The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
A quick peek at 2:00 observations... 76 at Tuscaloosa, 75 in Montgomery, 70 in Birmingham. Another day with spring fever breaking out... but you have to remember we had daytime temperatures in the mid 30s with snow flurries just three days ago. The weather will remain very changeable around here during the next two weeks.
It sure looks like the bulk of the showers and storms with our first weather system will come tomorrow night. A few scattered showers are possible between now and then, but the best upward motion and forcing will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday.
With the best dynamics passing to the north and marginal instability, severe weather doesn't look likely. Rainfall amounts of around 1/2 inch are a good bet... the NAM extraction shows 0.57".
Temperatures will cool a bit on Wednesday, but not much. Thursday should be dry and mild with temperatures nearing 70 again.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM: Another round of showers and storms will be likely on Friday and Friday night with a deep upper trough and the associated surface system. This one might have a little better chance of bringing a risk of severe storms, but it is still not a classic setup.
Then, Saturday promises to be a cold and blustery day with temperatures struggling to reach the low to mid 40s. Clouds will hang around all day, and like this past Friday we might have some drizzle or snow flurries. You can forget the spring fever. Looks like we are headed for the mid to upper 20s by Sunday morning.
Then, we warm up again Sunday afternoo and Monday... followed by another storm system and more showers and storms Tuesday of next week (January 17). And, after that, another quick pop of cold air.
Indeed, change is the word.
COLD AND SNOW: Nope, the weather isn't mild everywhere. A band of light snow will move over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas tonight... with some snow flakes possible as far south as I-40. Quite a contrast along the front; in Texas Amarillo is near freezing while Dallas is closer to 70.
STORM ALERT 2006: We hope to have the schedule posted in a few days... our annual weather tour begins in early February. We have some great stories to share and it is always one of the highlights of our year.
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
Spring Fever
January 9, 2006, 2:39 pmA Mild Monday
January 9, 2006, 6:07 am
The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We have added a "bio" section on for all of the writers here... including J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray. Look on the right side and scroll down to the "blogger" section. J.B. and Bill are not employees of ABC 33/40, but they are with The Weather Company, who ABC 33/40 contracts with to provide additional manpower for our Internet products such as the blog. J.B. and Bill give us a total of six people available in our weather operation (we have four meteorologists on the staff with ABC 33/40)...
We have had many requests for more information on J.B. and Bill since their bio is not posted on the 33/40 site. Those guys are brilliant writers and a great addition to the team.
After a weekend away from maps and charts, the first thing I usually see when I get down here Monday morning is the ole thermometer. I am showing 58 degrees right now; not bad for an early January morning in Alabama. Temperatures will be above normal much of the week, although a slight cool down is possible on Wednesday.
This is a tricky little forecast. There will be a chance of some rain at almost anytime late today through Wednesday morning, but trying to tell you exactly when most of the rain will fall is difficult. The HPC QPF graphic suggests rain amounts of around one inch for Birmingham through mid-week. The NAM extraction shows 0.88", in pretty good agreement with HPC.
HERE IS THE DEAL: A weak front will go stationary over the Tennessee Valley today... and the best chance of showers during the day will be north of here. Then, showers will be a little more likely tonight and tomorrow as a strong upper air wave approaches from the west. I think the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will come late tomorrow and tomorrow night as the dynamics will stronger. The actual wave will be passing north of us, so severe weather doesn't look likely. Then, showers should end by early Wednesday as a second front pushes through.
We cool down a bit on Wednesday; highs will probably drop into the 50s.
END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM: Yet another system will roll in here late this week. This one looks a little stronger, and might bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms by late Thursday night and Friday.
As usual in January, the amount of instability will be in question, and the main surface low will be pretty far to the north. But, the upper trough is pretty deep.
Then, a quick pop of colder air returns by Friday night and Saturday; highs should drop into the 40s on Saturday, and a freeze seems likely by Sunday morning.
AND ANOTHER ONE: Looks like a third system will move in here early next week (about a week from now) with a chance of more rain and strong storms.
As you can see, the pattern is very progressive, meaning our weather will remain very changeable. The GFS NAO outlook remains neutral for the next 15 days, so no sign of any cold air shot that will stay for a while. I do note the models build up increasingly cold air over the northern part of North America; that might be sign of a pattern change coming down the road late this month.
RADAR: The ABC 33/40 Doppler radar is back up and running; a big copper strip, used for grounding, somehow got tangled in the gears of the rotor on top of the tower, which prevented the dish from turning. All is repaired and we are back in service.
Will have the afternoon discussion and video ready by 3:30 today....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We have added a "bio" section on for all of the writers here... including J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray. Look on the right side and scroll down to the "blogger" section. J.B. and Bill are not employees of ABC 33/40, but they are with The Weather Company, who ABC 33/40 contracts with to provide additional manpower for our Internet products such as the blog. J.B. and Bill give us a total of six people available in our weather operation (we have four meteorologists on the staff with ABC 33/40)...
We have had many requests for more information on J.B. and Bill since their bio is not posted on the 33/40 site. Those guys are brilliant writers and a great addition to the team.
After a weekend away from maps and charts, the first thing I usually see when I get down here Monday morning is the ole thermometer. I am showing 58 degrees right now; not bad for an early January morning in Alabama. Temperatures will be above normal much of the week, although a slight cool down is possible on Wednesday.
This is a tricky little forecast. There will be a chance of some rain at almost anytime late today through Wednesday morning, but trying to tell you exactly when most of the rain will fall is difficult. The HPC QPF graphic suggests rain amounts of around one inch for Birmingham through mid-week. The NAM extraction shows 0.88", in pretty good agreement with HPC.
HERE IS THE DEAL: A weak front will go stationary over the Tennessee Valley today... and the best chance of showers during the day will be north of here. Then, showers will be a little more likely tonight and tomorrow as a strong upper air wave approaches from the west. I think the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will come late tomorrow and tomorrow night as the dynamics will stronger. The actual wave will be passing north of us, so severe weather doesn't look likely. Then, showers should end by early Wednesday as a second front pushes through.
We cool down a bit on Wednesday; highs will probably drop into the 50s.
END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM: Yet another system will roll in here late this week. This one looks a little stronger, and might bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms by late Thursday night and Friday.
As usual in January, the amount of instability will be in question, and the main surface low will be pretty far to the north. But, the upper trough is pretty deep.
Then, a quick pop of colder air returns by Friday night and Saturday; highs should drop into the 40s on Saturday, and a freeze seems likely by Sunday morning.
AND ANOTHER ONE: Looks like a third system will move in here early next week (about a week from now) with a chance of more rain and strong storms.
As you can see, the pattern is very progressive, meaning our weather will remain very changeable. The GFS NAO outlook remains neutral for the next 15 days, so no sign of any cold air shot that will stay for a while. I do note the models build up increasingly cold air over the northern part of North America; that might be sign of a pattern change coming down the road late this month.
RADAR: The ABC 33/40 Doppler radar is back up and running; a big copper strip, used for grounding, somehow got tangled in the gears of the rotor on top of the tower, which prevented the dish from turning. All is repaired and we are back in service.
Will have the afternoon discussion and video ready by 3:30 today....
Page :
1