This is a story about hurricanes, tropical storms, tornadoes, snowstorms, dogs and cats. It sure was disturbing in the early days of the evacuation of New Orleans to see elderly people forced to abandon their pets as they were loaded into boats and whisked away. I was relieved to later see that the rules were relaxed a bit and people could carry their dog or cat with them. That was a solemn sight to see dogs trapped by high water on porches and obviously starving to death.

In the last day or so, there has been a concentrated effort to rescue the dogs that were left behind and try to reunite them with their owners. Saw a couple of the reunions caught by TV cameras and I couldn’t tell who was happier—the dog or the humans.

I don’t know what I would do if I had to leave my little puppy behind knowing almost for certain that she would drown or starve to death. I don’t think I could do it. I believe we would just take our chances and stick it out.

That story unfolds time and time again, not only with hurricanes, but with tornadoes, snowstorms, ice storms and flash floods. On some of our coldest winter nights, I have seen dogs out wandering around and I don’t see how in the world they could find a warm spot. I do not understand people who will have pets and not protect them from adverse outside weather. Could never, ever do that.

-J. B. Elliott

She was upgraded to hurricane status in the 4 o'clock advisory (CDT) from the National Hurricane Center. She becomes the seventh hurricane of the season.

But she is not moving.

The center was still about 70 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral. That is near latitude 28.6N, longitude 79.5W if want to plot her on your hurricane tracking chart. Sustained winds 75 mph with higher gusts.

She may start a slow NE movement in the next 24 hours. She may also grow stronger.

So, we now have three hurricanes in progress in the Atlantic. Don't think that is a record. I believe once in the past that we had four hurricanes at one time.

First thing you will notice is no video. I am filling in for James Spann this afternoon to help relieve his time crunch. He has to be down at the BJCC early for tonight's special two-hour telethon on ABC 33/40 starting at 6 o'clock. It is to raise money for hurricane relief. Be sure and watch.

I have no way to load video, so this will be a general discussion. We will do it by subject mattter:

PRECIPITATION
Little or no chance of rain for the next 5 or 6 days. I am holding in my coffee-stained fingers a surface prog chart for Sunday. It still shows a high pressure area (fairly large for early September) centered over New York and Pennsylvania but extending as a ridge all the way SW into Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. This spells dry weather. By next Tuesday, the high should be centered over Alabama. If that verifies, we should stay dry.

TEMPERATURE
Cool nights with lows 62-68 for the next five days. Highs will edge upward to 90 or 91 over the weekend. The daytime humidity will be relatively low, so, not bad.

FOOTBALL WEATHER
Looks great for the Thursday night and Friday night high school football. Saturday college games also dry and mostly sunny.

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
She is just sitting there resting off the east coast of Florida. The 2:00 p.m. position was some 70 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral. But, she is growing stronger ever so slowly. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the east coast of Florida from Cocoa Beach northward to Flagler Beach. I wish you could see a plotted map of the hurricane models. It looks just like a plate of spaghetti. You pick the model and it may go that way. Several models show her looping around to the right and coming back westward. One carries her NE into the open Atlantic. Another brings her SE. At a time like this, I suppose it is better to lean on the official NHC tracking chart. That sends her slowly toward the NE becoming a hurricane Friday night and eventually, at a point about 250 miles east of Savannah, she starts a loop to the right. The 12Z GFS model hinted that no threat to the USA. It is for sure too early to toally rule anything out.

HURRICANE NATE
He was centered 120 miles ESE of Bermuda with sustained winds of 85 mph and no threat to the USA.

HURRICANE MARIA
She is stubbornly hanging on way far away int he Atlantic some 1,115 miles west of the Azores. She was expected to be extratropical by this time, but not yet. She is only a threat to shipping lanes and, I suppose, whales.

DISTURBED WEATHER IN SW GULF OF MEXICO
It persists and conditions may become favorable for a little development in the next day or so, but only under the condition that it will stay over water. Most likely will bring heavy rain to parts of the Mexican coast. Let's hope it doesn't lollygag around for two or three days and then decide to head for the USA. At this time, we think that is highly unlikely.

DID YOU KNOW?
That September 10 is considered the peak of the tropical storm season? Over many years of record, more tropical storms or hurricanes have been in progress on September 10 than any other date. After that the action (if it is a normal year) slowly decreases. However, in any individual season this stat may not hold up, but that is just a long overall view. We have had some strong hurricanes into early October in this part of the world. Does the name Opal ring a bell?

FINAL NOTES
Spent about three hours this afternoon looking at dozens of photographs (about 80) that my son, Steve Elliott, made in Gulfport on duty with the Birmingham Fire Department Heavy Rescue Team. Absolutely amazing. If I can figure it out, may try to load a few of the images here on the blog later...James will be back here early tomorrow morning with his usual video update.

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not a drop of rain for most Alabama communities since Katrina left us 8 days ago, and the dry spell should continue into the weekend, and possibly well into next week. Our rain surplus for the year has just about vanished, and we will have a deficit by the weekend.

I also note both the NAM and the GFS show the dreaded 5940 meter circle at 500 millibars over Alabama this weekend. That means low 90s are very possible. Glad this isn't July with the better sun angle and longer days.

TROPICS: Check out that mass in the Bay of Campeche... that might become tropical storm Philippe today. It is moving toward the Mexican Gulf coast...

Nate and Maria will stay well out to sea, so again today we focus on Ophelia. And, quite frankly, not much change in the situation since yesterday.

The official NHC track keeps it just east of the upper Florida coast through early next week.

Model madness continues. The GFDL and the European still want to take Ophelia to the west, in the direction of Jacksonville and into south Georgia. A number of models, including the UKMET, do the loop thing offshore with the system coming toward the coast (somewhere between Daytona Beach and Brunswick) late in the weekend or early next week. Some models, including the GFS, keep the system offshore and then finally take it out to sea with no U.S. landfall.

I still see no real way this thing gets north of 31 North.. or north of Jacksonville (note the discussion about the ole 5940 circle over the southeast U.S. above).

This might be like Jeanne to some degree... I think the best solution for now is the looping one. Ophelia takes her time offshore, and then indeed does move back toward the Atlantic coast in 4 to 7 days. It might get into the Gulf, or maybe it moves into the Brunswick area with the mass of moisture moving our way. That would work out nicely for us; we need the rain, and it will be greatly weakened by the time it gets here coming through Georgia.

Will Ophelia become a hurricane? I say yes. Latest recon shows the pressure has dropped to 989 mb with max flight level winds of 62 knots. Despite some shear and dry air near the system, I think it will be a hurricane within 24 hours.

So, as usual, we wait and watch.

TELETHON: Don't forget to join us tonight on ABC 33/40 from 6:00 until 8:00... you will learn more about how you can help the evacuees from Katrina. Due to this special program, much of my operation will be shifting down to the BJCC this afternoon, which means I probably will not be able to post an afternoon video update, but I do plan on a blog discussion by 3:30.