If you love a wide variety of weather, you’ve got to love March in Alabama. After a round of severe thunderstorms late yesterday with wind damage across parts of west and central Alabama, today we will have a bright, sunny day, but strong northwest winds will gust to 30 mph at times and temperatures will hold in the 40s all day. Tonight will feature a light freeze.

Then, here comes another fast moving system that will bring clouds tomorrow and some rain by late tomorrow afternoon. The real run part is trying to figure out the possibility of snow around here tomorrow night as colder air aloft moves into the state. Dynamic cooling from above could mean a change from rain to light snow tomorrow night before it all ends. We figure the best chance of snowflakes will be along and north of I-20, mainly from 10:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. Thursday. Surface temperatures should remain just above freezing which should eliminate any travel problems, but these strong cold core upper waves always spook us a bit. We will sure take a close look at new model data later this morning and adjust the forecast later today if needed.

Thursday should be dry and cool, and then another cold front drives in here late Thursday night, which will bring another shot of cold air on Friday. But, don’t get used to the cold weather because we should warm up nicely this weekend, with 60s on Saturday, and highs close to 70 by Sunday. Then, early next week, we might be setting up for another round of strong or severe thunderstorms. So, over the next seven days we will have warm weather, cold weather, severe thunderstorms, strong winds, and maybe even a few snow flakes along the way. Needless to say, never a dull moment in the weather office this time of the year. April and May are always busy too, so we are ready for a little vacation by the time we get to June!

.....NWS has Chilton County under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 7:30, wind gusts could reach 70 mph as line of intense thunderstorms progresses rapidly eastward.

.....Reports from both Moundville and Greensboro in Hale County indicate no unusually high winds as the storms moved through there

.....Severe Thunderstorm Watch still in effect until 11 pm for about the south half of Alabama...Birmingham Metro area not included.

.....all of the current batch of severe storms passing south of Birmingham

.....Scan down for earlier reports...

More late notes...also scan down for previous notes.

.....Wind gusts to 75 mph with 13/4 size hail near Meridian in East Mississippi

.....Roof blown off Kemper County, East Mississippi

.....at 5:45 pm, the York Police Department reported trees down in York, in West Alabama's Sumter County.

...Severe thunderstorm warnings for Greene, Marengo, Sumter counties in West Alabama.

.....house shaking thunder now in the NE part of Trussville, moderate to heavy rain.

...More later.

Late afternoon notes...

.....The NWS has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 tonight for the south half of Alabama. While this watch does not include the immediate Birmingham area, it does include Hale, Perry, Chilton, Coosa, Tallapoosa and Randolph counties southward to the Florida border and to the coast.

.....Significant damage reported late this afternoon in North Newton County in Central Mississippi. This is between Jackson and Meridian. Those intense thunderstorms were moving east...in fact one of the severe thunderstorms east of Philadelphia, Miss., was moving east at 70 mph!

.....Heavy rain was falling in parts of Tuscaloosa and Pickens County. Eutaw and Demopolis will be in the path of some very strong storms.

.....A Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Sumter County in West Alabama adjacent to the Mississippi border.

We continue to watch and wait....

The Monday afternoon video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Whew... lots to discuss. We will focus on the two main events this week:

STRONG STORMS TONIGHT: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather across all of Alabama tonight. Again, a classic case of great dynamics, and marginal thermodynamics. We are in rain-cooled air now over north-central Alabama (58 in Riverchase with rain as I type this). The latest WRF pushes the big squall line in here late tonight, almost at midnight, so maybe the air will have time to recover. We do notice CAPE values over 500 now over southwest Alabama with higher dewpoints down there.

Bottom line is that the threat is not a great one, but as always we encourage everyone to pay attention. Based on wind profiles, the line of storms tonight could produce some wind damage in scattered spots. We will sure keep an eye on the situation.

J.B. Elliott thinks we might have a few flurries on the back side of the rain during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, and he might be correct. It won't amount to anything if it happens, however. Sunshine returns tomorrow but the weather will be windy and cold with 40s all day. We should have a freeze early Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW? The models continue to trend colder with the short wave coming in here late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain should move in here late Wednesday, becoming widespread Wednesday evening. Then, as thickness values drop, I fully expect the rain to change to light snow Wednesday night and during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. Surface temperatures will most likely be in the mid 30s, so I doubt that we will have any travel issues, but it is not impossible.

Any accumulation? Not likely. But again, not impossible. Best chance of snow would be from about 9:00 Wednesday night through 3:00 a.m. Thursday. And again, it would be light, and most likely with surface temperatures in the mid 30s. We will pay much more attention to this after tonight's thunderstorm episode.

Another shot of cold air rolls in here Thursday night and Friday... I think the GFS temperatures are horrible. I doubt if we see 50 on Friday, and a freeze is very possible either Friday or Saturday morning. Then, a decent moderating trend begins over the weekend.

Gotta get back to radar duty...

.....Some showers now in progress over parts of Alabama. Over in Mississippi, some moderate to heavy showers. However, by far, the strongest thunderstorms limited to SE Texas.

...dew points over North and Central Alabama still very low...in the 30s and 40s. This means the air is still very stable. Also the extensive clouds over our part of the country helps inhibit the atmosphere from becoming more nervous.
However, dew points now in the 60s over South Mississippi and Coastal Alabama.

.....still a slight risk of severe weather later this afternoon and evening...mainly late afternoon through the evening. Still does not appear to be a major threat but we will watch and wait.

The Monday morning video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Thanks again to everyone at Mississippi State for the hospitality this weekend. We really had a great time.

We are starting off the day with a cool and stable airmass... can we recover later today for a round of severe weather? Certainly possible, but instability values will be marginal. From our vantage point the best chance of severe storms will be west of I-65 this evening. Wind fields will be strong, and some storms could produce damaging wind. And, based on the projected wind profile you cannot rule out the chance of a few small isolated tornadoes. Looks like a classic case of an early season set-up with good dynamics, but marginal thermodynamics. Best chance of severe storms most likely from about 4:00 until 9:00 p.m.

Tomorrow will be sharply colder as the stay in the 40s all day with a very brisk northwest wind. But, sunshine should return.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING SNOW? Well, well, well... a nice strong vort max rolls from east Oklahoma to the Mississippi coast, and spins up a small surface low on the Gulf coast Wednesday night. As usual, the critical thickness values are right on top of Birmingham. The lower atmosphere could be cold enough for a few snow flakes here, with perhaps the best chance north of us. Don't think we will have enough moisture return for a big event here, but lets get past this thunderstorm situation later today and we can focus on this event.

A COLD MORNING: We should mention we are expecting a pretty good freeze here Wednesday morning. Winter is not over yet.

Going to go over to the seven day and update that to account for present thinking. Will have more info here shorttly on today's storm threat.

March 7, 1962 was Ash Wednesday, the high holy day signifying the beginning of the Lenten period. An unusual series of factors were coming together to create an especially bad situation along the U.S. East Coast. There was a new moon, which meant spring tides along the coast that “sprung” higher than they normally would. Twice every 29.5 days, the Earth is aligned with the sun

At syzygy, high tides are higher than they normally would be. The second factor was that the moon was at perigee. The moon’s orbit around the Earth is not perfectly circular. It is shaped more like an oval. The Earth is located closer to one end than the other, meaning that once during each orbit, the moon is much closer to Earth than at other times. Nearly 225,000 miles closer in fact. When the Earth and moon are at the closest point, it is called perigee. Again, the proximity of the moon results in higher tides than normal. The two events occur within 36 hours of each other a few times each year. On this date in 1962, they were within 30 minutes of one another.

By themselves, these two events would not cause very much trouble, but they occurred simultaneously with a huge late season nor’easter, known as the Great Atlantic Storm to meteorologists. Locals christened it the Ash Wednesday Storm. Its forward progress blocked by high pressure to the north, for three days beginning on Ash Wednesday, the huge extratropical storm unleashed its fury without warning from North Carolina to New England. With each succeeding high tide, water levels rose higher and higher, inundating beachfront communities. Massive waves pounded 500 miles of beach, eroding the dunes. When it was over, 1,800 structures were destroyed. Damages totaled $500 million. Forty people perished in the storm.