Today in Hurricane History….

On this date in 1928…the famed San Felipe Hurricane was first detected by a ship in the open Atlantic near Longitude 48 west. The terrible storm would go on to devastate the island of Guadeloupe on the 12th. Then it turned its sights on Puerto Rico. The 13th was Saint Felipe’s Day in Puerto Rico, hence the name, since storms were traditionally named for the Saint’s Day on which they struck. Over one thousand people died in the Caribbean, but a greater calamity was ahead when the hurricane turned its fury on South Florida on the 16th. The storm’s 150 mph winds breached a dike along the southern end of Lake Okeechobee, causing tremendous flooding that killed over 1,800 people..

On this date in 1944: Washington, D.C. was under attack. Not by Axis powers, but by a great hurricane. Weather Bureau hurricane forecaster Grady Norton was concerned. He needed information. He asked that regular military flights fly into the storm to monitor it. Navy and Army Air Force B-24 Liberators flew missions into the storm through the 15th. The first flight came back missing 140 rivets from its wings, sheared away by the tremendous power of the cyclone. The reconnaissance flights, the first sanctioned military flights into a hurricane, were instrumental in keeping the storm’s eventual death toll low. The Great Atlantic Hurricane bypassed the nation’s Capital, but made landfall on Long Island. Twenty seven people were killed.

On this date in 1960...Hurricane Donna makes the first of her four United States landfalls as she crossed the Florida Keys near Marathon with winds of 140 mph and gusts to 170 mph. The anemometer at Tavernier was pegged at its maximum of 120 mph for forty five minutes. Tides reached thirteen feet in the Keys, causing near total devastation with the combination of wind and water. The central pressure at landfall was 930 mb. The storm would recurve to the northeast over Florida Bay and make landfall again near Naples and Fort Myers. Twelve people were killed and 1,794 injured in the Keys as 75% of the buildings between Marathon and Taverner were damaged.

On this date in 1961...As the center of intense Hurricane Carla approached Texas on the 10th, winds near the center were estimated at 150 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft indicated a central pressure of 931 mb just prior to its striking the coast. Only forty six people lost their lives because of early warnings. Severe damage along a wide expanse of the Texas coast was caused by unusually prolonged winds, high tides and flooding from torrential rains. Damage was about $2 billion in 1990 dollars.

More in this afternoon's weather forecast package...

We have just posted the agenda for the 2005 version of Storm Alert XTREME:

http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1

We are delighted that Jeff Craven will be speaking this year... this guy is one of the best severe weather specialists in the world. Mark your calendars now for October 15... more details in weeks to come!

The Friday afternoon map discussion is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not much to say about the weather around here. No rain for the next seven to ten days. The GFS suggests our next chance will come around September 20 when a powerful short wave to the north drags a cold front across the state. Not sure we will get a complete soaking, but at least it will be a chance to get the ground wet. I am concerned the dry spell is not good for our fall foliage season... and, the chance of wildwires will continue to increase statewide.

TROPICS: The NHC is now calling for Ophelia to make landfall somewhere around Edisto Beach, South Carolina Tuesday of next week. This is between Savannah and Charleston. Models are beginning to agree more and confidence is higher now in this forecast. Still, everyone from Jacksonville north to the Outer Banks of North Carolina will need to keep an eye on Ophelia over the weekend. This includes Brunswick and Savannah. A good chance this will be a category two at the time of landfall. The pressure is now down to 983 mb on the latest recon flight.

Maria and Nate are fading away now in the cooler water of the North Atlantic.

Lets bring on the weekend. Been a long week here... looking foward to a little down time. Suffering from a "Thursday Night Football" hangover here... didn't get home until around 1:30 a.m. Thanks again to everyone for responding so wonderfully to our hurricane relief telethon last night!

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This long dry spell will get longer. Today will be the 9th day in a row with no rain for most of Alabama, and it is beginning to look like we will have no rain for at least the next seven days. Quite frankly, the GFS shows no rain here for the next 15 days.

A quick peek at the records shows the driest September on record in Birmingham came in 1897 when only 1.02" was measured. That is followed closely by 1.03" in 1963 and 1.05" in 1970 and 1898. Looks like September 2005 has a real chance of becoming one of the driest on record here.

Rising heights will also mean hotter afternoons in coming days with low 90s likely; about five degrees above normal for this time of the year. Nights will remain relatively pleasant.

TROPICS: Nate and Maria are weakening as they move up into the north Atlantic.

Looks more and more like we see no moisture from Ophelia. And, model agreement is much, much better this morning. A number of the models loop the system out in the Atlantic and bring her to the south Atlantic coast early next week. Seems like the ridge weakens enough to keep Ophelia out of the Gulf of Mexico now.

Most of the models take the storm into the coast somewhere between Jacksonville and Charleston in the Monday to Tuesday time frame. This thing could very well be a category two or three hurricane at the time of landfall; the moisture will be picked up by the westerlies and carried northeast up the Atlantic coast once inland.

THANKS: Wow... our telethon last night on ABC 33/40 generated about $400,000 in only two hours thanks to your phone calls and response. And, add the amount from the Compass Bank/Red Cross "Neighbors In Need" fund from donations in recent days... it brings the complete amount raised to just under one million dollars. I have never been involved in any telethon where the phones never, and I mean never, stopped ringing. It took everyone's breath away.

Don't forget... there is still a serious need for blood donations as well.

A busy day today but I will be back in the office and have an afternoon update and post ready by 3:30!

She gained hurricane status for about 12 hours but as of 4 o'clock on this Friday morning Ophelia is back down to tropical storm status.

She was centered 115 miles east of Daytona Beach with sustained winds of 65 mph. She is finally beginning to move toward the NNE at 6 mph. Her future moves, or the lack thereof, will be most interesting. The official NHC track forecast still has her making a loop and headed back toward the USA mainland in a few days. Generally toward the Georgia-South Carolina Coast.

James will outline all the possibilities with his Friday morning map discussion around 6 am.