Note from our friend Kevin Selle in Dallas:

*OVERPASSES AT MAJOR FREEWAYS PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DALLAS ARE GRINDING TO A HALT..CARS AND TRUCK ARE ON THE INTERCHANGES AND UNABLE TO MOVE
1TV IS OVER ONE AT I-35 AND I-20 IN SOUTH DALLAS COUNTY WHERE A TRUCK FIRE HAS COMPLICATED THE MOVEMENT OF TRAFFIC. SANDING CREWS ARE HAVING A PROBLEM SPREADING THEIR LOADS BECAUSE OF STALLED TRAFFIC.

*Between 4 AM and 2 PM, the Fort Worth Police Department has responded to the following (tentative) accident totals:

Minor Accidents 121

Major Accidents 59 (we have not determined how many, if any victims transported to hospitals and that info won't be available today)

Fatalities -0-

There has been 1 FWPD marked police vehicle that sustained some minor damage. No injuries have been reported to any officers as of this release (either accident or falls,)

Precipitation out in Dallas/Fort Worth is pretty light, but roads are a mess!

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

As I write this, we are watching a wintry mess unfolding to the west. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area a mix of freezing rain and snow is falling with temperatures in the 20s. In the Texas panhandle, Amarillo is down to 13 degrees. Winter storm warnings and other advisories cover most of the I-35 corridor from Austin to Wichita.

I must admit all of that makes me nervous as we sit on a forecast that highlights a cold rain for Alabama tomorrow. More problematic is the wedge of cold air to the northeast... we will have to keep an eye on that. The CAD event (cold air damming) will set the stage for some nasty ice over the Carolinas; especially north and west of I-85. Freezing rain could develop over parts of north Georgia tomorrow morning as well. We all know models don't handle wedge events well. In fact, they are usually horrible.

I also note the dewpoints with interest; Atlanta has a dewpoint now of only 17, while Birmingham's dewpoint is 21. There is no doubt evaporational cooling will come into play. That is yet another reason we think the MOS products are way too warm; we will probably hover in the 35 to 39 degree range all day tomorrow. We will simply stick with the cold rain scenario... but we will be watching the wedge and the cooling due to evaporation late tonight and tomorrow morning. The NWS in Huntsville is a little concerned over a little freezing rain early tomorrow over Jackson and DeKalb counties of northeast Alabama. I would throw Cherokee county in there as well.

Once again, this whole setup makes me nervous.

The WRF QPF for us is around one inch; the NAM suggests one-half to one inch, while the GFS is even drier. You have to figure most spots will see around 1/2 inch here.

Friday should be a pretty cold day in the wake of the storm; we might have a hard time reaching the low 40s. The sky should clear.

THE WEEKEND: A disturbance will roll through the flow Saturday, but no moisture means no precipitation. I do think we go down into the low 20s Saturday morning, with teens for the colder spots (much like the last couple of mornings). And, it now looks like a fresh surge of chilly air moves in here Sunday, knocking temperatures down once again.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z models seems to be in a little better agreement, and while we will continue to mention at least a chance of rain on Tuesday, it might not be a big event. An impulse moving through will mainly serve to sharpen the upper trough and bring yet another surge of cold air in here for the middle of next week. For now it looks like rain amounts Monday night and Tuesday will be very light and spotty.

THE LONG RANGE: Cold continues to be the word. And, the GFS paints a setup for winter weather problems in the December 17-20 time frame with a southwest flow aloft over a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Will we have an ice threat at that point? Maybe. You can't ignore the pattern and the amount of cold air around. If you don't think there is cold air around, scroll down and read J.B.'s post below this one. This will be one of the coldest Decembers on record for many U.S. cities.

I just don't know if we can make it through the rest of December without at least one decent threat of ice or snow.

We are going to get our pal Kevin Selle from Texas Cable News network on Dallas on our internal IM (instant message) conference this afternoon and get some reports from the frozen tundra of north Texas. Kevin worked with me at WBRC-TV here for several years in the early 1990s, and was here during the Blizzard of 93. Everyone remembers Kevin's hat during snow storms.

I will have the next map discussion video online by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

COLD AIR ROUNDUP
And, I have good news and it is not because I switched to another automobile insurance and saved big bucks.

Surely, surely, our recent cold has totally wiped out the mosquitoes. I am not positive I even saw one during the summer.

Overall, we may have had the heaviest frost of the season this morning. Vic Bell, 3340 Weather Watcher for Black Creek (NE Etowah County) described it well as "a frost that looked like snow"

ALABAMA LOWS (Updated at 12:20 to post final lows for Birmingham and Huntsville)
18 at Black Creek (17.8 to be exact)
19 in Fort Payne and Hartselle
20 in Desoto State Park (at Little River Canyon)
21 in Florence and at Gadsden Airport
22 in Pinson, Albertville, Alabaster, Jasper
23 in Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Cullman, Meridianville, Munford, Vinemont, Leeds, Moulton, Talladega
24 in Parrish, Athens, Huntsville
25 at Birmingham Airport
26 in Anniston, Tuscaloosa, Helena, Reform, Wadley
27 in Birmingham, Selma, Madison, Guntersville, Wedowee
29 at Mentone, Northport
31 in Eutaw and Troy
32 atop Mt. Cheaha
33 at Montgomery

Because of a temperature inversion, it was 10 degrees colder at Fort Payne Airport (19) than it was not far away at Mentone (29) atop Lookout Mountain.

In East Alabama, Anniston Airport, with 26 was 6 degrees colder than atop Mt. Cheaha, Alabama's highest elevation where it was 32.

The above lows are as of 6 am. It is possible that some locations chilled another degree or so between 6 am and 7 am.

NATIONAL (LOWER 48 STATES)
The NWS confirms a bitter 45 below zero at the west entrance of Yellowstone Park. (West Yellowstone, Montana) It broke the previous December 7 low of -39 in 1927. Here is a roundup:

45 below zero in Yellowstone Park (West Entrance)
26 below in Bozeman and Wolf Point, Montana
29 below in Big Piney, Wyoming
23 below in Casper
26 below in Pinedale, Wyoming
31 below in Crandall Creek, Wyoming
35 below in Farson, Wyoming (the low for the state)
30 below zero at Tensleep, Wyoming (what a name
27 below in Jackon, Wyoming (gateway to the Tetons)
25 below at Laramie, Wyoming (home of the University of Wyoming where Pat Dye once coached)
19 below in Cheyenne
24 below in Saratoga, Wyoming
20 below in Meeker, Colorado
7 below in Denver

ALASKA
29 below in Notak
29 below in Beaver
25 below at Salmon Trout
20 below in Deadhorse

The bitter cold that was holding on over Eastern Alaska has moved out and headed south. It is interesting to note that Beaver, Alaska, where it was a bitter 53 below a few days ago, had a low this morning of "only" 29 below.

Chandalar Lake had a low yesterday morning of 50 below buy was an even zero there in the pre-dawn hours today.

Interesting that Chandalar Lake reported 74 below zero at mid-day yesterday. Howsomever, we are 99.9% certain that was an error with the automated weather observation station. Otherwise, that would have been within 6 degrees of the all time low in North America.

Life goes on...

Vic Bell, the ABC 33/40 Weather watcher at Black Creek, in NE Etowah County reports a low of 17.8 this morning with a frost that looks like snow.

Just took a half-mile walk around the walking track with Little Miss Molly and we also have our heaviest frost of the season here in NE Trussville.

Will post a comprehensive list of lows a little later including some interesting reports from the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. Some of the worst bitter cold has vacated Eastern Alaska and NW Canada and is pushing south.

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The amount of cold air on the map this morning is downright amazing for early December. J.B. Elliott has provided this info:

At 5:00 am CST and only using stations that report hourly from the Lower 48:
*Lowest temperature -28 at Jordan, Montana
*80% of land area freezing or lower
*17% of land area zero or lower
*Highest SFC pressure 1043 MB at Jordan, Montana

Somehow we still think we will escape winter weather problems here tomorrow with only a cold rain across Alabama. Still an outside shot of flurries over the northeast corner of the state tomorrow night, but most spots will not see snow flakes. But, the storm will create some big problems elsewere. A few notes:

*DALLAS: I used to work at KDFW-TV, Channel 4, in Dallas as the chief meteorologist in the mid 80s, and I still watch the weather closely out there. Winter storm warning continues for today. D/FW Airport is at 41 as I write this, but they should drop into the 20s later today with freezing rain changing to snow. Amounts should be fairly light, but enough to make for a very messy drive home this afternoon in the metroplex. Up in the panhandle, Amarillo has dropped to 7 degrees with light snow.

*MEMPHIS/NASHVILLE: Beginning to look like the best chance of snow/ice problems will be north of these Tennessee cities tomorrow. Maybe a little bridge icing, but nothing too serious. A wintry mix will be more likely over north Arkansas, and far north Tennessee and Kentucky.

*CAROLINAS: A messy ice event will unfold for many areas north and west of I-85, where freezing rain is likely. Classic wedge setup here where the cold air is very shallow. Some ice might be found down into northeast Georgia as well in the wedge.

OUR WEEKEND: I will say up front the forecast is difficult this weekend and through all of next week, with great potential for busts along the way. You can't ignore the cold air over the U.S.... any slight nudge of that will make it much, much colder than MOS suggests here. Having said that...

An upper feature swings through, north of Alabama, on Saturday. The air will be too dry for any precipitation. The GFS suggests it will nudge some colder air in here Sunday; I probably need to lower temperatures for Sunday. The weekend still looks dry.

NEXT WEEK: Very complex. Models not playing well together. The GFS (06Z run) brings a little rain in here on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday/Wednesday night. It shows that second impulse phasing up with another one to the north, and bringing in a blast of cold air back in here Thursday and Friday of next week. The 540 line drops to the Gulf coast Friday December 16. I think there is no doubt we turn much colder at some point over the latter half of next week, but the details are tough to call. Nothing that really grabs our attention to make snow fans happy, but there is some hint of flurries with the shot of cold air at the end of the week. Will be anxious to see the 12Z runs.

LONG RANGE: Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of the month, generally speaking. The NAO and the AO are generally negative across the board. And, once again, you simpy cannot ignore temperatures right now over North America.

EPSILON: Are you kidding me? This thing is still a hurricane in the Atlantic about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores, moving southwest. This thing might be around at Christmas if this keeps up.

I will have the afternoon video on the server by 3:30 today...