Morning Briefing

Morning video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

As of this post the lowest temperature at the Birmingham Airport has been 20 degrees. Still time to slip into the upper teens. J.B. Elliott as always will gather low temperature reports from around the state and post them on here shortly.

Watch the video for details... but here are some highlights:

*GFS goes nuts with temperature forecasts on Monday, forecasting a high of 33 and a low of 10 degees in Birmingham! Maybe it read my rant about always forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s in the longer ranges in Arctic air. We don't buy into that yet; in the current forecast package I have a high of 39 and a low of 24 for Monday. We will adjust later today as needed.

*The confidence in a Gulf of Mexico storm in the December 22-24 time frame is growing. Snow fans are getting their hopes up big time, but I am not ready to make a call yet. And, I probably won't make a specific call until Friday morning. Might be rain, might be snow, the whole thing might be too far south for any significant precipitation here. Just too early to call.

*The weather still looks cold through the rest of December, but some suggestion the pattern might let up temporarily toward the end of the month with a warming trend as the upper air amplitude lessens.
Posted by  
on December 15, 2004, 2:13 pm
James,

I have heard you discuss, many times, your 50/30 theory with the GFS. In the Huntsville AFD today, the following was said, "DEFINITELY WILL NOT BUY INTO THE HOG-WILD GFSX MOS DATA FOR TEMPS AS
THE GFS REGULARLY HAS A COLD BIAS...BUT WILL TREND IN THAT
DIRECTION. REST OF THE EXTENDED GRIDS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD."

I am assuming the person/persons that put out this product is/are Meteorologist(s). I have also heard that the GFS has a strong S and E bias. Your views of the GFS are polar opposite to most I have read. Just interested in your thoughts as to why it seems the NWS has such a different view of this model than you do? Thanks!

Thanks for the excellent job you do everyday!


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