YES OR NO ABOUT SNOW--Sunday Morning Thoughts

HOW IT LOOKS AT 6:00 O'CLOCK ON THIS SUNDAY MORNING
We may see just a few snow flurries today, but no accumulation is expected. At 6:00 o'clock on this Sunday morning, the artic front was still several hours away from Birmingham so the temperature may recover to 40 or better before starting to fall. The stronger winds will be later this morning and through the afternoon. There should not be very many snow flurries with all of this.

There has been considerable discussion about a threat of snow by Christmas. Yesterday one of the weather models was gung-ho on that and even suggested 4 or more inches for the greater Birmingham area. Only six hours later, that same weather model had completely flip-flopped and pointed to dry weather on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

I have been in weather many years and a snow threat can be one of the most perplexing problems facing forecasters. Remember that the same amount of moisture that would give us one-half inch of rain could give us well over 5 inches of snow. So, errors in forecasting are magnified.

A few years ago, we forecast a three-inch accumulation for the greater Birmingham area three days in advance. It was based on a low pressure area forecast to develop near the Texas coast and would move east and NE passing across Alabama. The forecast track of the low was very accurate, except it was off about 50 miles when it moved through Alabama. So, Childersburg got our three inches of snow and Birmingham got none. We almost got run out of Dodge.

But we can stand the heat. If not, I would have gotten out of this business years ago. I wish I could live to the age of Moses and be involved in weather all that time!

We prefer to be up front and discuss all the possibilities or lack thereof. No hedging. This weather blog and our 7-day discussion are great conduits for that. We hope these discussions are useful.

We don’t mind the challenge. In fact, it can get very exciting and very interesting. You can rest assured that this week we will study every tiny bit of weather data that we can to see if we have a Christmas snow threat. It is still nearly a week away.

The last three GFS model runs show that the moisture will be well to the south of Alabama. It has also backed away from a low pressure area forming in the Gulf. All this indicates dry weather for us on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Yes, that could still change and we will watch and wait. Hower, at this time, we have eliminated mention of any precipitation on those two days.

We have to live with weather models and, overall, they are very useful. However, at times, they can be very confusing. That's the nature of the business but life goes on.