I don’t anyone without a heavy heart these days. Images of the thousands of suffering people from New Orleans and coastal Mississippi will be on our minds for many years to come. We have just witnessed history, the “big one” that was feared for years in New Orleans. I doubt if we ever know how many people died in Hurricane Katrina, but we do know about the survivors who are now scattered all across the southeast U.S. Thousands are here in Alabama with us. And, there is a good chance a good percentage of these folks will wind up staying here, becoming our permanent neighbors.
While I am really disgusted with those who are playing the “blame game” now on the initial response, I am thrilled to see how a majority of the American people are coming together to help our neighbors… including people right here in Alabama. People are volunteering their time and money in remarkable ways. There will be plenty of time to play the “blame game” in the years ahead, but in my opinion this is not the time.
Thursday evening, we will give everyone in Alabama a chance to pitch in and help. We will be on the air live on ABC 33/40 from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. from the Birmingham-Jefferson Civic Center for a “telethon” to help the survivors of Hurricane Katrina. I will be joined by Brenda Ladun, Dave Baird, and Linda Mays, along with a number of local celebrities and dignitaries who simply want to help. We will do our best during the program to communicate the needs of the evacuees here in Alabama, and in other parts of the nation through agencies like the American Red Cross and the Salvation Army. We promise to get you to the NFL opening night football game on time at 8:00. Hope you can join us!
Hurricane Benefit Telethon Thursday Evening
September 7, 2005, 9:48 pm
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Ophelia In No Hurry
September 7, 2005, 2:44 pm
The Wednesday afternoon map discussion is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me first off encourage you to read the post below this one, an article from a Syracuse, NY newspaper with the story behind the incredible statement released by NWS meteorologist Robert Ricks in New Orleans Sunday morning before Katrina's arrival on the coast. Ken Graham of the National Weather Service calls Ricks a "real hero". I totally agree.
AROUND HERE: Also scroll down to read the list of low temperatures around Alabama this morning compiled by J.B. Elliott. Fall is my favorite season, and those golden days of October are just around the corner. No real change here, warm days, cool nights, and no rain through the weekend. Temperatures where they should be in early September.
TROPICS: That big mass in the western Gulf is headed toward Texas... it should bring some beneficial rain to parts of the Rio Grande Valley that have been in drought conditions for a long time.
But, of course, we focus our attention on Ophelia.
The latest recon shows a pressure of 997 mb with max flight level winds of 50 knots. Looks like Ophelia will be a hurricane tonight or tomorrow just off the east coast of Florida.
Once again, we are dealing with model madness. Some models take Ophelia out to sea, some do the loop action with no net motion for a number of days, and some want to take it to the west. NHC track shows little motion through early next week.
The 12Z run of the GFS takes the system on a rather wild journey across the Atlantic, with the system getting close to Jacksonville and the Outer Banks of North Carolina before finally moving out to sea in 10 days or so. This solution would mean no impact here.
On the other hand, the GFDL and the ECMWF continue to move the system this way. The latest run of the GFDL has Ophelia near Tuscaloosa early next week, after moving westward through Georgia.
I still am not convinced this thing can get north of Jacksonville, or north of latitude 31 north. I agree with the NHC it sits in the same general area for a few days before making up her mind.
This thing in some ways reminds me of Jeanne from last year. The idea of the system ultimately moving west, and maybe even southwest, across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf indeed is worth considering. We wait and watch, as usual.
BEACH TRIPS: Lots of questions from people wanting to know if they should cancel weekend trips to Panama City, Destin, Gulf Shores, etc. At this time I would not cancel, but pay close attention to these discussions. If you have a fear of a hurricane ruining your beach trip, then you would never be able to go from June through November, the time of the Atlantic hurricane season! You always have a risk of a tropical system in the summer or early fall along the central Gulf coast. That is just the way it is.
TELETHON: Don't forget to watch our two hour special tomorrow night from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. on ABC 33/40... you will learn specific ways you can help hurricane survivors. We will be live from the BJCC.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me first off encourage you to read the post below this one, an article from a Syracuse, NY newspaper with the story behind the incredible statement released by NWS meteorologist Robert Ricks in New Orleans Sunday morning before Katrina's arrival on the coast. Ken Graham of the National Weather Service calls Ricks a "real hero". I totally agree.
AROUND HERE: Also scroll down to read the list of low temperatures around Alabama this morning compiled by J.B. Elliott. Fall is my favorite season, and those golden days of October are just around the corner. No real change here, warm days, cool nights, and no rain through the weekend. Temperatures where they should be in early September.
TROPICS: That big mass in the western Gulf is headed toward Texas... it should bring some beneficial rain to parts of the Rio Grande Valley that have been in drought conditions for a long time.
But, of course, we focus our attention on Ophelia.
The latest recon shows a pressure of 997 mb with max flight level winds of 50 knots. Looks like Ophelia will be a hurricane tonight or tomorrow just off the east coast of Florida.
Once again, we are dealing with model madness. Some models take Ophelia out to sea, some do the loop action with no net motion for a number of days, and some want to take it to the west. NHC track shows little motion through early next week.
The 12Z run of the GFS takes the system on a rather wild journey across the Atlantic, with the system getting close to Jacksonville and the Outer Banks of North Carolina before finally moving out to sea in 10 days or so. This solution would mean no impact here.
On the other hand, the GFDL and the ECMWF continue to move the system this way. The latest run of the GFDL has Ophelia near Tuscaloosa early next week, after moving westward through Georgia.
I still am not convinced this thing can get north of Jacksonville, or north of latitude 31 north. I agree with the NHC it sits in the same general area for a few days before making up her mind.
This thing in some ways reminds me of Jeanne from last year. The idea of the system ultimately moving west, and maybe even southwest, across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf indeed is worth considering. We wait and watch, as usual.
BEACH TRIPS: Lots of questions from people wanting to know if they should cancel weekend trips to Panama City, Destin, Gulf Shores, etc. At this time I would not cancel, but pay close attention to these discussions. If you have a fear of a hurricane ruining your beach trip, then you would never be able to go from June through November, the time of the Atlantic hurricane season! You always have a risk of a tropical system in the summer or early fall along the central Gulf coast. That is just the way it is.
TELETHON: Don't forget to watch our two hour special tomorrow night from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. on ABC 33/40... you will learn specific ways you can help hurricane survivors. We will be live from the BJCC.
by James Spann
in Tropical Weather
The Famous NWS Statement
September 7, 2005, 2:04 pm
We have mentioned the now famous NWS statement on this blog many times in the past ten days... the one issued Sunday morning by the NWS in New Orleans before Katrina's arrival on the Gulf coast. Turns out this was a "canned statement", adjusted a bit by local New Orleans NWS forecaster Robert Ricks. Even though it was not original, it took real guts to hit the "send button".
Here is an article from columnist on the statement from Sean Kirst of the Post-Standard in Syracuse, NY:
Ominous words foretold catastrophic suffering, saved lives
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
SEAN KIRST
POST-STANDARD COLUMNIST
In the coming weeks and months, we will hear many tales about the heroes of Hurricane Katrina. We will hear about rescuers who put themselves at risk to save a neighbor or to pull some stranger out of the storm.
But the decision that probably saved more lives than any other was made on the morning of Aug. 28, inside a National Weather Service office in Slidell, La. It was made by meteorologists who went to a computer and released a document containing apocalyptic language.
Across the United States, Americans read that warning and realized what was coming.
Ten days later, those words read almost as a prophecy. That "inland hurricane warning" was released from Slidell at 10 a.m. that day, according to Walter Zaleski, the Texas-based southern region warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service.
Issued the day before Katrina made landfall, the warning described much of what would happen to New Orleans. Indeed, while some officials in Washington, D.C., have called for privatizing at least part of the National Weather Service, that agency was almost alone within the federal government in quickly comprehending what this hurricane could do.
It warned of "water shortages (that) will make human suffering incredible by modern standards." It warned that "much of the area will be uninhabitable." It warned of "roof and wall fail-
ure" for at least half of the "well-constructed homes" in the region.
In essence, it predicted that New Orleans would be destroyed.
"It's some of the strongest language we've ever used," Zaleski said. Hundreds of thousands of people who read the warnings and had the resources to flee got out of town.
The astounding thing is this: Despite the chillingly accurate nature of the warning, it was not specifically written for the coming of Katrina. The wording, Zaleski said, was part of a catastrophic hurricane "template" created years ago by the weather service. It was filed away in a computer, awaiting the day when a Category 5 hurricane threatened a heavily populated region.
The meteorologists near New Orleans, Zaleski said, pulled it up and did their jobs.
"There is no doubt," he said, "that our warnings from our weather service office in Slidell contributed to saving many thousands of lives."
The language had to be extreme, he said. He recalled how a massive low-pressure system battered Florida in 1993. The weather service issued storm warnings, but they did not trigger much concern in many residents. Twenty-six people died in the storm.
In what Zaleski described as an internal "post-mortem," the weather service realized that residents accustomed to threats of full-fledged hurricanes did not react or respond with high alarm.
"In 1993, some people said, 'It didn't sound (as bad as it turned out to be),' " Zaleski said.
Weather service officials remembered, he said. They prepared a series of what Zaleski calls general "impact statements" that used language meant to create certain reactions.
"We knew that people respond to key words," he said. "The weather service, working with social scientists, learned that warnings would be effective with key words and impacts, not only in hurricane warnings but in warnings across the board, (including) blizzards or tornadoes."
On Aug. 28, the meteorologists in Slidell understood what they were facing, Zaleski said. They did not want to leave any chance that residents of New Orleans would follow basic human nature and try to minimize the threat.
Those meteorologists released a warning that spoke of "human suffering" and an "uninhabitable" region. It might seem as if it were written specifically for New Orleans, but a careful reading 10 days later underlines Zaleski's point: The same warning would have worked if a Category 5 hurricane had approached Long Island or Miami or any populated region.
As for identifying the weather service officials who issued the warning, Zaleski said the staff at the office in Slidell declined Tuesday to speak about it publicly. "They're weary, their own homes have been destroyed and they're trying to do their work at the same time," he said.
But if the warnings helped to save countless lives, aren't they heroes?
"Anyone who kept working during that time," Zaleski said, "was a hero."
Here is an article from columnist on the statement from Sean Kirst of the Post-Standard in Syracuse, NY:
Ominous words foretold catastrophic suffering, saved lives
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
SEAN KIRST
POST-STANDARD COLUMNIST
In the coming weeks and months, we will hear many tales about the heroes of Hurricane Katrina. We will hear about rescuers who put themselves at risk to save a neighbor or to pull some stranger out of the storm.
But the decision that probably saved more lives than any other was made on the morning of Aug. 28, inside a National Weather Service office in Slidell, La. It was made by meteorologists who went to a computer and released a document containing apocalyptic language.
Across the United States, Americans read that warning and realized what was coming.
Ten days later, those words read almost as a prophecy. That "inland hurricane warning" was released from Slidell at 10 a.m. that day, according to Walter Zaleski, the Texas-based southern region warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service.
Issued the day before Katrina made landfall, the warning described much of what would happen to New Orleans. Indeed, while some officials in Washington, D.C., have called for privatizing at least part of the National Weather Service, that agency was almost alone within the federal government in quickly comprehending what this hurricane could do.
It warned of "water shortages (that) will make human suffering incredible by modern standards." It warned that "much of the area will be uninhabitable." It warned of "roof and wall fail-
ure" for at least half of the "well-constructed homes" in the region.
In essence, it predicted that New Orleans would be destroyed.
"It's some of the strongest language we've ever used," Zaleski said. Hundreds of thousands of people who read the warnings and had the resources to flee got out of town.
The astounding thing is this: Despite the chillingly accurate nature of the warning, it was not specifically written for the coming of Katrina. The wording, Zaleski said, was part of a catastrophic hurricane "template" created years ago by the weather service. It was filed away in a computer, awaiting the day when a Category 5 hurricane threatened a heavily populated region.
The meteorologists near New Orleans, Zaleski said, pulled it up and did their jobs.
"There is no doubt," he said, "that our warnings from our weather service office in Slidell contributed to saving many thousands of lives."
The language had to be extreme, he said. He recalled how a massive low-pressure system battered Florida in 1993. The weather service issued storm warnings, but they did not trigger much concern in many residents. Twenty-six people died in the storm.
In what Zaleski described as an internal "post-mortem," the weather service realized that residents accustomed to threats of full-fledged hurricanes did not react or respond with high alarm.
"In 1993, some people said, 'It didn't sound (as bad as it turned out to be),' " Zaleski said.
Weather service officials remembered, he said. They prepared a series of what Zaleski calls general "impact statements" that used language meant to create certain reactions.
"We knew that people respond to key words," he said. "The weather service, working with social scientists, learned that warnings would be effective with key words and impacts, not only in hurricane warnings but in warnings across the board, (including) blizzards or tornadoes."
On Aug. 28, the meteorologists in Slidell understood what they were facing, Zaleski said. They did not want to leave any chance that residents of New Orleans would follow basic human nature and try to minimize the threat.
Those meteorologists released a warning that spoke of "human suffering" and an "uninhabitable" region. It might seem as if it were written specifically for New Orleans, but a careful reading 10 days later underlines Zaleski's point: The same warning would have worked if a Category 5 hurricane had approached Long Island or Miami or any populated region.
As for identifying the weather service officials who issued the warning, Zaleski said the staff at the office in Slidell declined Tuesday to speak about it publicly. "They're weary, their own homes have been destroyed and they're trying to do their work at the same time," he said.
But if the warnings helped to save countless lives, aren't they heroes?
"Anyone who kept working during that time," Zaleski said, "was a hero."
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Running Out of Storm Names?
September 7, 2005, 11:55 am
Today, we have Tropical Storm Ophelia. It is the earliest on record for the 15th named storm of the season. Which brings up the obvious question: Will we run out of names?
As of today, we have six more names ending with the "w" storm, Wilma. Some have wondered if we would start over or skip over and start using the 2006 names.
Neither.
Instead, we would shift to the Greek alphabet. Some of the first names on that would be Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Epsilon.
Let's hope and pray that we don't even get to Alpha (or even to Wilma)
By the way, you will never hear of Hurricane Katrina again. When a hurricane is major, major in strength, the names are retired forever just like a super sports star occasionally has his jersey number retired.
Just a few examples of that: there will be no more Hugo, Camille, Opal, Andrew, Katrina, to name a few.
(Thanks to Shayne Hardesty for suggesting this story.)
As of today, we have six more names ending with the "w" storm, Wilma. Some have wondered if we would start over or skip over and start using the 2006 names.
Neither.
Instead, we would shift to the Greek alphabet. Some of the first names on that would be Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Epsilon.
Let's hope and pray that we don't even get to Alpha (or even to Wilma)
By the way, you will never hear of Hurricane Katrina again. When a hurricane is major, major in strength, the names are retired forever just like a super sports star occasionally has his jersey number retired.
Just a few examples of that: there will be no more Hugo, Camille, Opal, Andrew, Katrina, to name a few.
(Thanks to Shayne Hardesty for suggesting this story.)
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
In The Cool, Cool of The Morning
September 7, 2005, 11:26 am
Seems like 90% of the weather news has been unpleasant lately. Shall we pause for a moment for a bit of pleasant news? We list these lows this morning:
ALABAMA
55 in Desoto State Park (Little River Canyon)
57 at Hamilton, Heflin, Valley Head, Grove Oak
58 in Decatur, Pinson, Collinsville
59 in Fayette, Muscle Shoals, Black Creek (NE Etowah County)
60 in Huntsville, Jasper, Wedowee
61 in Fort Payne, Alexander City, Clanton
62 in Livingston, Centreville
63 in Tuscaloosa and atop Mt. Cheaha
64 in Anniston and Birmingham
ELSEWHERE
28 in Stanley, Idaho and Barrow, Alaska
41 atop Mt. Leconte in the Great Smoky Mountains
43 on Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina
47 at Beech Mountain and Grandfather Mountain, North Carolina
49 at Crossville, Tennessee (Cumberland Plateau)
14 at Alert, Canada (the northern-most weather station in North America)
103 below zero at Vostok, Antarctia (they expect -106 Friday night with 11 mph winds
* Needle sharp visibility this morning. I believe I could have seen Mt. Cheaha if I could have climbed a 500-foot tree.
* Vic Bell, 3340 WeatherWatcher for Black Creek reports lows in the 50s six out of seven morning so far this month,
ALABAMA
55 in Desoto State Park (Little River Canyon)
57 at Hamilton, Heflin, Valley Head, Grove Oak
58 in Decatur, Pinson, Collinsville
59 in Fayette, Muscle Shoals, Black Creek (NE Etowah County)
60 in Huntsville, Jasper, Wedowee
61 in Fort Payne, Alexander City, Clanton
62 in Livingston, Centreville
63 in Tuscaloosa and atop Mt. Cheaha
64 in Anniston and Birmingham
ELSEWHERE
28 in Stanley, Idaho and Barrow, Alaska
41 atop Mt. Leconte in the Great Smoky Mountains
43 on Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina
47 at Beech Mountain and Grandfather Mountain, North Carolina
49 at Crossville, Tennessee (Cumberland Plateau)
14 at Alert, Canada (the northern-most weather station in North America)
103 below zero at Vostok, Antarctia (they expect -106 Friday night with 11 mph winds
* Needle sharp visibility this morning. I believe I could have seen Mt. Cheaha if I could have climbed a 500-foot tree.
* Vic Bell, 3340 WeatherWatcher for Black Creek reports lows in the 50s six out of seven morning so far this month,
Hello Ophelia
September 7, 2005, 5:53 am
The Wednesday morning map discussion is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
Quite a trio in the Atlantic: Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. Still watching the wave in the western Gulf; that might bring some significant rain to the Texas coastal plain in coming days. Nate will be passing close to Bermuda, but all of our attention here will be on Ophelia.
Bottom line here is this system will be in no hurry to go anywhere for the rest of the week with very weak steering currents.
NHC has changed their track; now keeping Ophelia offshore through the coming weekend with a loop off the Florida coast. A number of other models go along with the loop idea, including the GFS. The GFS loops Ophelia offshore, takes it inland somewhere between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach around one week from today, then moving into the Gulf with a landfall near Pensacola on Friday September 16, with the system then moving northward through Alabama. I am not convinced Ophelia will hang around THAT long, but I guess it is possible.
The GFDL and the European models both want to take Ophelia across the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf, and toward New Orleans with no looping action.
A few models take the system out to sea with no landfall.
I still think Ophelia will have a hard time getting north of Jacksonville in coming days, and I think the GFS idea is not far from the truth, I just am not sure it will take that long for the system to get into the Gulf and onto the Gulf coast (10 days). Maybe closer to 6 to 7 days.
IF Ophelia does wind up in the Gulf of Mexico, there is not as much latent heat energy available thanks to Katrina. But, it still could be a significant hurricane.
AROUND HERE: Feels very very nice this morning. Observations as I type this show 59 at Decatur, and 65 at Birmingham. Dry weather continues through Saturday; beyond that it all depends on what Ophelia does.
TELETHON: A reminder we will be raising money for the survivors of Katrina on ABC 33/40 Thursday from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. from the BJCC. Plan on joining us for this two hour special...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
Quite a trio in the Atlantic: Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. Still watching the wave in the western Gulf; that might bring some significant rain to the Texas coastal plain in coming days. Nate will be passing close to Bermuda, but all of our attention here will be on Ophelia.
Bottom line here is this system will be in no hurry to go anywhere for the rest of the week with very weak steering currents.
NHC has changed their track; now keeping Ophelia offshore through the coming weekend with a loop off the Florida coast. A number of other models go along with the loop idea, including the GFS. The GFS loops Ophelia offshore, takes it inland somewhere between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach around one week from today, then moving into the Gulf with a landfall near Pensacola on Friday September 16, with the system then moving northward through Alabama. I am not convinced Ophelia will hang around THAT long, but I guess it is possible.
The GFDL and the European models both want to take Ophelia across the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf, and toward New Orleans with no looping action.
A few models take the system out to sea with no landfall.
I still think Ophelia will have a hard time getting north of Jacksonville in coming days, and I think the GFS idea is not far from the truth, I just am not sure it will take that long for the system to get into the Gulf and onto the Gulf coast (10 days). Maybe closer to 6 to 7 days.
IF Ophelia does wind up in the Gulf of Mexico, there is not as much latent heat energy available thanks to Katrina. But, it still could be a significant hurricane.
AROUND HERE: Feels very very nice this morning. Observations as I type this show 59 at Decatur, and 65 at Birmingham. Dry weather continues through Saturday; beyond that it all depends on what Ophelia does.
TELETHON: A reminder we will be raising money for the survivors of Katrina on ABC 33/40 Thursday from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. from the BJCC. Plan on joining us for this two hour special...
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