Way, way behind tonight... still doing the morning radio feed for tomorrow. Wanted to post a few thoughts before I get back to radio:

*I will have the usual long morning post by 6:30 a.m. tomorrow. Shortly after that, I will post a long list of recommended actions for everyone who lives in the ABC 33/40 viewing area. Now is the time to prepare. We will all have to prepare for extended power outages... so if you need something you might want to run to the stores early Friday before the crowds hit later Friday and Saturday.

*Model output and the NHC track and now very tightly clustered around Pensacola. The 00Z NAM is even getting into the game with a track along with the others. This will mean great potential for widespread tree damage over most of Alabama. Hopefully Dennis will come in a little east of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, but there is no guarantee that will happen. It will be a very close call.

*I am still getting a ton of e-mail from people asking if they should cancel their beach trip this weekend. You can forget about a beach trip this weekend if you are going anywhere from Dauphin Island to Gulf Shores to Destin to Panama City.

Back to radio... and home for a short nap. Brian Peters will be picking up a program for me at the Calhoun County LEPC meeting tomorrow in Anniston... then he is off to the coast. Sure is great having good help!

On the way up on the elevator this evening we found another sign that Dennis is looming.

"In anticipation of the landfall of Hurricane Dennis please move all patio furniture inside."

Talking with Elyssa Jacobs, age 12, of Rockwall, Texas the disappointment was very evident. "We spent 12 hours getting here and it has been trouble since day one. We stayed at Seaside and their beach was gone because of Arlene. We came over here to Gulf Shores and the beach has been great for 24 hours, but now it looks like Dennis will ruin it for us here too."

Sara Lavender, age 13 of Alicevile, Alabama said she had a great time in Gulf shores but she is worried about Dennis. "I just decorated my room in the condo and now Dennis the menace will probably come wreck it. This stinks I am very upset about this."

Most people down here are now trying to figure out what to do about the rest of their vacations. Do you leave tomorrow before the rush of traffic ??? or do you wait and enjoy what should be a beautiful Friday and then battle the traffic out on Saturday. Not sure what I will do since I am taking care of my 2 yeard old and 4 year old.... we might make an early exit..... from what we are hearing tonight evacuations maybe on the way for tomorrow...

John Oldshue in Gulf Shores

NHC reports Dennis will be upgraded to a category four on the 10:00 p.m. advisory.

Pressure down to 951 mb, max recon flight level winds 131 mph. This thing is a monster now...

GFDL and GFS shifting west... increasing the threat of a direct hit to the Alabama coast...

Full package will out soon... see our tropical page

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

As we get closer to the arrival of Dennis... a few program notes concerning ABC 33/40 TV

Saturday we will have a 30 minute special from 5:00 until 5:30 p.m. We will tell you everything you need to know to be prepared for Dennis, and have live reports from our team on the coast.

We will air "Dancing With The Stars" from 6:00 until 7:00... part of that program was interrupted last night due to a tornado warning for Clay county. We got word from ABC late today we could run the show again at that time.

We will begin "wall to wall" coverage of Dennis at some point Sunday morning, before landfall, and we will remain with non-stop coverage as the storm moves all the way through central Alabama.

The blog will be very active. Brian Peters will file posts from the Gulf coast, and updates will be posted frequently on our end. When I go on TV for the non-stop coverage, J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray will have you covered here.

Stay tuned...

He continues to grow stronger and the National Hurricane Center fears that he may be near Cat. 4 in about 12 hours.

The eyewall is now closed.

At 4 pm, CDT, here are the fast facts:

LOCATION: Near Latitude 19.0N, Longitude 76.6W which is about 90 miles SE of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. That's also about 125 miles SW of Guantanamo, Cuba.

WINDS: Now sustained winds up some to 115 mph with higher gusts. So he is now a dangerous Category Three Hurricane.

PRESSURE: 957 millibars at the center...or 28.26 inches.

LATEST TRACK FORECAST: The official NHC track calls for landfall on the Extreme NW Florida Coast near Pensacola early Sunday afternoon. Winds at that time are expected to be sustained 120-125 mph with gusts as high as 150. The center will then proceed northward through west Alabama generally along the Camden-Tuscaloosa-Hamilton-Muscle Shoals line., reaching NW Alabama at mid-day Monday.

This spells bad news for Alabama. While Dennis should be downgraded to a tropical depression by the time he reaches Extreme NW Alabama, he may maintain winds high enough to bring down thousands of trees over a wide swath of the state.

Flooding rains will also be likely and the ever present threat of spinoff tornadoes. The best chance of those will be east and southeast of the center so places like Montgomery, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden and Huntsville (to name a few) could be subject to those.

All of this depends on the path of Dennis. Our usual caution, projecting the exact path that far ahead is prone to a lot of error and changes. It is highly advisable to keep abreast of the latest.

Evacuations from the Alabama-NW Florida Coast will likely get underway tomorrow.

SPOT CHECKS
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, steady rain, wind ESE 37 mph

We are on West Beach in Gulf Shores. My sister is in town and we are vacationing with her and having a great time. Beautiful sunshine, no clouds and the water is calm. Much different from yesterday when the waves were crashing on the shore from Cindy and must have been 5-7 feet.

I did not arrive in time to see the big show, but the cleaning lady told us all about the water getting into the condo parking lot. I guess the big story is the psychological effects that all of this is having. There were some rattled folks yesterday, but now all eyes have turned to Dennis. The fear is evident in the voice of many of the folks I have talked to down here. Kind of strange to hear that this far in advance, but I guess that is what a hurricane like Ivan will do to people. I am a popular man as people try to figure out where the storm is headed but I have to say I don't have any secret answers. My feeling is east of here.

The beach, by the way, made it through Cindy fine and looks beautiful with all the restoration that has taken place. The sound of bulldozers woke us up this morning and I thought it was part of the beach restoration, but as we talked with the condo folks we found out they are already building berms to protect the area. That is it for now. More after some shrimp and oysters.

John Oldshue

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Models have shifted the track of Dennis to the east, and the NHC track is now on the west side of the guidance blend. Just 24 hours ago, NHC was on the west side of the guidance. Like we have been saying, everything can change.

NHC has Dennis going into Pensacola during the day Sunday. Most of the models have it going into the Florida panhandle between Pensacola and Apalachicola. You can bet our friends on the Alabama coast are breathing a LITTLE easier now; all of these tracks would put Alabama's coast on the "good side", with an offshore flow. There will be some damage and flooding, but the severe damage and most serious problems will be along and EAST of the point of landfall. Just like with Ivan last September. But, I have to stress the models and the track could be pulled back to the west with time, but that seems more unlikely with each model run we see. Nobody really needs to relax all the way from New Orleans around the horn to Tampa Bay.

The GFS now puts Dennis into the Florida coast south of Tallahassee, and east of Apalachicola at 7:00 Sunday morning! The GFS moves Dennis to Dothan at 1:00 p.m. Sunday, and to a point near Birmingham around midnight Sunday night.

SHIPS intensity guidance still suggests 130 mph sustained winds are possible at the time of landfall. Like I mentioned here this morning, there is little skill in intensity forecasts of major early season hurricanes like Dennis, they are very rare in early July. But, we sure see nothing to prevent this from becoming a category three hurricane by the time of landfall.

BEACH TRIP? If you are planning a trip to the Gulf coast anywhere from Gulf Shores to Panama City this weekend, I would forget it. Evacuations will begin on Saturday in the hurricane warning area, which will include much of the central Gulf coast. Weather will improve along the coast on Monday... when it will be safe to go.

INLAND TRACK: The GFS takes Dennis from Birmingham to Nashville, and then eastward to the Atlantic coast, where it comes back over the water and moves northeast toward Cape Cod. It shows no stalling like it had yesterday because of a significant upper trough forecast to form over the eastern U.S. by the middle of next week.

If the NHC track is correct, Dennis has the potential to create a damage path and flooding situation similar to Opal in 1995. This would bring the potential for widespread power outages through much of the state. I will write about the specific impact of Dennis for the Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden areas in this space tomorrow morning... that will give us a few more model runs to see and make for higher forecast confidence.

Watch the video for more details!

The new NHC package is out; the track for Dennis was adjusted a little to the east, and the timeline has moved forward again. Landfall on the new track is near Pensacola Sunday AFTERNOON...


I will write my usual detailed afternoon post by 2:30 or 3:00. On this track the Alabama coast would be on the "good side" of the storm, with significant damage from Pensacola east to Navarre Beach and Destin. But again, this could change!

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

After a long day yesterday dealing with Cindy, we turn our attention to Dennis.

No change in the NHC track since last night; their morning package takes Dennis to near Gulf Shores as a a major hurricane Sunday evening (the arrival time has been moved up a bit).

The SHIP intensity model brings sustained winds to 113 knots at landfall; that is 130 mph. I have not been able to see the GFDL early this morning, but yesterday it brought the intensity to 127 knots in the Gulf of Mexico (146 mph).

There isn't much experience for any of us in dealing with major hurricanes in early July since they are rare so early in the season. For now, the best course of action for those along the central Gulf coast is to prepare for a hurricane potentially as strong as Ivan or Frederic. We can hope that Dennis will not reach that intensity level, but you sure can't ignore the environmental conditions or the SHIP and GFDL output.

The GFS agrees with the NHC track, and takes Dennis into coastal Alabama Sunday evening.

After landfall, the GFS takes the system to near Memphis, which also agrees with the NHC track. This would mean the greatest chance of inland wind damage and flooding will be over east Mississippi and west Alabama, in the general area between I-55 and I-65.

A hurricane watch will be required for the central Gulf coast by tomorrow night, and the warning will probably go up Saturday afternoon.

ALL OF THIS COULD CHANGE. The model guidance did swing west yesterday afternoon, but this morning they are back in agreement with the NHC track. Lets give NHC credit, they did not pull their track westward yesterday with model output, but held their ground, and now their track is right in the middle of the model guidance envelope. There is still potential for rather large errors in a track forecast three days in advance. But, the consistency of the GFS sure gives credibility to a direct threat to the Alabama Gulf coast. The GFS did a nice job with Cindy.

ANOTHER CONCERN: The GFS wants to stall Dennis near Memphis due to a blocking ridge; if this happens we could have some very serious flooding issues inland. Ivan kept moving along at a very nice pace when it moved through here in September of last year.

SHORT TERM: Just a few isolated showers around here today, and tomorrow and Saturday should be rain-free.

The next map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Watch the blog closely as Dennis approaches; we will use this as our main outlet for our thoughts and forecast ideas. Thanks in advance to J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, Jason Simpson, John Oldshue, and Brian Peters for their work... looks like some very long days ahead.