The 00Z GFS looks much like the 00Z NAM... both are trending colder with a surface low position south of earlier runs.

This sure looks like an increasing setup for a significant snow for Alabama's Tennessee Valley (the far northern part of the state), and SOME snow as far south as I-20 on the back side of the departing storm.

There also seems to be a good chance of snow showers on Saturday, which could also result in some accumulation.

Going to grab a nap; I will have a full post and video on here by 6:15 a.m....

This is a story of unselfish public service. It is a story about a man in Pinson who has been keeping weather records for 55 years. He has done this without a cent of compensation other than just the pride of doing a good job. His attention to detail is unsurpassed. His name is James Price.

It was great to see that he was given the Benjamin Franklin award yesterday at his home in Pinson. That award is only given to people who have completed 55 years of service. Earlier he had received the Thomas Jefferson award, the highest and most prestigious award bestowed on cooperative weather observers. It was named after our third president, who kept an almost unbroken series of weather records from 1776 to 1816.

Mr. Price has the official instruments at his home in Pinson. He calls in high and low temperature and rainfall to the NWS at Shelby County Airport twice a day. His information is widely distributed. I had the pleasure of talking to him almost daily when he would call the weather service while I was still working. I remember one cold winter night when we expected rain to change to snow. Mr. Price voluntarily called in a present temperature every 15 minutes for several hours in a row. He was that cooperative.

Dave Wilfing, who supervises the cooperative observers from his office at the NWS, said, “Mr. Price is truly unique among all Americans and even stands out among the 11,000 or so coop observers nationwide.”

I couldn’t agree with Dave more. I feel like the Pinson records are as accurate as any in the United States including the large 24-hour forecast offices. I wish I could have been there to congratulate him, but I will do so later.

-J.B. Elliott

Well... snow fans... the new 00Z NAM is coming in with the surface low position about 100 miles south of the 18Z forecast. This would imply a greater chance of getting the ground white deeper into Alabama early Saturday morning. Lets see what the 00Z GFS looks like.

Thanks to everyone for coming out to see us at Storm Alert 2006 tonight in Homewood; we will be in Talladega next Thursday....

Could be a few.

Driving from Trussville to Medical Center East and back tonight, noticed a few places on lesser traveled roads where water was still draining onto the edge of the road.

Temperatures have been falling rapidly tonight. It was already down to 26 at Black Creek, in Northeast Etowah County by 7:30.

While this is nothing like our black ice situation earlier this week, it only takes a small area of ice to throw you into a spin.

Might be a good idea to watch it a bit closely driving to work or school Friday morning.

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Storm Alert 2006 will begin tonight at Homewood High School (the auditorium) at 7:00... I sure hope to see you there. The first 600 people will get a free t-shirt; we have some really good Alabama weather stories and you can meet most of the characters that post on this blog. J.B. Elliott will keep the office staffed tonight and he will be writing the Friday morning forecast package. Quite frankly, I am glad to hand off the baton to J.B. for this event.

After a decent review of current surface and upper air observations, water vaopr loops, model data, and other data... here is the current thinking on coming attractions:

*Rain will become widespread across Alabama tomorrow night as a surface low forms over the southwest part of the state. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely... maybe even some thunder involved, especially south of I-20.

To the north, snow should develop late tomorrow night over much of Tennessee while we get the rain. A large part of Tennessee and Southern Kentucky could see 2 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow night, so keep that in mind if you are traveling to the north.

*As the surface low moves into Georgia, there is a chance the rain will change to snow across the northern third of Alabama before ending early Saturday morning. I think the best chance of accumulating snow will be north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. An inch or so is possible there, but the really significant amounts, most likely, will be north of the border in Tennessee. I sure can't rule out a dusting as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.

This forecast scenario is based on the northward adjustment of the surface low track, seen on the 06Z and 12Z model runs. There is decent agreement; we must note the UKMET keeps the low near the Florida border, with a much better snow potential for the I-20 corridor. I also have to note that 1050 mb high showing up on all the models; I can't recall the last time I saw one of those down here in the "lower 48". That is very cold air.

*Much colder air rolls here on Saturday in the wake of the departing storm. Some flurries will be possible during the day, maybe even a few snow showers. Temperatures will hold in the 30s, and wind chill values will remain below freezing all day. It will be a very raw and cold day.

We should be down in the 18 to 23 degree range early Sunday morning. I think the winds and some leftover clouds will keep the bottom from dropping out. Monday morning could be the coldest with a clear sky and light wind. This will be the coldest two day stretch of the winter season SO FAR.

A warming trend begins Monday afternoon of next week.

LONG RANGE: Same story; I still think the rest of the month, generally speaking, will be colder than normal. And, we will have to watch the interaction between the Polar and the Subtropical jets. Models won't understand that until a few days before each event... just like the models didn't see this storm coming in for Friday night until yesterday.

REMEMBER: Look for a surprise or two just about every winter storm threat like this. Stay tiuned for changes!

I have to pack up and head down to Homewood High School... I will be doing the weather there at 5:00 and 6:00 this evening prior to Storm Alert 2006. Hope to see you and your family there!

Hereare some morning snow depth reports:

2 inches at Gatlinburg, Beech Mountain, Bryson City, Cades Cove and Morristown, Tenn.
8 inches on Newfound Gap
9 inches atop Mt. Leconte where the low this morning was 8 above.

A few flurries were noted down into North Alabama including Centre, Rainbow City, Clay and as far south as Chalkville Mountain Road in Jefferson County. (just a few flakes)

A quick peek at the 12Z models show little change from early this morning and the 06Z runs...

The NAM suggests a mostly rain event Friday night with flurries possible in the colder air on Saturday.

The GFS favors rain changing to snow before ending, with the potential for some accumulation over North Alabama early Saturday morning.

Looks like lots of rain tomorrow night before the cold air arrives.

The weekend still looks very cold.

Full details on the regular afternoon post, which will be here by 3:00 or so along with a fresh video...

* 6 is how many years in a row that Birmingham has gone without measurable snow at the official airport reporting site. Maybe a dusting in the area since then. (Thanks to 3340 WeatherWatcher Mike Calloway for reminding us of that. Mike loves to research weather records)

* 12% is the chance of Birmingham getting one inch or more of snow in February based on long-term records and calculated by the NWS

* 2% is our chance of getting 4 inches or more snow in February

* 113 is how many days in a row with no rain in Phoenix

* 250 is approxmately how many speeches/programs that James Spann does each year

* 4,000 is his estimate of how many speeches/programs that he has done since doing TV weather

* 25,000 is the estimated mileage that he has driven to all those speeches

* 0 is the number of accidents he has had during all that time on the road

* 48 is the number of inches of snow for Anchorage this winter, almost exactly normal

* 19 is how many inches of snow this winter at Chicago-Ohare

* 6 inches is their shortfall so far this winter

* 90 is how hot it got at several Southern California locations yesterday including Anaheim and Santa Ana

* 13 below was the "Lower 48" low this morning at International Falls, Minn

* 26 below was the coldest in Alaska at Point Lay. Alaska has "warmed" considerably lately

* $153.07 is the amount of my latest gas bill. The highest since we moved to Trussville in November, 1999.

* $12.96 was my water bill so that remains very low

* 2 is the number of inches of snow on the ground this morning at Morristown, Tenn., near Knoxville

* 9 is how many hours I was dead in the water with internet service yesterday. However, a spliter went bad at my house. The service was not out in this area.

* 6 is the number of additional gray hairs I have because of that

* 50 is the projected number of extra gray hairs among all our weather group by the time we work our way through the expected weather this weekend.

* 60 is the estimated pounds of newspapers and magazines I recycled this morning. I MUST cut back on my subscriptions. Reading is one of my addictions.

* 200 is the number of days per year that John Oldshue would love to hunt or fish. (that is entirely my estimate, not his)

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

OVERNIGHT SNOW: Interesting to note the NWS in Huntsville had to issue a "Winter Weather Advisory" for Northeast Alabama late last night; for areas east of a line from Petersburg to Harvest to Arab. There was enough snow to cover cars in parts of Jackson County in the far northeast corner of the state.

NEXT ISSUE: No doubt we will have a big time weekend chill, but will the snow fans finally get what they want?

Snow lovers won't like the 06Z model runs; they are trending northward with the surface low for tomorrow night. They suggest the greatest chance of accumulating snow a little north of here, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of rain Friday night, with a quick change to snow on the back side of the departing storm early Saturday morning.

The 06Z GFS is the colder model; the 06Z GFS runs the low from around Grove Hill to Macon. This would suggest perhaps a chance of some acumulation as far south as I-20 early Saturday as the rain changes to snow, but not much.

The 06Z NAM is faster and warmer; it runs the low up I-59 from Tuscaloosa to Chattanooga with only flurries on the back side.

Last night's 00Z runs (both of them) were farther south and colder. Generally speaking, old timers like me trust the 00Z and 12Z cycles more that the off hour cycles. I stilll lean in the direction of those 00Z runs.

What to do?

I am not a big fan of flip-flopping, so I won't change the package I wrote last night all that much. Everything will be adjusted northward a bit, however, with the best chance of a good snow cover closer to the Tennessee line. I still think we have a chance of getting a little snow on the ground down here. Look at the numbers; that is a whopping 1052 millibar high over Wyoming feeding the cold air.

AND, very cold air aloft and lingering moisture could set the stage for instability snow showers during the day Saturday; those things can make the ground white as well.

WEEKEND CHILL: The weekend will be very cold. I doubt if we reach 40 on Saturday or Sunday, and we will be close to 20 early Sunday morning, with teens in colder places. This will be the coldest air we have seen so far this season...

LONG RANGE: I still think the pattern favors one or two more systems like the one coming in this weekend. I know the GFS really doesn't suggest that, but I don't think it it correct.

I have a very busy day today; I will be taping a radio program with Don Dailey at WZZK this morning, and speaking at the Alabama Baptist Children's Homes and Family Ministries at midday. But, both places have good wi-fi and I will be cheking in with thoughts as the 12Z models roll in....