The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lots happening in the office here this afternoon... J.B. Elliott will handle the short term thunderstorm issues here on the blog... I will be going updates on ABC 33/40 (just finished one at 3:00).
TROPICAL ISSUES: Still no vortex message from the Hurricane Hunter headed to TD3 in the southern Gulf... sure looks good on the satellite presentation and I expect this to be tropical storm Cindy sooner than later. A new center seemingly has rerformed to the north of the original center.
The NHC track from late this morning is now an outlier; the models are more to the east, with landfall anywhere from Morgan City to Pensacola. The GFDL puts Cindy into the central Louisiana coast as a minimal hurricane. But, other models are not nearly as agressive on strengthening.
I am sure NHC will pull their track to the east on the next advisory package, due in an hour or so.
Models are in better agreement about landfall, but still lack consistency in what happens after landfall. The GFDL puts the center of Cindy over Lamar county Alabama Friday... if that is the case Friday here will be windy and wet. But, the GFS and the NAM still really don't develop the system. The GFS does feed very deep moisture in here from the system over the next two days, and I do expect scattered to numerous showers and storms both tomorrow and Wednesday.
Quite frankly the forecast for Thursday and Friday is a guessing game now; I think the best moisture will be east of here by Friday, and Friday and much of the coming weekend could be relatively dry.
DENNIS?: The other system over the Caribbean should become tropical storm Dennis soon. All of the models point this one toward the southern tip of Florida this weekend. The GFS takes it into the eastern Gulf, with another landfall near Panama City early next week, with copious amounts of tropical moisture over far east Alabama and Georgia. Most of the models want to develop this into a significant tropical system, perhaps a hurricane.
Please watch the video today for details on all of this... have to get back to radar duty. Will plan another live update on ABC 33/40 around 4:00 if these storms maintain their intensity...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lots happening in the office here this afternoon... J.B. Elliott will handle the short term thunderstorm issues here on the blog... I will be going updates on ABC 33/40 (just finished one at 3:00).
TROPICAL ISSUES: Still no vortex message from the Hurricane Hunter headed to TD3 in the southern Gulf... sure looks good on the satellite presentation and I expect this to be tropical storm Cindy sooner than later. A new center seemingly has rerformed to the north of the original center.
The NHC track from late this morning is now an outlier; the models are more to the east, with landfall anywhere from Morgan City to Pensacola. The GFDL puts Cindy into the central Louisiana coast as a minimal hurricane. But, other models are not nearly as agressive on strengthening.
I am sure NHC will pull their track to the east on the next advisory package, due in an hour or so.
Models are in better agreement about landfall, but still lack consistency in what happens after landfall. The GFDL puts the center of Cindy over Lamar county Alabama Friday... if that is the case Friday here will be windy and wet. But, the GFS and the NAM still really don't develop the system. The GFS does feed very deep moisture in here from the system over the next two days, and I do expect scattered to numerous showers and storms both tomorrow and Wednesday.
Quite frankly the forecast for Thursday and Friday is a guessing game now; I think the best moisture will be east of here by Friday, and Friday and much of the coming weekend could be relatively dry.
DENNIS?: The other system over the Caribbean should become tropical storm Dennis soon. All of the models point this one toward the southern tip of Florida this weekend. The GFS takes it into the eastern Gulf, with another landfall near Panama City early next week, with copious amounts of tropical moisture over far east Alabama and Georgia. Most of the models want to develop this into a significant tropical system, perhaps a hurricane.
Please watch the video today for details on all of this... have to get back to radar duty. Will plan another live update on ABC 33/40 around 4:00 if these storms maintain their intensity...