Showers Widely Spaced Today

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

As expected, showers are very isolated across Alabama this afternoon, and most communities will be dry this evening. Not everyone, but most folks.

We continue to watch the surface front over the Midwest with interest... big storms are firing over Kansas and Missouri, and that boundary is moving southward. Of course, with time it will lose the southward push as the upper support lifts into northeast Canada, but that front should be over Kentucky tomorrow, and near the Alabama/Tennessee border by Saturday morning.

I still think a pretty healthy batch of storms will move into Alabama from the north at some point tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night, and they could produce gusty winds and lots of lightning. I would imagine a few severe thunderstorms warnings will be required for the potential for strong straight line winds.

Where the front stalls and fizzles is up for debate, but I don't expect dry air to move very far into Alabama. Huntsville and the Shoals might see dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s, but everyone along and south of I-20 will stay very humid through the weekend. I still think the correct course for the weekend (including Monday July 4) is to roll with the typical summer set-up; partly sunny, very warm, very humid, and the risk of a passing afternoon shower or storm in spots. It could be that the most numerous storms on Saturday and Sunday will be south of Birmingham thanks to the dry air trying to slip into the northern part of the state.

TROPICS: Storms over the southern Caribbean are disorganized, and we don't expect any tropical storms through the weekend. The GFS is hinting at something brewing in the northern Gulf toward the end of next week, but that might be convective feedback. It shows another system in the Gulf in the July 13-16 time frame. I sure get the idea things will be hopping in the tropics by late July and August...