More on my struggle against the steak and the aftermath next time . . .

Drew McCombs
abc3340wx2@gmail.com

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

We have our SKYCAM video streaming live if you want to have a birds-eye view of the big fire in downtown Birmingham. Just go to our main weather page and click on the live stream icon (on the upper right):

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/

See the still images here:

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamscompass.html

TROPICAL ISSUES? A wide variety of models do hint at a tropical low forming just west of the Yucatan peninsula over the weekend. But, tracks vary far and wide. The GFS takes the system to near Pensacola (as a weak tropical system) by the middle of next week. The Canadian is an outlier to the east (and is much faster than all other models); it takes a tropical low to near Appalachicola Monday morning. The Florida State MM5 seems to be a tad west of the GFS, with a path generally toward Mobile, and the European (ECMWF) takes the system westward into the Mexican coast, well south of Brownsville, Texas. Who do you believe?

Bottom line is this... if you have a beach trip planned for next week, don't worry about this. The ECMWF could be correct; this thing might drift into Mexico as a weak low with no big problems. And, another positive; if the GFS is correct we might have a nice beneficial rain event here in Alabama around Thursday of next week, as the tropical moisture merges with an incoming cold front. We really could use something like that.

Stay tuned... we will have a much better idea of the situation by tomorrow.

AROUND HERE: Hot and dry weather is the story through most of the weekend. Highs in the 90 to 95 degree range; lots of sun; and hardly any showers. A few storms might show up Sunday afternoon, especially north of Birmingham, but even up there they should be isolated.

NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on the tropical situation... the latest GFS run (12Z) does show a sharp upper trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of next week; and it drives a surface cold front through here late Thursday and Thursday night. Drier air follows by Friday June 16. But, this might be a little too aggressive; fronts have a hard time blowing through here in mid-June. Possible, but I am not sold on the idea just yet.

Will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

We have put our SKYCAM on the live stream... click on the live stream button on our main weather page to watch:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/

You can see the major fire in downtown Birmingham on our Birmingham SKYCAM

http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamscompass.html

No injuries reported; this is some type of shoe factory just east of I-65...

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

TROPICAL TROUBLE NEXT WEEK? Guess we need to go ahead and raise the flag up the pole here. If you have been reading the blog this week, you know the Canadian GEM model has been forecasting tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend for a few days. Now, the American and European models are jumping on the bandwagon, but with different ideas about timing and location of a potential system.

The GFS and the NAM are in good agreement about a tropical system forming over the Bay of Campeche, just northwest of the Yucatan peninsula, late in the weekend. The GFS then moves the system to the Louisiana coast by Wednesday of next week. The ECMWF, while not as robust as the GFS, does show a surface low in the western Gulf next week.

Remember, early season systems rarely become dangerous hurricanes; the main issue is heavy rain and flooding in most cases. And, sometimes early season tropical systems can be a good thing, bringing rain to areas that really need it.

The GFS brings the moisture plume from the tropical system into Alabama by Thursday and Friday of next week with an opportunity for some beneficial rain, if all of this happens to be the correct solution. We are very early in the game here, so don't hang your hat on any specific solution. But, this kind of thing is certainly possible.

SHORT TERM: How about those small showers over West Alabama this morning! Those things moved southward during the pre-dawn hours, and despite the relatively dry air they somehow survived. Those are fading fast, and most places will stay dry through Saturday. Afternoons will be heating up; we will be close to 90 today, with low 90s likely tomorrow and Saturday.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: We will bring in a few isolated afternoon showers or storms on these days with a weak surface front to the north. The best chance of an afternoon storm will mostly likely be north of Birmingham.

JUNE 14-16: The weather during the latter half of next week depends on what happens with any tropical system to the southwest of here. Lets keep our fingers crossed we can see some widespread rain, but no promise.

TONIGHT: The National Geographic Channel will run a program tonight at 7:00 called "Anatomy of a Tornado", which will feature the Goshen/Piedmont tornado tragedy on March 27, 1994. Brian Peters of our staff should be on the show, plus other friends that were in the Goshen United Methodist Church when an F4 tornado destroyed the building during the morning worship service that Palm Sunday morning.

Here is the program information from the NGC web site:

"How lethal can a 2x4 be when picked up by 250-mph winds? What happens to a structure when it is struck by a tornado? Anatomy of a Tornado takes a forensic look at the composition and makeup of tornadoes. Using the world's largest and most sophisticated tornado simulator at Iowa State University and the Texas Tech Debris Impact Center, NGC analyzes the devastating tornado 1994 outbreak that spawned 18 twisters in 4 states."

You might want to TIVO or record that show... I will be doing that (I won't be able to watch it in real time).

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!