We will be watching the Gulf of Mexico closely for the rest of the week, as the computer models are trying to spin up the first organized tropical system of the 2005 hurricane season. While the early season systems rarely become major hurricanes, they can be prolific rain producers. The first tropical storm of the 2001 season, Allison, is a classic example.

The tropical storm formed just off the Texas coast of the Gulf of Mexico on June 5, 2001. With sustained winds at around 60 miles per hour, well below hurricane strength, the storm was not expected to cause much damage. Coastal flooding affected Galveston as Allison made landfall. Houston sustained moderate flooding at first, which began to recede as the storm's remains drifted north toward Lufkin. On June 8, however, the storm system made an unexpected turn and by nightfall had stalled directly over Houston. This second period of rain overwhelmed southeast Texas and was responsible for catastrophic flooding.

Many areas reported upwards of 10” of rain while the Port of Houston's rain total reached 37” by the morning of June 9. Over two hundred thousand customers were without electrical power at some point during the disaster. Several hospitals at the Texas Medical Center had to evacuate their patients in total darkness after flood waters disabled emergency power generators in the basement. Also, thousands of laboratory animals at the Baylor College of Medicine perished, destroying years of medical research. Forty-one deaths are directly related to the heavy rain, flooding, tornadoes, and high surf generated by Tropical Storm Allison and its remnant subtropical circulation. The death toll by state is as follows: Texas 23, Florida 8, Pennsylvania 7, Louisiana 1, Mississippi 1, and Virginia 1. Twenty-seven of these deaths were due to drowning in freshwater flooding.

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

No big change here over the next few days. Warm, very humid, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. You know the routine.

Most of our attention will be focused on tropical weather...

Looks like our ole pal the GFS has finally locked on to a real tropical system that is beginning to form over the northwest Caribbean. An Air Force hurricane hunter is scheduled to fly into this area tomorrow if needed.

The GFS develops a tropical system, and moves it northward into the Gulf of Mexico, with the ultimate landfall over the Mississippi coast on Friday. We caution you that model output is all over the place; the GFDL wants to take it over to central America; the new Canadian run takes it to near Apalachicola by early Sunday; the European doesn't think it will exist at all. Take your pick.

We will be waiting and watching... but our weekend weather will really depend on what happens in the Gulf.

Then... the GFS shows another tropical system developing south of Cuba, coming up toward Miami in about one week. Looks like things are hopping in the tropics really early in the season.

Early season tropical systems rarely become major hurricanes, but they can be big time rain producers, like Allison and Alberto.

At 2:45 this afternoon, still very few showers or storms in the Birmingham area westward to the Mississippi border.

By far, most of the storms are over on the east side of the state. It is pouring in Cherokee County around Centre That area has nearly an inch yesterday (At Weiss Dam)

Other heavier showers and storms were over North and NW Tallapoosa County.

When those storms passed through Rockford, in Coosa County, they dumped 1.14 inches of rain in about 45 minutes early this afternoon. (Thanks to Scott for that report.)

Early this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing and increasing. However, unlike yesterday, most of the showers and storms are over East Alabama.

Shortly after 1 o'clock, the strongest storms, and heaviest rain, extended from near Anniston southwestward to Coosa County near Rockford.

Everything is moving eastward.

So far, very few storms from Greater Birmingham Area west to the Mississippi border.

In the warm, humid air, more storms will be forming however.

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The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not much change in our weather today and tomorrow; temperatures aloft a little colder than normal, lots of low level moisture (although dewpoints are just a tad lower this morning), and the possibility of an outflow boundary from storms late last night to the west of us. We will maintain the chance of scattered to numerous showers and storms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Still some hint the showers could thin out a bit by the end of the week. Then, the weather over the weekend all depends on...

TROPICAL ISSUES: The GFS develops a tropical system over the western tip of Cuba by Thursday. That, in itself, is no real big deal since the GFS wants to develop tropical systems all the time that never happen. BUT, in this case the UKMET, the Canadian, NAM, and GFDL all want to agree with the GFS, which gives the solution some credibility.

The GFS takes the tropical system northward into the Gulf, and puts it into the Mississippi coast on Saturday. But, if you have a beach trip planned don't get too upset, because the other models are all over the road. The GFDL takes the system to Mexico and the Canadian puts in into the Tampa Bay area. Take your pick.

Satellite images do show a very unsettled Caribbean this morning, so the concept of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system is certainly not far fetched. There just isn't much confidence in trying to tell you where it goes at this point. This will be pretty much our focus here for the rest of the week.

Keep in mind early season systems rarely develop into major hurricanes, but they can be big time rain producers. If the GFS happens to be correct, some major changes will be needed in our weekend forecast, needless to say!

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