A very interesting forecast ahead for the weekend thanks to tropical storm Arlene. Upper air winds really don’t favor any serious strengthening, so it will most likely be a tropical storm at landfall tomorrow somewhere near Mobile Bay, or the western tip of the Florida panhandle. We have to stress with systems like this the most significant weather is often well removed from the circulation center, so you really don’t want to focus too much on the exact center line of the forecast track. When I covered tropical storm Bonnie in Panama City last year, we did have a little rain, but much of the day of landfall turned out to be very nice with a decent amount of sunshine. And, Panama City was relatively close to the landfall point.
We are getting the idea the greatest potential for really heavy rain and flooding will be over the southeast part of Alabama, with places like Dothan, Geneva, Ozark, and Enterprise possibly getting 3 to 6 inches of rain. Amounts should be lighter up this way, but still the rain could be heavy at times Saturday night and into Sunday morning. We will have a much better handle on projected rain amounts tonight as the system will be in the open water of the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is that a strong upper trough over the central U.S. should keep Arlene moving along at a pretty good pace. When tropical systems like this become stalled due to light steering currents, very serious flash flooding is usually the result.
Another positive is that the rain expected over the weekend should give most of Alabama a surplus of rainfall for the year. Just two weeks ago we had a five and a half inch deficit in Birmingham. That deficit is now down to under one inch, and I fully expect rain here to well exceed one inch over the next three days.
Interesting Weekend Forecast
June 9, 2005, 10:13 pmEarly Evening Update
June 9, 2005, 6:23 pm
Far fewer storms formed today over North and Central Alabama.
Early this evening, there were scattered showers and some thunderstorms in a zone from Tuscaloosa and West Bibb County NE to Guntersville and Scottsboro.
All of them were moving toward the north.
It was raining heavily over the west edge of Bibb County. There was some heavy rain for a time at Tuscaloosa Airport.
Over on the East side of Tuscaloosa, there was 0.81 of an inch in 30 minutes at the 3340 WeatherNet site.
Early this evening, there were scattered showers and some thunderstorms in a zone from Tuscaloosa and West Bibb County NE to Guntersville and Scottsboro.
All of them were moving toward the north.
It was raining heavily over the west edge of Bibb County. There was some heavy rain for a time at Tuscaloosa Airport.
Over on the East side of Tuscaloosa, there was 0.81 of an inch in 30 minutes at the 3340 WeatherNet site.
Here Comes Arlene
June 9, 2005, 2:59 pm
The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
ARLENE: Models are shifting a little to the east, with the spread now from Biloxi to Apalachicola. Models are also a little faster; the NAM brings the system into Mobile Bay around midnight tomorrow night, while the GFS has Arlene arriving midday Saturday. Seems like landfall will come during the day Saturday.
Winds aloft will be rather robust over Arlene in the northern Gulf, so we still don't expect it to strengthen into a hurricane. The main problem will be rain; the latest QPF graphic from HPC shows a strip of six inches of rain over parts of Alabama, in the general area from Fort Walton Beach to Muscle Shoals. Trying to nail down the axis of the heaviest rain is very hard to do at this stage of the game, but it is safe to say parts of Alabama could get soaked this weekend. Looks like our best chance of heavy rain here will come Saturday night and Sunday. We will continue to hit rain harder in our weekend forecast.
If the eastward shift continues, it could very well be the greatest rain will come over the southeast half of the state. We should also mention in disorganized tropical storms during the day, the heaviest rain can be well away from the center, with the storms often gathering closer to the center at night. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out... watch the video for more details.
The next NHC advisory package will be issued within the hour.
PLAINS TORNADOES: Looks like a big tornado event over the next three days over the plains states; maybe a high risk needed out there tomorrow for parts of west Oklahoma and west Kansas.
DRIER AIR; COOLER NIGHTS? The GFS continues to advertise a very high amplitude pattern over the U.S. in the 7 to 12 day time frame... we might get into drier air toward the middle of end of next week. If that is correct, the humidity will be lower and nights cooler for a few days. Doesn't that sound nice.
BRET? The GFS still develops a tropical system next week over the southeast Bahamas, and moves it northeast through the open Atlantic. Lets finish with Arlene and then we will take a closer look at that one, but it looks like it will not be a problem for the U.S. mainland.
Running behind the power curve today; J.B.'s afternoon forecast package just arrived and I am about to post it on the seven day discussion and forecast page. Peering at the radar seems like storms are becoming more numerous in the very warm and humid air over Alabama this afternoon...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
ARLENE: Models are shifting a little to the east, with the spread now from Biloxi to Apalachicola. Models are also a little faster; the NAM brings the system into Mobile Bay around midnight tomorrow night, while the GFS has Arlene arriving midday Saturday. Seems like landfall will come during the day Saturday.
Winds aloft will be rather robust over Arlene in the northern Gulf, so we still don't expect it to strengthen into a hurricane. The main problem will be rain; the latest QPF graphic from HPC shows a strip of six inches of rain over parts of Alabama, in the general area from Fort Walton Beach to Muscle Shoals. Trying to nail down the axis of the heaviest rain is very hard to do at this stage of the game, but it is safe to say parts of Alabama could get soaked this weekend. Looks like our best chance of heavy rain here will come Saturday night and Sunday. We will continue to hit rain harder in our weekend forecast.
If the eastward shift continues, it could very well be the greatest rain will come over the southeast half of the state. We should also mention in disorganized tropical storms during the day, the heaviest rain can be well away from the center, with the storms often gathering closer to the center at night. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out... watch the video for more details.
The next NHC advisory package will be issued within the hour.
PLAINS TORNADOES: Looks like a big tornado event over the next three days over the plains states; maybe a high risk needed out there tomorrow for parts of west Oklahoma and west Kansas.
DRIER AIR; COOLER NIGHTS? The GFS continues to advertise a very high amplitude pattern over the U.S. in the 7 to 12 day time frame... we might get into drier air toward the middle of end of next week. If that is correct, the humidity will be lower and nights cooler for a few days. Doesn't that sound nice.
BRET? The GFS still develops a tropical system next week over the southeast Bahamas, and moves it northeast through the open Atlantic. Lets finish with Arlene and then we will take a closer look at that one, but it looks like it will not be a problem for the U.S. mainland.
Running behind the power curve today; J.B.'s afternoon forecast package just arrived and I am about to post it on the seven day discussion and forecast page. Peering at the radar seems like storms are becoming more numerous in the very warm and humid air over Alabama this afternoon...
Mid-Afternoon Update
June 9, 2005, 2:44 pm
Thunderstorms have been slower to develop today and they are not as strong as yesterday.
At mid-afternoon, the storms were only widely separated over the north half of the state.
They are a bit more numerous over the SW part of the state from Washington and Clarke County southward...but still not that many and none strong.
Others will be forming as the afternoon and evening go on and some may produce locally heavy rain.
Our weather will depend muchly on the path of Tropical Storm Arlene. Check our 7-day discussion for what we are expecting and the tropical weather page for all the latest on Arlene.
At mid-afternoon, the storms were only widely separated over the north half of the state.
They are a bit more numerous over the SW part of the state from Washington and Clarke County southward...but still not that many and none strong.
Others will be forming as the afternoon and evening go on and some may produce locally heavy rain.
Our weather will depend muchly on the path of Tropical Storm Arlene. Check our 7-day discussion for what we are expecting and the tropical weather page for all the latest on Arlene.
ABC 33/40 Afternoon Podcast for June 9 2005
June 9, 2005, 10:53 am
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by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Late Morning Thoughts--Mostly Tropical
June 9, 2005, 10:41 am
At 10:30 this morning only one shower in progress in Alabama--a small light one over Fayette County. Deep layer of moist air drapes the state so we will have another round of showewrs and thunderstorms this afternoon. They should be slow-movers which means more heavy rain for some communities.
The latest position report on Tropical Storm Arlene places her pver the NW Caribbean some 200 miles south of the west tip of Cuba...and moving north.
Latest tracking forecast brings her north through the open Gulf of Mexico and a suggested landfall Saturday, probably afternoon, on the Alabama Coast near Gulf Shores. From there she continues northward toward West Alabama toward Demopolis and to near Hamilton by Sunday morning.
A big caution: The forecast that far ahead can be off, so later information and forecasts are essential. (Landfall could be as far west as the Louisiana Coast or more to the east in NW Florida)
Latest QPF charts (rainfall amounts) project a lot of rain for Alabama with a storm total in excess of five inches for much of the area. If this pans out, we may have serious flash flood problems Saturday night and Sunday.
NOTE: Please check the "Tropical Weather" link on the ABC 33/40 weather page for complete information, including maps showing the projected track)
The latest position report on Tropical Storm Arlene places her pver the NW Caribbean some 200 miles south of the west tip of Cuba...and moving north.
Latest tracking forecast brings her north through the open Gulf of Mexico and a suggested landfall Saturday, probably afternoon, on the Alabama Coast near Gulf Shores. From there she continues northward toward West Alabama toward Demopolis and to near Hamilton by Sunday morning.
A big caution: The forecast that far ahead can be off, so later information and forecasts are essential. (Landfall could be as far west as the Louisiana Coast or more to the east in NW Florida)
Latest QPF charts (rainfall amounts) project a lot of rain for Alabama with a storm total in excess of five inches for much of the area. If this pans out, we may have serious flash flood problems Saturday night and Sunday.
NOTE: Please check the "Tropical Weather" link on the ABC 33/40 weather page for complete information, including maps showing the projected track)
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
TD One Becomes TS Arlene
June 9, 2005, 6:35 am
This just in from NHC:
00
WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
00
WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Busy Weather Maps
June 9, 2005, 6:16 am
The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
How about J.B. Elliott making that post here at 3:09 a.m.!
Lets take it all one event at a time:
TD ONE: I still expect TD 1 to become tropical storm Arlene at some point today or tonight. The good news is that is will be fighting strong winds aloft as it approaches the coast, which should keep this from becoming a hurricane. The official NHC track still takes the system to Mobile Bay Saturday night, and most models are in decent agreement.
Winds at jet stream level (200 mb) will be in the 20 to 45 knot range, which is certainly not favorable for any strengthening. And, the major trough to the west of Alabama this weekend should keep the system moving along, which hopefully will prevent major flooding problems. Latest QPF guidance from HPC shows 5 to 7 inches near the coast.
Still looks like our wettest day from the tropical system will be Sunday, and we will highlight a good chance of rain at times. The amount of rain all depends on the structure and position of the tropical system; we will fine tune the forecast as we go along.
But again, the good news is that this thing looks more and more like a big nuisance instead of anything really dangerous. Watch the video for more details.
PLAINS TORNADO POTENTIAL: Still looks very, very good for a major tornado outbreak across the southern plains tomorrow and Saturday. Every tornado chaser in the free world will probably converge on west Oklahoma and west Kansas. The greatest danger they face might be running into each other. SPC has a moderate risk for tomorrow over this region, and it might require a high risk upgrade tomorrow. Driving this is a very deep upper trough, the same one that should prevent our tropical system from getting out of hand.
NEXT WEEK'S TROPICAL SYSTEM: GFS still paints a tropical low southeast of Cuba toward the middle of next week, but the system moves notheast into the open Atlantic, not impacting the U.S. at all.
PATTERN CHANGE?: The GFS still shows a very high amplitude pattern developing in the June 19-24 time frame, with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. This, if correct, could actually bring us drier contintental air with lower humidity and cooler nights. Wouldn't that be nice? But, I will believe it when I see it. The GFS sure is being consistent with this feature, however.
Headed in to the office early today for a series of meetings... I will have the afternoon video posted by 3:30, and J.B. will be staffing the blog through the day!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
How about J.B. Elliott making that post here at 3:09 a.m.!
Lets take it all one event at a time:
TD ONE: I still expect TD 1 to become tropical storm Arlene at some point today or tonight. The good news is that is will be fighting strong winds aloft as it approaches the coast, which should keep this from becoming a hurricane. The official NHC track still takes the system to Mobile Bay Saturday night, and most models are in decent agreement.
Winds at jet stream level (200 mb) will be in the 20 to 45 knot range, which is certainly not favorable for any strengthening. And, the major trough to the west of Alabama this weekend should keep the system moving along, which hopefully will prevent major flooding problems. Latest QPF guidance from HPC shows 5 to 7 inches near the coast.
Still looks like our wettest day from the tropical system will be Sunday, and we will highlight a good chance of rain at times. The amount of rain all depends on the structure and position of the tropical system; we will fine tune the forecast as we go along.
But again, the good news is that this thing looks more and more like a big nuisance instead of anything really dangerous. Watch the video for more details.
PLAINS TORNADO POTENTIAL: Still looks very, very good for a major tornado outbreak across the southern plains tomorrow and Saturday. Every tornado chaser in the free world will probably converge on west Oklahoma and west Kansas. The greatest danger they face might be running into each other. SPC has a moderate risk for tomorrow over this region, and it might require a high risk upgrade tomorrow. Driving this is a very deep upper trough, the same one that should prevent our tropical system from getting out of hand.
NEXT WEEK'S TROPICAL SYSTEM: GFS still paints a tropical low southeast of Cuba toward the middle of next week, but the system moves notheast into the open Atlantic, not impacting the U.S. at all.
PATTERN CHANGE?: The GFS still shows a very high amplitude pattern developing in the June 19-24 time frame, with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. This, if correct, could actually bring us drier contintental air with lower humidity and cooler nights. Wouldn't that be nice? But, I will believe it when I see it. The GFS sure is being consistent with this feature, however.
Headed in to the office early today for a series of meetings... I will have the afternoon video posted by 3:30, and J.B. will be staffing the blog through the day!
ABC 3340 Podcast for Thursday June 9 2005
June 9, 2005, 4:40 am
The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Thursday June 9th is now being served by our RSS feed.
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by Brian Peters
in General Thoughts
QUIET AS A NEWBORN MOUSE AT 3 AM
June 9, 2005, 3:09 am
Not a single shower in progress across the state of Alabama at 3 o'clock on this Thursday morning. A nice lull from all the downpours of yesterday and last evening.
However, another good chance of showers and storms later today.
Based on radar estimates, as much as 4.90 inches of rain fell Wednesday afternoon and evening along the Marengo-Perry County line in West Alabama.
Must be getting close to summer. At 2 o'clock this morning, the temperature was 69 at Dawson Creek in the NW Territory of Canada--about the same as Birmingham!
However, another good chance of showers and storms later today.
Based on radar estimates, as much as 4.90 inches of rain fell Wednesday afternoon and evening along the Marengo-Perry County line in West Alabama.
Must be getting close to summer. At 2 o'clock this morning, the temperature was 69 at Dawson Creek in the NW Territory of Canada--about the same as Birmingham!
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