There was a great deal of media attention this week to the updated forecasts for the 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Both NOAA and Dr. Bill Gray released updated forecast for this season that reflected even higher predictions of storm counts than earlier announced. NOAA is now calling for 18-21 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), 9-11 hurricanes and 5-7 major hurricanes (category three or higher.) The averages for a season are ten named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes.

There have already been nine tropical storms and hurricanes, two of which went on to become hurricanes. Dennis and Emily both were major hurricanes. Despite this unprecedented early season activity, the peak of hurricane season is still ahead.

The increased activity continues a trend of above normal activity that started in 1995. Since then, seven of the ten North Atlantic Hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity. The only years that have been below normal were El Nino years, a known limiting factor in North Atlantic Hurricane formation.

All of this increased activity has raised the concern that there might be a correlation between increased hurricane counts and global climate change. An MIT researcher recently published a report in the science journal Nature last week that indicated there is a correlation between global warming and the intensity and duration of hurricanes. His research indicated that as global temperatures continue to rise as expected, we will be faced with more powerful, longer lasting hurricanes.

Dr. Bill Gray, a leading hurricane climatologist and NOAA researcher Chris Landsea disagree with the claim that global warming is leading to more hurricanes. There is a clearly demonstrated climate cycle called the Multi-decadal oscillation. It is tied closely to the Great Oceanic Conveyor Belt. Every couple of decades, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures rise in response to changes in worldwide oceanic currents. The result is a 15-20 year period of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic. We have been in this active phase for ten years now. Just how long will is last? No one really knows. Keep your fingers crossed that all these storms will miss land.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM....INCLUDES CITY OF HOOVER
At 3:30 p.m. the heaviest precipitation extends from the Hoover area, up across Vestavia then into the Homewood area. Additional storms have formed just east of Downtown and in the Irondale area. Brian Peters reports that he picked up 1.41 inches during the heavier rain that has now moved west and weakened. Additional heavy storms are forming between I-20 and I-59 over East Alabama. This activity will move westward over the next couple of hours. Be alert for deadly lightning and very heavy rainfall amonts in a short period of time.

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 5 pm CDT for South Central Jefferson and Western Shelby Counties...including the City of Hoover... Inverness... Cahaba Heights... Riverchase... northern Pelham and Lake Purdy.

Heavy rain continues over the warning areas at 3:15 p.m. Remember...stay out of areas with moving water. Turn around... don't drown.

Well, our our up and down, here today, maybe gone tomorrow tropical depression in the Atlantic has gotten its act together enough to be named Tropical Storm Irene. It is located about 1160 miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands.

The official forecast track curves it well north of the islands to a point some 200 miles southeast of Bermuda in five days. Only slow intensification is forecast, with Irene not becoming a hurricane during the forecast period.

This note from the NHC discussion...
THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES ON ITS RECORD-SETTING PACE. IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS HAVE FORMED.

So far, we have had nine named storms and two hurricanes this year in the Atlantic. The nine tropical storms is getting very close to the normal number for an entire season (ten.)

- Bill Murray

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The weak closed low at 500 millibars seems to be defying prediction by the GFS model. Today's solution is much different than the one yesterday, but this one looks pretty good. The weak low is over North Alabama this morning and is expected to get picked up in the flow and move out of the area instead of meandering around and inching westward. Showers were fairly numerous across the southeast US yesterday and believe we'll see much the same scenario today. Still, not everyone will get wet - just the nature of showers.

SPC has outlooked northern MS, a good portion of western and central Tennessee, and western Kentucky for a slight risk of severe storms. The major threat today will be damaging wind in the form of downbursts with the potential for marginally severe hail in the three-quarter to one inch range.

Tropical Depression 9 continues to struggle. The center reformed north yesterday and did the same thing over night. Atmospheric and sea surface conditions become more favorable over the next 24 to 48 hours so some strengthening of the storm is possible. One of the computer model is even suggesting it may attain hurricane status in four or five days. The track is out over the Atlantic, so no threat to any land mass. Bermuda may feel some affects of the storm in six or seven days depending on how much of a northward track it takes.

Clouds helped to keep temperatures down a tad yesterday and that could happen again today.

I enjoyed my outing in the dunking booth at KidFest 2005 in Helena yesterday morning. Chuck Johnson from WZZK followed me in the dunking booth, and I had the opportunity - though it took three throws to do it - to be the first to dunk Chuck! It was fun and a wonderful way to give back to the community.

James will return all fresh from his vacation tomorrow. Have a great week and God bless.

-Brian-

On July 25th, residents on Popof Island in the Aleutians about 500 miles southwest of Anchorage saw a rare sight: a tornado touching down on a nearby mountain. Tornadoes in Alaska are rare, and even more rare is a report of one, since the population is so sparse in the state.

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/v-story_gallery_0/story/6777179p-6666328c.html

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/classroom_sand_point.php