The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
SPC has much of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms today in advance of a surface boundary that will slowly approach the state today from the north. As I write this post shortly before 6:00, there is a batch of storms over Arkansas, but nothing happening around here.
The WRF model wants to take that complex over Arkansas into Mississippi and Louisiana, staying mostly west of Alabama, during the day, with a new batch of convection firing on the actual surface front over Tennessee by mid-afternoon. The WRF then moves those storms into the Tennessee Valley late today, and ultimately down to I-20 by 9:00 or so tonight as they weaken. That scenario might be correct, but we have a well defined outflow boundary in northwest Alabama now, and if we reach the mid 90s by early afternoon we could very well have some big storms by afternoon. The main threat will come from strong straight line winds. And, as always, lightning will be a big issue.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Most of the models bring drier air into the northern quarter of the state tomorrow; but can it reach Birmingham? I do think most of the scattered storms tomorrow will be along and south of a line from Anniston to Clanton to Camden. People around Smith Lake, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, and Hamilton might even notice lower humidity values as dewpoints drop into the low to mid 60s (dewpoints are in the low 70s now).
Sunday should be a similar day; the must numerous afternoon storms will probably be south of I-20. Then, on Monday, the moist air returns northward and any Alabama community could see a passing afternoon shower or storm. But, those should be over by the time the fireworks shows begin at 9:00 Monday night.
TROPICS: We will be watching that wave over the Caribbean... something might try to form down there this weekend as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Light winds aloft and very warm water sure seem ripe for something to crank up. The GFS hints at a convective mass moving into southeast Louisiana on Tuesday, but that might not be related to the wave down there.
For all of you J.B. Elliott fans, he will be back in the saddle Monday of next week... he has been on vacation this week. We all love weather, but everyone needs a break. J.B. is the hardest working guy on our team and he sure deserved a break. Bill Murray will write the afternoon forecast package today, and I will be around to update the blog and make a new map discussion video this afternoon, which will all be ready by 3:30....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
SPC has much of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms today in advance of a surface boundary that will slowly approach the state today from the north. As I write this post shortly before 6:00, there is a batch of storms over Arkansas, but nothing happening around here.
The WRF model wants to take that complex over Arkansas into Mississippi and Louisiana, staying mostly west of Alabama, during the day, with a new batch of convection firing on the actual surface front over Tennessee by mid-afternoon. The WRF then moves those storms into the Tennessee Valley late today, and ultimately down to I-20 by 9:00 or so tonight as they weaken. That scenario might be correct, but we have a well defined outflow boundary in northwest Alabama now, and if we reach the mid 90s by early afternoon we could very well have some big storms by afternoon. The main threat will come from strong straight line winds. And, as always, lightning will be a big issue.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Most of the models bring drier air into the northern quarter of the state tomorrow; but can it reach Birmingham? I do think most of the scattered storms tomorrow will be along and south of a line from Anniston to Clanton to Camden. People around Smith Lake, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, and Hamilton might even notice lower humidity values as dewpoints drop into the low to mid 60s (dewpoints are in the low 70s now).
Sunday should be a similar day; the must numerous afternoon storms will probably be south of I-20. Then, on Monday, the moist air returns northward and any Alabama community could see a passing afternoon shower or storm. But, those should be over by the time the fireworks shows begin at 9:00 Monday night.
TROPICS: We will be watching that wave over the Caribbean... something might try to form down there this weekend as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Light winds aloft and very warm water sure seem ripe for something to crank up. The GFS hints at a convective mass moving into southeast Louisiana on Tuesday, but that might not be related to the wave down there.
For all of you J.B. Elliott fans, he will be back in the saddle Monday of next week... he has been on vacation this week. We all love weather, but everyone needs a break. J.B. is the hardest working guy on our team and he sure deserved a break. Bill Murray will write the afternoon forecast package today, and I will be around to update the blog and make a new map discussion video this afternoon, which will all be ready by 3:30....
on July 1, 2005, 6:52 am
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