Quick Dennis Update

July 7, 2005, 9:10 am
Posted by James Spann in Tropical Weather
Rating: 5/5   Votes : 3
The new NHC package is out; the track for Dennis was adjusted a little to the east, and the timeline has moved forward again. Landfall on the new track is near Pensacola Sunday AFTERNOON...


I will write my usual detailed afternoon post by 2:30 or 3:00. On this track the Alabama coast would be on the "good side" of the storm, with significant damage from Pensacola east to Navarre Beach and Destin. But again, this could change!
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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 9:37 am
We're "supposed" to head for Gulf Shores Saturday morning. Will there be enough information by then to tell if we should go or not? Thanks.

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 9:45 am
Hi Veronica...

If it were me, I probably wouldn't go. It is just too close for comfort, with everything changing so rapidly, The last thing I would do is go down, only to have to turn around, and get stuck in all that I-65 traffic in the middle of a hurricane. My in laws are scheduled to go down too, don't know if they will or not now though. I really really hope this thing doesn't come to Gulf shores or orange beach. they are all still recovering from Ivan, it still looks tattered down there. :-(

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 9:49 am
Veronica,
My husband and I are supposed to be heading down there on Monday... Since it is difficult for the forecasters to give extremely accurate tracks that far in advance, you may not have good enough information to make your decision. I definitely agree with Stephanie though. I-65 is a parking lot during evacuations - it is NOT FUN! Chances are, if necessary, an evacuation order will be issued either late Saturday or Sunday evening. I would just watch and wait as J.B. Eliott says. Good luck!

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Posted by New Mike  
on July 7, 2005, 9:54 am
Just remember not to focus on where the center will come ashore. This thing will not come ashore in say Pensacola and the weather be bright sunshine in Gulf Shores... If it were me, I would change plans. Look back at the post that James did yesterday from Bill Burgess and take a look at the surf on Ft Morgan Road... This was just a Tropical Storm!

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 10:26 am
If someone were planning on going to the coast to document a storm and having good sense and knowledge of the hazzards, what happens when there is a mandatory evacuation? Would I be ordered to leave or go to jail? The weather fascinates me as I am sure it does many people. I chase tornados and have experienced hurricanes 50 miles inland. I have a strong desire to ride one out a little closer. Any suggestions beyond "don't go"? This may be a desire of many people. I take full responsibility for my actions and respect and appreciate your knowledge of the weather in keeping us safe in this area. Maybe I can get some pictures that may convince the next person not to go. Thanks.

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 11:02 am
hey mike -

I think my grandmother, who lives on orange beach, once told me that authorities just get your name and next of kin if you choose to stay put during a mandantory evacuation. She could be wrong though - that is a good question, and an answer I would like to know too. :-) I don't think they will let you on the island during an evacuation, unless you are a resident.

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 11:11 am
Mike - I believe that Stephanie is correct. You have to get there before evacuations begin though, if you are not a member of the media. I don't know if they would give you a hassle about staying if you are not a resident. I know for sure Stephanie is correct about the fact that they will get some personal information from you (name, address, phone number, next of kin's name and contact information). You may also have trouble finding a place (condo/hotel) that will let you stay. Good luck if you do go down there!

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 11:53 am
Good point Dacia - Hotels, condos may not want the liability from your family for actually letting you stay in a place that may easily become a deathtrap. You are a brave one, Mike - Good luck if you go, and let us know when you come back :-)

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 11:57 am
We need to look at the inland problems this thing will cause. The farther east the landfall, the more likely that south and central AL will take the brunt of the winds and rain, much like with Ivan, once it passes over land. If a Mobile landfall occurs, most of the nasty weather would be confined to SW AL..as it moves into MS. If a Destin landfall occurs, the majority of south and central AL will see wind damage and heavy rains.

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 12:00 pm
Mike:

I wouldnt really even think about riding out a hurricane. I have experienced MANY tornadoes. But nothing like what I experienced in Wilmington NC with Hurricane Bonnie. It was only a Category 2. There is one difference, you can get away from a tornado. Once you're in with a hurricane...it locks the doors for you. Stay smart and watch it inland.

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 12:20 pm
We're supposed to go to Gulf Shores on the 18th. I wonder if it's going to be so torn up we can't go. Geesh...I hate this not knowing anything!!

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 12:24 pm
Hey James, first off, let me say you r the man!! Secondly, if Dennis stays on course, what will the conditions be like here in Bham and Central Al come Monday a.m.? Will they be like the Thursdat a.m. of Hurricane Ivan? If so, I'm not going in to work, that's for sure!! Let us know what to expect here in Bham-thx so much, Shane from CenterPoint.

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Posted by Bill  
on July 7, 2005, 3:04 pm
Oh Great, Shane is here too! What a maroon

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 12:28 pm
Gulf Shores/ Orange Beach is still pretty beat up from Ivan. They say they have come a long way with repairs, and I believe them, but it breaks my heart when I go down, which is often. I see all these buildings, and business that were around for years, now gone, or tattered. I feel badly for the full time residents (one of whom is my grandmother) Still some time to tell, maybe Dennis will go somewhere else :-)

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Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 12:58 pm
Stephanie- I'm just worried for AL. economically. I don't think Gulf Shores/Orange Beach can handle re-building again this quick. :(

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