(Scroll down for an important message from James Spann to anyone who is interested in important work during severe weather events.)

Colorado Governor Bill Owens was quoted saying that “All of Colorado is burning today” as the terrible Missionary Ridge Fire was spreading near Durango on this date in 2002. It seemed that every national news program showed the clip repeatedly.

A single spark from an unknown source ignited a large, fast moving fire on Missionary Ridge northeast of Durango, CO on Sunday afternoon the 9th. The fire quickly roared out of control and would go on to become the second largest wildfire in Colorado history, burning 73,145 acres. It would be the end of June before the fire would be mostly under control. One firefighter was killed by a falling tree. Fifty six homes were destroyed.

The explosive nature of the Colorado wildfires in 2002 was a result of a century of successful fire suppression symbolized by Smokey Bear. We know now that fires are a part of nature, and suppressing the natural cycle gives fires tremendous amounts of fuel that allow them to quickly explode. And explode they did. Colorado’s three major fires in the spring and summer of 2002 quickly grew to become the three largest in state’s history. Usually the high country forests never dry out enough to support a fire with a heavy snowpack that doesn’t melt until late spring and summer monsoon rains that come in time to moisten the forests by mid-summer.

But the winter snowpack that was way below normal allowed the dense forests to dry out quickly. The largely unlogged stands of ancient pine, spruce and fir that defines the high Rockies were a virtual powder keg. The Missionary Ridge fire started at 7500 feet in Gamble Oak and Ponderosa Pine and burned quickly uphill through the subalpine forest of spruce and fir, eventually burning everything in sight all the way to the timberline. Such a fire is known as a stand replacement fire, like the 1988 Yellowstone inferno that burned 1.3 million acres. Such fires are not unexpected and not ecologically inappropriate. The 2002 wildfire season was especially harsh, as 6,400,000 acres burned nationwide, twice the annual average.

My primary emphasis this year in our weather department is increasing "ground truth" for weather events. It is my opinion that our FAR (false alarm ratio) is running too high, and we must have good reports from weather spotters to back up radar signatures. Also, weather reports are critical in weather events like hurricanes, winter storms, floods, and even droughts.

This is the reason for the build-out of our SKYCAM network; live cameras fully controllable in locations all across Alabama. Each SKYCAM site also has a complete set of weather instruments, giving us our own "mesonet" across the state in real time.

While we are building an extensive SKYCAM network, there is no way we can cover all of Alabama with cameras. So....

We are now in the process of building a team of "Skywatchers" across the state. This is not the same as our "online weather watcher" program which we have used for nine years; those are volunteer observers who report daily weather data once daily. A number of our online weather watchers have joined our Skywatcher team.

The Skywatchers will be reporting on active weather whenever needed via instant messaging to the team of meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We have had a "beta" test group in place for a few weeks, and I believe we are now ready to expand the group.

While we welcome Skywatcher volunteers anywhere; we are especially interested in getting volunteers from rural counties in Alabama where there are no official reporting stations.

We need people who:

*Who are age 16 or older.
*Have a real passion for weather and are interested in learning more about it.
*Have preferably attended at least a basic SKYWARN storm spotter class, or the ABC 33/40 Storm Alert XTREME sessions in the past.
*Have easy access to a computer and the Internet.
*Have a digital camera (still or video), and are willing to share images and video of weather with us.
*Can work together with a team of other Skywatchers around the state in a disciplined Instant Message conference.

You don't need any weather equipment to get involved, but if you do have instruments, that is even better.

Your reports will be used by our team of meteorologists on-air here at ABC 33/40, and will also be relayed to the National Weather Service.

We also welcome Skywatchers from adjacent states, especially Mississippi.

Interested?

Send me an e-mail and tell me a little about yourself. I will then forward instructions to you on how to join us on our 24/7 instant message conference.

James Spann
jspann@abc3340.com

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Sure looks like the first tropical depression of the season is forming in the northwest Caribbean. Before we get into possible tracks, remember that early season tropical systems rarely become dangerous hurricanes; their main threat comes from heavy rain and flooding.

Lets look at the model madness with the potential Alberto:

GFS/GEM (Canadian)/BAMD/GFDL
These four models take the system into the "big bend" area of Florida, in the general area from Apalachicola to Tampa Bay. Landfall would come on Monday. Interesting to note the GFDL ramps up the wind speed to 104 knots, or 119 mph, at the time of landfall.

NAM/FSU MM5/ECMWF
These models want to take the system northward, in the general direction of the Louisiana coast. The FSU MM5 is much slower; it holds off landfall until the middle of next week.

For now we continue to lean toward the first scenario, with a track toward the Florida "big bend', and then back out into the Atlantic, running parallel to the east coast of the U.S. On this track, Alabama will be on the dry side of the circulation, with the most widespread rain shield over central and south Florida. Climatology supports this idea much better than a track toward Louisiana.

OUR WEEKEND: Sure looks hot and dry around here. Highs between 90 and 95 and lots of sun. Maybe a few showers by Sunday afternoon, but they will be very isolated.

NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on "Alberto". If the Florida big bend track we like is correct, most of the week will be dry. Highs for the week will be between 86 and 90, with lows in the 60s. Anytime a tropical system is involved, be ready for a quick changing forecast.

LONG RANGE: Seems like the super hot weather will be over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Hopefully a "northwest flow" thunderstorm area will drift down this way from time to time, but the chance of a big rain event looks small in the June 17-25 time frame.

Brian Peters is on vacation this weekend, so we might not be able to get map video online, but we will keep the blog fresh with news and ideas on the tropical system forming to the south of here. Have a great weekend and stay tuned!

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Don't forget the map discussion video is also available on iTunes, so you can watch it anytime. anywhere on your iPod.

Sure looks like we are watching the birth of tropical storm Alberto in the northwest Caribbean this morning. I think we need to give a big "atta-boy" to the Canadian model, which called this thing early in the week, long before other models had a clue.

WHERE AND HOW STRONG? Since the system is in the infant stage, it is hard to answer all of the questions you have. But, the best model blend has this thing headed for the eastern Florida panhandle, or the big bend region of Florida (generally between Apalachicola and Cedar Key) on Monday as a tropical storm. The GFS, the Canadian, and the GFDL are on board with this scenario.

However, there are outliers. The NAM takes this thing toward the Texas coast (the 06Z run), and the BAM runs also move it toward the western to central Gulf.

For now we will roll with the best blend solution, and plan on a landfall (probably a tropical storm) somewhere near or east of Apalachicola Monday. Unfortunately, this will leave most of Alabama high and dry. The system would cross back into the Atlantic, and move northeast parallel to the eastern seaboard as an upper trough re-builds over the eastern U.S. The best rain will come over the Florida peninsula in this scenario (NOT the panhandle).

BEACH TRIP? If the "best blend" solution is correct, most of the nasty weather (wind and rain) with the new tropical system will be mainly east of Panama City; so no big weather problems for the area from Gulf Shores to Panama City IF that solution is correct. However, the surf will be rough and rip tides will become an issue. If you have a trip planned to the coast just keep an eye on future discussions here.

AROUND HERE: Hot and dry are the words for the weekend. Lots of sunshine each day through Sunday, with highs in the 90 to 95 degree range. A few isolated afternoon showers or storms might show up by Sunday, especially north of Birmingham.

NEXT WEEK: If the tropical system takes the route east of Apalachicola, we stay very dry. Again, a few widely scattered afternoon showers or storms might show up Monday, but the rest of the week would be dry. Not good; this will only increase the outdoor fire danger, and not help our water supplies.

LONG RANGE: The GFS builds a whopper of a hot ridge over much of the U.S. in the June 20-24 time frame, which doesn't offer much hope for rain other than isolated afternoon showers or storms.

It will be interesting to watch the 12Z runs arrive; I will have the afternoon map discussion video (which will feature those runs) posted by 3:30 this afternoon...