Late this morning, he was centered near Latitude 28.2N, Longitude 54.7W and moving NW at 8 MPH. Sustained winds are 40 mph so he is barely a tropical storm.
Again, this should be an open Atlantic storm. He is expected to gradually turn more northward, passing well east of Bermuda, then gradually turning right over the colder waters of the North Atlantic. He should pass well to the SE of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
He may not have time to grow to hurricane strength. That may hurt his feelings.
NEXT NAMES ON THE MENU
We are in no hurry whatsoever to greet them.
WTNT34 KNHC 272031
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
2006 HURRICANE SEASON HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST OR ABOUT 810
MILES...1305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...53.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
Meanwhile, Gordon has been born in the Atlantic. This bit of information from the 5 pm (EDT) advisory:
...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...GORDON...FORMS...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...690 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
BRIEF LOOK AT ALABAMA WEATHER
Widely scattered showers over SW Alabama but very few over the north half of the state at 6 pm.
Off to the west, a more organized area of showers and thunderstorms, in fact a line, was over East Arkansas and parts of West Tennessee and NW Mississippi.
Showers and some thunderstorms will become more prominent in Alabama Tuesday--especially later in the day and tomorrow night. Some places will receive some heavy rain.
* 1:00 p.m. position was 90 miles NNW of Bermuda
* Moving NNE at 14
* Should continue that for the next 24 hours, except picking up forward speed.
* Sustained winds 90 mph with higher gusts
* Minimum pressure 972mb or 28.70 inches
* Large ocean swells causing dangerous rip currents in the Bahamas and along the east coast of the USA from South Carolina to New England.
* Future path should keep the center off shore passing SE of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland eventually.
* NHC official track forecast and other models very accurate from day one on Florence
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #7
* Located 435 miles NE of the Leeward Islands
* Moving WNW at 9
* Sustained winds 35 mph will likely become Tropical Storm Gordon later today
* This one also expected to stay in the Atlantic and not threaten the USA
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
* Sliding off the west coast of Africa today
* Will be moving west over the far Eastern Atlantic
* That one, too, shows considerable promise
* If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Helene
Elevated wind instruments on Bermuda this morning registered a peak gust of 111 mph. We do not know the answer to how much elevated those wind instruments are. At the Civil Air Terminal, gusts over 90 mph were recorded, but around 1:00 this afternoon the peak gusts were down to around 70 mph. Bermuda is small--only about 1/3 the size of the District of Columbia.
Here is a link to all the tropical information:
* At 10 am, Alabama time, passing 60 miles NW of Bermuda
* Moving NNE at 13
* Increase in forward speed next 24 hours.
* Lowest pressure 972MB or 28.70 inches
* Highest sustained winds 90 mph (This is an increase)
* Not expected to grow much stronger
* Very large circulation, so dangerous surf and rip currents affecting part of US east coast
SPOT REPORT/BERMUDA CIVIL AIR TERMINAL
Just before 10 am, elevated wind instruments on Bermuda clocked a wind gus o 111 mph. At 9 am, CDT...rain/fog...wind south 66, gusts 83 mph
High Surf Advisory until 10 pm, EDT tomorrow (Tuesday. Swells have already reached the area. Breakers along the beach today will rise to 5 feet today and 5 to 7 feet Tuesday resulting in large battering waves. Conditions will be extremely hazardous through Tuesday and persons are urged to stay out of the water. Risk of rip currents is high. Beach erosion will continue along the beaches of of south coastal South carolina and north coastal Georgia through Tuesday. The erosion could become severe especially for erosion prone areas such as Tybee Island, Hunting Island, Edisto Beach and Folly Beach.
High Surf Advisory through 8 PM, EDT tomorrow (Tuesday)...gusts to 30 mphlater today.
CAPE HATTERAS, N.C.
High Surf Advisory through noon Tuesday...wind gusts to 30 mph today
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NO. 7
* At 7 am, CDT, centered 495 miles ENE of Leeward Islands
* Latitude 20.5N, Longitude 55.1W
* Moving NW 7
* Sustained winds 35 mph
* May become tropical storm later today
First, you have to promise you will scan down and read about David Black's trip to the Kennedy Space Center to see the Space Shuttle Atlantic take off yesterday. It is one of the best blog posts ever.
Plus Brian Peters has a great travelog of East Alabama.
But tonight, Hurricane Florence is approaching the islands of Bermuda.
Top winds are 90mph, or Category One status. Some strengthening is still possible overnight, but it should be modest if at all.
The eye is about 90 miles southwest of Bermuda. It has begun to make the expected turn to the north northeast, moving at 14 mph.
On this forecast track, the center will pass about 60 miles west of the islands at its closest approach, which should occur in about five hours.
At that time, if the forecast track is accurate, hurricane force winds will only be 10-20 miles offshore. Bermuda should receive strong tropical storm force winds. A storm surge of 6-8 feet is expected along with battering waves.
Here are the latest conditions at the Bermuda International Airport... /
Recorded at 10:55 pm CDT
Wind: SE 30G47 kt (35G55 mph)
So tropical force gusts are being experienced.
Here is the radar from the Bermuda Weather Service.
Of course, our tropical pagecontains a wealth of information.
Tonight, the NHC started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Seven. The system is several hundred miles behind Florence and should follow in her footsteps, recurving through a weakness in the Bermuda High. This depression is forecast to become Tropical Storm Gordon tomorrow, but should have a hard time maturing into the third hurricane of the season. Gordon could threaten Bermuda by late Friday night.
Top winds are 80 mph now and the central pressure dropped overnight to 976 mb.
Florence still is not totally organized on satellite pictures this morning, but the storm does have excellent outflow.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda.
At 7 a.m. CDT, the center of the hurricane was 305 miles SSW of Bermuda. It is moving NNW at 15 mph but is gradually turning to the north and will eventually turn to the NNE. This track will carry the center of the hurricane very near Bermuda Monday morning. The official track carries it about 40 miles west of the island, putting it in the dangerous eastern semicircle where hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles.
When it does, maximum winds are expected to be about 105 mph, making it a category two storm. It should start to weaken after passing Bermuda as sea surface temperatures will begin to cool.
Weather conditions in Bermuda will be going downhill shortly because of the large size of the tropical cyclone. In fact, gale force winds should begin there in the next few hours.
Here is the latest METAR observation from the Naval Air Station at Bermuda...
TXKF 101155Z 09021G26KT 8SM FEW014 SCT021 BKN037 OVC080 27/25 A2987 RMK HZ SLP114
It's overcast and breezy on the island this morning as one might expect...
Conditions at 6:55 a.m. CDT...
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.87 inches Hg (1011.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1011.4 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 24 MPH (21 knots; 10.9 m/s)
gusting to 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
Visibility: 8 miles (13 km)
Ceiling: 3700 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1400 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 2100 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3700 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 8000 feet AGL
The hurricane will continue to recurve out to sea, passing east of Newfoundland late on Wednesday, perhaps brushing the island. It should stay far enough east of the Canadian Martime Provinces (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) to make effects there minimal.
You can also see the tell-tale clockwise flow in the outflow, indicating that Florence is coming under the influence of an upper level high pressure system, which makes the environment conducive for strengthening.
Top winds are 70 mph.
Later today, we may be dealing with a hurricane. Air Force reconnaissance took off from San Juan just before 10:30 a.m. this morning and should be feeding us reports on the storm by early afternoon.
The storm is moving northwest and is expected to gradually begin to recurve and pass near Bermuda early Monday morning, then head out to sea.
It was three years ago when Hurricane Fabian struck Bermuda.
The island is keeping a close eye on the intensifying storm. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the island, in addition to the hurricane watch that was already in effect.
Florence could pass near Newfoundland Wednesday.
* Center near Latitude 13.3N...Longitude 47.3W
* Translation: 935 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
* Moving west 12 mph
* Highest sustained winds 40 mph
* Should slowly get stronger
* Expected to pass well north of Puerto Rico Friday/Saturday
* Every tropical model says she will not touch the USA (Little too early to be 100% certain)
* She should curve more to the NW, then north and finally NE
* Eventual path off Nova Scotia
Sustained winds 35 mph.
No change from yesterday
No significant change expected next 24 hours.
However, just a slight increase in strength could make it Tropical Storm Florence
Something else of interest: A large area of clouds and showers covers much of:
The Central Bahamas
South Florida Peninsula
Central and Western Cuba
SE Gulf of Mexico
Not moving much
Tropical development, if any, will be slow
(Be sure and scroll down to find the latest episode of WeatherBrains. A very interesting one)