Tis The Season...

The afternoon video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Once again, not much need to change anything. Get lots of e-mail from people who are focused on individual computer model runs. Try not to focus on individual runs, but the TRENDS they show. And, focus on the pattern. The pattern favors somebody across the deep south getting snow sometime between December 24 and 28. Maybe twice!

*Very cold and windy on Sunday with 30s all day, sub-freezing wind chills, and a few snow flurries. Monday morning we go into the 13 to 23 degree range. Most places will be in the upper teens.

*The pre-Christmas storm around the middle of next week will feature rain. Maybe a few flurries on the back side as cold air rushes in on Thursday morning, but nothing significant.

*A major storm will develop in the Gulf of Mexico Christmas eve, and will bring the risk of snow to parts of the deep south late December 24 into Christmas day. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS. But, everything will be in place. It all has to come together at the right place at the right time. This will be our best shot at a white Christmas in a long time. Yeah, I know, the 12Z run of the GFS has the system too far south in the Gulf. I don't really care. The pattern and the trend favors a snow storm somewhere across the southern states. Don't focus on just one or two runs!

*Another storm in the Gulf forms in the December 27-28 time frame which could bring another risk of snow to Alabama. Needless to say, we won't even think about specifics this far out.

And, if you like some real voodoo forecasting, the 12Z run of the GFS spits out yet another snow threat around New Years eve.

Brian Peters will be doing the web video updates this weekend (Brian is a very good meteorologist; he really knows his stuff)... and J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray will be doing tag team forecasting on the web. I will be hanging around this weekend and will probably post some notes here on the blog.

Spend some time with your family this weekend; have some fun and some good laughs!

Posted by  
on December 17, 2004, 4:23 pm
What is the 540 line

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Posted by  
on December 17, 2004, 4:24 pm
Hey James, I've been checking out things up in the gatlinburg area and wanted to know what your thoughts are on the weather up there for Dec. 26-30. Heading up there to get somw skiing in! That is of course if I don't get snowed in here first! ! ! Thanks,

Jeremy

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Posted by  
on December 17, 2004, 4:27 pm
This past summer I moved from Wichita, Kansas to
Birmingham, Alabama and never once thought that
I would see snow, and I am somewhat a snow lover and familar with large snow amounts, and very cold weather. The year I move down here, that I thought I'd never see snow, it just might be like that of the Blizzard of 93? Dreams can happen!


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Posted by  
on December 17, 2004, 5:36 pm
your amended forecast looks very familiar to the ones that you have been knocking (GFS).What has changed? They claimed high 50's and low in the thirties a week ago.

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