As I write this evening post, I have stopped at the Hampton Inn in Greenville to get the latest data via wi-fi high speed internet. There has been a steady stream of evacuees pulling off the interstate and coming in to inquire about rooms. There are no rooms at the Inn. In fact, the General Manager says they started getting hurricane reservations on Tuesday. Most of the ABC 3340 crew that will be at the coast has reservations with me tonight at the Hampton Inn Foley. I have already staked out places to stay from New Orleans to Panama City in anticipation of the landfall of Dennis.

That wide range of accommodations tells you about the confidence we have in our ability to forecast the exact landfall of a hurricane, even at 72 hours. The afternoon run of the NAM (the old ETA) carries the center of the hurricane to the Pensacola/Navarre Beach area about mid-afternoon on Sunday, then into Southwest Alabama during the overnight hours and into northern Mississippi by midday Monday.

The afternoon run of the GFS, which has seemed to have a good handle on this storm, carries the hurricane center to near Destin during the late afternoon hours on Sunday. The afternoon run of the GFDL model targeted the Destin area for landfall. In fact, all of the NHC dynamic models all were clustered on a landfall for the center of Dennis near Destin. Is that a trend? We really won’t know until even Sunday morning. The entire coastline has to be vigilant.

Preparations will be moving full speed by morning all along the Gulf Coast. But what preparations should be taken in Central Alabama? Just remember Ivan’s effects last September here, and Dennis could be worse. First, you will want to prepare for extended power outages. Strong tropical storm force winds with gusts to above hurricane force will be common between 9 p.m. Sunday night and 2 p.m. Monday afternoon. This will bring down numerous trees again. Prepare by gathering non-perishable food items that do not require cooking. All of our friends in mobile homes should leave for sturdy structures by 6 p.m. Sunday. We don't want anyone in manufactured housing during the strong winds. Many fatalities occur from trees falling on mobile homes. Don’t forget about pets. They need to be sheltered from the severe weather also. Finally, refrain from driving after 9 p.m. Sunday. Falling trees and torrential rains will make driving hazardous during the passage of the storm.

.....NHC (National Hurricane center) believes that Dennis will grow stronger again after a visit to Cuba and within 24 hours have sustained winds 125 mph and gusts to 155 mph. At that time over the SE Gulf.

.....Eye now 115 south Key West

.....Easy to track the guy on Key West radar. Looks as if eye is regaining composure

.....Bill Murray reports most gas stations running low on gasoline at Foley in Baldwin County.

.....Gas also hard to come by as far east as Destin.

Some late spot reports:

Destin...clear, wind calm
Panama City...partly cloudy, wind calm
Key West...cloudy, wind east 43, gusts 51 mph
Flamingo...wind SE 47, gusts 58 mph
Sombero Key...wind SE 59, gusts 67 mph
Miami Beach...wind SE 40, gusts 52 mph
Havana, Cuba...mostly cloudy, wind north 30 mph
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba...wind has diminished to only 9 mph

Quick notes from the 9:00 NHC conference call.. all of this will be "official" on the 10:00 pm advisory.

Winds down to 95 knots
Pressure up to 962 mb
Latest position 23.0 N 82.1 W
Moving 310 degrees (NW) at 12 knots
Little change in forecast movement and track
Model consensus is still around Mobile to Pensacola
Considerable degradation over Cuba; even though satellite presentation showed "significant degradation," the inner core is still tight, and thus should lead to a quick reintensification once back over water.


Models... GFDL and GFS are to the right of the NHC track; the UKMET is to the left

Bottom line is no real change to previous thinking....

MONTGOMERY - Governor Bob Riley today ordered the Alabama Departments of Transportation and Public Safety to implement a daytime lane reversal on Interstate 65 on Saturday, July 9. Governor Riley made the decision based on the high volume of northbound traffic on I-65 as people evacuate the coastal areas.

"Our departments are trained and fully capable of handling the I-65 lane reversal in order to safely and efficiently evacuate people from Alabama's coastal areas," Governor Riley said. "I continue to encourage people to leave the area and get out of harm's way."

The decision to reverse lane I-65 during daylight hours only is based on the safety concerns for both motorists and state employees. Transportation and law enforcement personnel will close I-65 to southbound traffic around 6:00 a.m. Saturday at the Fairview Avenue exit in Montgomery, and will begin clearing southbound traffic at exits toward the traffic crossover point in Baldwin County. The initial traffic crossover point for northbound traffic to enter the southbound lanes is located at I-65 just south of State Road 225 in Baldwin County.

At 8:00 a.m. or as soon as personnel determine there is no remaining traffic in the southbound lanes, the southbound lanes will be opened to northbound traffic. Transportation and law enforcement personnel will be at every exit from the initial crossover to Montgomery and variable message boards and detour signs will be deployed to provide additional information. Once in Montgomery, measures are in place to return traffic to the proper lanes.

The crossover point in Baldwin County will be closed at 5 p.m. to re-establish normal traffic flow and to move DOT and DPS personnel out of the path of approaching heavy winds and rain. There will not be any lane reversal after Saturday.

Transportation Director Joe McInnes urges motorists to drive with caution and patience as hundreds of transportation and public safety officials take extraordinary measures to help evacuate the Gulf Coast.

Despite having four northbound lanes, motorists should expect traffic to move slower than normal on I-65. Motorists should expect congestion along feeder and detour routes because of I-65 southbound traffic, and should allow extra time to reach destinations. Also, I-65 southbound will be closed to traffic at the I-85 interchange. Rest areas will remain open as long as weather permits.

The plan for reversing I-65 traffic consists of 110 steps and requires 200 Department of Transportation employees, 60 to 80 state troopers and additional personnel from state and local emergency management and local law enforcement agencies. Transportation and law enforcement personnel will be positioned at 30 checkpoints and exits along the four lanes of I-65.

The Department of Transportation has established a toll-free information line that will provide around-the-clock information on Saturday's lane reversal and road closures. The toll-free number is 1-888-588-2848, or (334) 353-6650 from the Montgomery area. Road closure information is also available at www.dot.state.al.us.

The 7:00 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center places the center of Dennis near latitude 22.7N, longitude 81.4W or about 65 miles ESE of Havana, Cuba, which is about 130 miles south of Key West, Florida.

MOVEMENT: He was moving NW at 15. The center should emerge off the north-central coast of Cuba this evening.

WIINDS: Because of land friction in Cuba, highest sustained winds have decreased to about 125 mph. This means that Dennis is a Category 3. He may weaken even more over Cuba, but he will remain a major hurricane as he emerges over the straits of Florida and SE Gulf of Mexico tonight. Winds are increasing in the Florida Keys. Som Brero Key, Florida recorded sustained winds of 48 mph with gusts to 60.

PRESSURE: Minimum pressure is 28.11 inches or 952 MB. That is up from earlier.

SUGGESTIONS FOR THE ALABAMA-NW FLORIDA COAST
The NWS, Mobile, continues a Flash Flood Watch through Sunday night for SW Alabama, extreme SE Mississippi and the west part of the Florida Panhandle.

Shelters are being opened, in some areas, tonight. Mandatory evacuations are possible on Saturday.

High tides will occur mear noon on Sunday. This, combined with the storm surge from Dennis, could result in a surge of 10 to 14 feet in and where Dennis makes landfall. This will result in major destruction along coastal areas similar to what Ivan produced.

Near the landfall area and east of it, winds of 40 mph or greater will occur by early Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds will affect the area around midday Sunday and persist Sunday afternoon and evening. Dennis is expected to be at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds around 120 mph. Major structural damage is likely.

Dangerous rip currents are likely Saturday and Sunday because of increasing surf and winds. People should not swim, surf or do recreational boating until Dennis gets out of there.

The threat of tornadoes will be increased as Dennis approaches the coast.

We checked weather observations from Cuba at 6:00 p.m. Most of the reports are missing. There has to be massive power failures over a large part of Central Cuba. One of the Cuban weather stations reported a gust of 149 mph early this afternoon.

Our EMA sources tell us that all I-65 lanes will be made northbound beginning at 6:00 am. tomorrow from Mobile to Montgomery... No southbound travel will be allowed after 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This post will be in two sections; first a discussion on how we think the system will behave during the next three days, and the second part will be a specific call to action for people in north-central Alabama. This applies to EVERYONE in the ABC 33/40 viewing area... we are getting hundreds of requests for us to break down weather conditions for a certain county; this is a very large storm that will impact all of us.

DISCUSSION

NHC track remains unchanged; Dennis coming into the Perdido Key area between Orange Beach and Pensacola Sunday afternoon. I think landfall will come between noon and 3:00 p.m. Sunday. Should be a major hurricane at the time of landfall; a strong three or perhaps even a category four. The GFDL has winds at 112 knots, or about 130 mph, at landfall. Much like Ivan, Opal, and Frederic.

Most models are in pretty good agreement with the NHC track, which takes Dennis up through extreme west Alabama on Monday morning. The GFDL wants to take it to near Oxford, MS; we think that might be too far to the west. The FSU MM5 is more to the east, with a track near Birmingham. Watch the video for more technical discussion on the system.

IMPACT ON NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA

*The greatest chance of damaging wind and flooding should come from 9:00 p.m. Sunday through 2:00 p.m. Monday.

*Sustained winds of 50 to 70 mph are likely, with higher gusts, over hurricane force, possible. The highest wind should be west of I-65, but extensive tree damage is likely statewide. The ground is pretty soft due to the rain from tropical storm Cindy earlier this week. We should have sustained winds of over 30 mph for at least 24 hours.

*Rain amounts of 5 to 10 inches are likely, which will create a significant flood threat.

*Isolated tornadoes in spiral bands are also a threat. The greatest tornado threat will be east of I-65, but once again everyone will have the risk of a brief small tornado in a spiral band.

CALL TO ACTION

*You need to be prepared for long power outages, on the order of several days. Some people could be without power for over one week. Think about batteries, non perishable food, bottled water, board games for kids, flashlights, etc.

*We advise all people living in mobile homes to go to a more substantial structure by 6:00 p.m. Sunday. All of the deaths during hurricane Opal in 1995 were due to trees falling on mobile homes.

*We do NOT advise any travel by auto between 9:00 p.m. Sunday and 2:00 p.m. Monday.

*Be sure pets are sheltered properly.

*Tie down any loose object that can blow away. Contractors need to secure construction sites.


TV COVERAGE

*We will air a 30 minute special on ABC 33/40 tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. on Dennis; with reports live from the coast. We will also have folks from Alabama Power and various local government agencies on with us, much like the special we did before Ivan arrived.

*We will have special long form coverage on our digital signals, 5.2 and 9.2, Saturday night from 6:00 until 10:00 if you have a digital TV receiver. This will also be carried on Charter Cable channel 99 in the Birmingham metro area.

*We begin coverage on our 5.2, 9.2, and cable channel 99 Sunday morning at 4:00 a.m., and on ABC 33/40 at 7:00 a.m. The coverage will continue with no interruption until sometime Monday evening.

*Brian Peters will be blogging from the coast; he arrives tomorrow.

Stay with this blog and ABC 33/40 for the latest...

Dennis is very powerful. The National Hurricane Center filed this report:

The Cuban Weather Service and Civil Defense, via ham radio operators, indicate a wind gust of 149 mph at Cienfuegos, Cuba around 12:30 this afternoon (CDT)

More than 85 percent of the powerlines are down and extensive damage has occurred to the communications infrastructure.

Although structural damage was not mentionrd, you can bet your shoes and hats that it is major.

Three cheers for the ham radio operators! What would we do without them at times like this? In my 32 years in the Birmingham NWS, they were simply a godsend and we could never thank them enough.

More extensive update after 4 this afternoon. We will be posting more and more information as the event unfolds. In order that we do not have to repeat so much material with each post, please scan down. You can do that quickly and find a lot more posts that still have current and useful information.

At 1 pm, CDT, powerful Hurricane Dennis was located on the south coast of Cuba about 125 miles southeast of Havana or about or about 190 miles SSE of Key West, Florida.

He is still a strong Category 4 although land friction with Cuba has decreased his highest sustained winds to 145 mph.

That is still a very powerful hurricane and the central pressure is an extremely low 27.79 inches or 941 millibars.

The track forecast is still the same. Please scan down to see earlier posts with all the information about how Alabama will be affected, including a post this morning from James Spann about what you should do to prepare for Dennis.

Doing a live Q and A call-in program on WAGG, 610 AM.

A few late morning notes and some spot reports:

1. From Destin, a report of mandantory evacuation for military personnel.

2. People in Destin limited to $25 in gasoline purchases at a time. Some stations already out of gasoline.

3. Mandatory evacuation starts at 6 am Saturday for Baldwin County's Pleasure Island. (Alabama)

The weather is completely normal along the Alabama-NW Florida Coast today. Here are some 11 am spot reports from that area and also down the Florida West Coast:

Mobile...85 degrees, sunny, wind calm
Panama City...mostly sunny, wind north 10
Destin...mostly sunny, wind south 6
Valparaiso...mostly sunny, wind SE 7
Sarasota...partly sunny, wind east 12
Fort Meyers...partly sunny, wind SE 12
Key West...light rain, wind NE 16