I have heard many media people carping about the “Armageddon” forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and their treatment in the media in association with the Friday outbreak. One commentator rebuked the local media for comparing the event to April 8, 1998. I did not hear that being done. I heard broadcast meteorologists saying that high risk outlooks are indeed very rare and that April 8, 1998 was one of the last ones here in Alabama.

Don’t tell the shell-shocked people of Middle Tennessee that the High Risk forecast yesterday was a bust. The early morning SPC Day One showed the High Risk into southern Tennessee. This was expanded further northward on the subsequent outlooks until the entire middle part of Tennessee was included in the High Risk category by 11:30 a.m. Middle Tennessee had been in the enhanced Moderate Risk area on both Day Two convective outlooks issued the day before. These products gave local emergency management officials and media valuable advance time to convey the seriousness of the situation to the public.

PDS Tornado Watch #162 was issued at 10:20 a.m. for much of Middle Tennessee. By 11:35 a.m., a second PDS Tornado Watch covered the balance of southern Tennessee. As the deadly event began to unfold, the National Weather Service in Nashville issued excellent warnings that had tremendous lead times.

The deadliest tornado struck the Gallatin area in Sumner County northeast of Nashville at around 2:28 p.m. Nine people died there. The tornado warning was issued at 2:11, and specified that the tornado would be near Gallatin at 2:25 p.m. The other three fatalities occurred in McMinnville in Warren County. The tornado occurred around 6:37 p.m. The tornado warning for the storm was issued at 6:22 p.m. The warning specifically mention the city of McMinnville in the text of the message. It also gave a time of 6:35 p.m. for the tornado to be near McMinnville.
Truly excellent work by the NWS Nashville.

After major severe weather events, we often hear tales that seem incredible but are usually true - just hard to believe. That's the case with a story of a young man in Kentucky who found material from Gallatin, TN, in his yard.

You can read the whole story here.

-Brian-

A special happy birthday today to hook echoes. On this date in 1953, Glenn Stout, a technician at the Illinois State Water Survey in Champagne, IL was testing a rebuilt weather radar unit. As Stout and his associates studied the thunderstorm, they noticed that its radar echo had taken on an unusual shape. It appeared to develop a tail, that resembled a hook.

They would learn later that at the time the “hook echo” developed, the thunderstorm was producing a tornado. Later analysis of the film taken during the test revealed that the hook shaped echo was closely associated with the tornado. . It was hypothesized that the hook was associated with the tornado that the thunderstorm produced. Analysis of radar film from a the tornado that devastated Waco, Texas and the deadly Worcester, Massachusetts tornado all indicated the same hook formation.

It became apparent that tornadoes did display a unique echo and that communities could be warned when the echo appeared. Radar indications of hook echoes would become one of the most important tools of meteorologists in issuing tornado warnings with the WSR-57 radar network. We still use the technique today...

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This will be a short post this morning because there is not much to discuss. Models today look very much like the model output yesterday, so confidence is high with consistency in the model runs.

Let's see - ridge, high pressure, anti-cyclone - those are all the ways I can think to say the same thing. Surface high pressure combined with a ridge aloft will dominate the weather picture through next weekend. The upper level ridge flattens a little at mid-week and then strengthens into the end of the week and next weekend. As a result, we will remain dry. A few clouds are possible at mid-week, but with the Gulf of Mexico completely cut-off, there won't be much moisture to deal with. Plus, traveling disturbances will remain well north of Alabama.

Temperatures this morning dipped into the upper 30s. I suspect some of the cooler locations may have reached the mid 30s. With the atmosphere pretty dry, there probably was not any significant frost in those locations.

We're looking for afternoon temperatures to reach the 70s through Wednesday. From Thursday through the weekend it looks like values will climb into the lower 80s - maybe mid 80s by the weekend.

Preliminary storm surveys from Nashville reported that the Gallatin tornado was at least an F3. One of the things I know is that storm surveys take some time to accomplish. Travel in and around a significant tornado path are difficult slowing the process of surveying the damage. And tornadoes are classified based on the greatest damage at any point along the path. This means that NWS meteorologists cannot just go the the spot where they think the greatest damage is. To do the job right, they must review the damage from the beginning of the track to the end. Aerial surveys are the best for getting that done, but often the aerial survey must be complimented by a closer look on the ground. The combination of an aerial survey followed by a ground survey where the damage is the worst results in the best information. Death toll had reached 12 at my last check.

I hope everyone enjoys this beautiful day. I'm going to try to spend time with my wife today, since we have not seen much of each other over the last several days - one of the demands faced by meteorologists everywhere.

-Brian-