Revised statistics from the November 23-24 pre-Thanksgiving severe weather event now indicate that 16 tornadoes touched down across Alabama, quite a significant outbreak. Most of the tornadoes touched down during the early morning hours on November 24 across central Alabama. Based on National Weather Service storm surveys, three of the twisters were rated F2 on the Fujita tornado intensity scale; those touching down in Autaugaville (northwest of Montgomery), around Lake Mitchell, (southeast of Clanton) and near the Shilo community of Marengo county (south of Linden).

Of the remaining 13 tornadoes, five were rated F1, six were rated F0, and two have not been rated due to incomplete storm survey reports. One person was killed by a tree falling through a home in the Bynum community near Anniston, and another death was blamed on flash flooding in St. Clair county. Elsewhere, about a dozen injuries were reported statewide.

Considering the fact that 18 tornadoes touched down, it is obvious that the warning system worked very effectively with only two deaths and a handful of serious injuries. Warnings were in effect for most (not all) of the tornadoes well before the damage happened, and surveys indicate that most people that survived the storms had good warning.

Once again today we will be on our toes for the possibility of severe thunderstorms across the state along with flash flooding. The good news is that much colder air begins to move in tonight and tomorrow, and longer range computer models suggest rather cold weather for the latter half of December. This means there is a very good chance our next severe thunderstorm threat will not happen until sometime in early 2005! I think we could all use a break...

SPC has placed the southern two-thirds of Alabama, roughly from Birmingham southward, under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow.

And, with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches expected, flood watches are up for much of north Alabama as well.

Watch the afternoon video for details:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We have also revised temperatures downward on Friday and Saturday, and have kept in some chance of light rain or drizzle on Friday thanks to wrap-around moisture. I would not be shocked to see snow flurries across the high terrain of northeast Alabama on Friday as cold air moves in and moisture rotates through the base of the deep upper trough.

The clouds could very hang in there through at least part of the day Saturday. I think temperatures will have a hard time reaching the mid 40s on Saturday with a very chilly north wind.

Next week looks very cold as well. Highs on Tuesday could very well be in the 30s, with readings well down in the 20s by Wednesday morning.

The 12Z run of the GFS continues to back down on the idea of any wintry precipitation here at the end of next week, but the latter half of the month still looks cold and unsettled to us. Fun days ahead.

New video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Next rain event begins late tonight into tomorrow with occasional rain and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches could be enough to get some flooding problems going again; and a few strong storms could come into play as well. The good news is that when this rain tapers off late tomorrow, we get into a much drier pattern for at least five to seven days.

I think the forecast package I wrote for this morning is too optimistic for Friday, and maybe Saturday. Wrap around clouds and even some drizzle could keep things pretty raw and uncomfortable on Friday. Clouds might even hang tough into part of the day on Saturday. And, my high temperatures are probably too warm on both of those days. J.B. will have it nailed on his afternoon package later today.

Early next week, a good Polar front moves in here on Monday, and should bring the coldest temperatures of the season by the middle of next week. I still think the GFS numbers are too warm. We are talking highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Which, of course, leads to the issue of the possibility of some snow or ice somewhere across the deep south toward the end of next week. I think the 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS are not handling the western energy very well. Both have trended away from the threat; but we will keep watching. I don't like the solution of the closed upper low over Los Angeles and just sitting out there for a week. Watch the video for more.

J.B. and I are headed up to Cullman this morning for an NWS ceremony to honor James McCravy of Hanceville, a long time co-op observer. I sure hope we get to enjoy some Top Hat Barbeque while we are up that way; they have a new location at the old Shoneys in Cullman in addition to the original spot in Blount Springs!