County, but classes will start 2 hours late to allow icy roads to thaw.
The problems will end once we get enough sun to warm the roads above freezing. That should be roughly 8 to 9 AM for most of the area, including the shady spots.
Much of this is related to, guess what!? BLACK ICE.
Also, of note, Cherokee County schools will open 2 hours late today. School will be OPEN in Cherokee County, but classes will start 2 hours late to allow icy roads to thaw.
The problems will end once we get enough sun to warm the roads above freezing. That should be roughly 8 to 9 AM for most of the area, including the shady spots.
A Cold Pattern
February 7, 2006, 5:58 am
The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Here is some breaking news... the GFS MOS is actually colder than the forecast package I wrote for the weekend for Sunday morning! I can't recall the last time that has happened. But, lets take events one at a time:
TOMORROW NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A strong clipper system drops down the back side of the long wave trough over the eastern U.S. I still think this might squeeze out a few flurries sometime between 3:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. Thursday. Not much moisture to work with, however, and the main function of this wave is to pull down a fresh supply of colder air. The models are not quite as agressive with the cooling in recent runs; for the moment I have a high of 39 on Thursday. That might be bumped up a bit into the low 40s, but one way or another the day will be cold.
THE WEEKEND: The world much be coming to an end. The GFS MOS has a low of 19 for Birmingham on Sunday morning; I have 22 in the forecast package I wrote. When was the last time that happened?
Cold weather for the weekend is a lock... but how cold, and will we have snow?
The GFS, and now the ECMWF, discount the chance of any snow from a wave coming out of Mexico. Once again models won't really see this until it arrives in the U.S. upper air network, but for now we will roll with the flow and mention only a little light snow with the new surge of cold air on Saturday. Nothing to get excited about, but lets watch it closely in coming days.
LONG RANGE: I still think the rest of the month looks cold. Yeah, I know some runs of the GFS back the cold air northward, but look at the 384 hour output from the 00Z GFS. Big polar vortex over Canada; cold air over much of the nation, and a wavy Arctic front near the Gulf coast. Quite a formula. I still think snow fans will have a few more opportunities before the winter is over.
TODAY: Headed down to Tuscaloosa to speak with a group of children at Tuscaloosa Academy about weather. I will be back in the office for the next video, which will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Here is some breaking news... the GFS MOS is actually colder than the forecast package I wrote for the weekend for Sunday morning! I can't recall the last time that has happened. But, lets take events one at a time:
TOMORROW NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: A strong clipper system drops down the back side of the long wave trough over the eastern U.S. I still think this might squeeze out a few flurries sometime between 3:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. Thursday. Not much moisture to work with, however, and the main function of this wave is to pull down a fresh supply of colder air. The models are not quite as agressive with the cooling in recent runs; for the moment I have a high of 39 on Thursday. That might be bumped up a bit into the low 40s, but one way or another the day will be cold.
THE WEEKEND: The world much be coming to an end. The GFS MOS has a low of 19 for Birmingham on Sunday morning; I have 22 in the forecast package I wrote. When was the last time that happened?
Cold weather for the weekend is a lock... but how cold, and will we have snow?
The GFS, and now the ECMWF, discount the chance of any snow from a wave coming out of Mexico. Once again models won't really see this until it arrives in the U.S. upper air network, but for now we will roll with the flow and mention only a little light snow with the new surge of cold air on Saturday. Nothing to get excited about, but lets watch it closely in coming days.
LONG RANGE: I still think the rest of the month looks cold. Yeah, I know some runs of the GFS back the cold air northward, but look at the 384 hour output from the 00Z GFS. Big polar vortex over Canada; cold air over much of the nation, and a wavy Arctic front near the Gulf coast. Quite a formula. I still think snow fans will have a few more opportunities before the winter is over.
TODAY: Headed down to Tuscaloosa to speak with a group of children at Tuscaloosa Academy about weather. I will be back in the office for the next video, which will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon...
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