The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Models have shifted the track of Dennis to the east, and the NHC track is now on the west side of the guidance blend. Just 24 hours ago, NHC was on the west side of the guidance. Like we have been saying, everything can change.
NHC has Dennis going into Pensacola during the day Sunday. Most of the models have it going into the Florida panhandle between Pensacola and Apalachicola. You can bet our friends on the Alabama coast are breathing a LITTLE easier now; all of these tracks would put Alabama's coast on the "good side", with an offshore flow. There will be some damage and flooding, but the severe damage and most serious problems will be along and EAST of the point of landfall. Just like with Ivan last September. But, I have to stress the models and the track could be pulled back to the west with time, but that seems more unlikely with each model run we see. Nobody really needs to relax all the way from New Orleans around the horn to Tampa Bay.
The GFS now puts Dennis into the Florida coast south of Tallahassee, and east of Apalachicola at 7:00 Sunday morning! The GFS moves Dennis to Dothan at 1:00 p.m. Sunday, and to a point near Birmingham around midnight Sunday night.
SHIPS intensity guidance still suggests 130 mph sustained winds are possible at the time of landfall. Like I mentioned here this morning, there is little skill in intensity forecasts of major early season hurricanes like Dennis, they are very rare in early July. But, we sure see nothing to prevent this from becoming a category three hurricane by the time of landfall.
BEACH TRIP? If you are planning a trip to the Gulf coast anywhere from Gulf Shores to Panama City this weekend, I would forget it. Evacuations will begin on Saturday in the hurricane warning area, which will include much of the central Gulf coast. Weather will improve along the coast on Monday... when it will be safe to go.
INLAND TRACK: The GFS takes Dennis from Birmingham to Nashville, and then eastward to the Atlantic coast, where it comes back over the water and moves northeast toward Cape Cod. It shows no stalling like it had yesterday because of a significant upper trough forecast to form over the eastern U.S. by the middle of next week.
If the NHC track is correct, Dennis has the potential to create a damage path and flooding situation similar to Opal in 1995. This would bring the potential for widespread power outages through much of the state. I will write about the specific impact of Dennis for the Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden areas in this space tomorrow morning... that will give us a few more model runs to see and make for higher forecast confidence.
Watch the video for more details!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Models have shifted the track of Dennis to the east, and the NHC track is now on the west side of the guidance blend. Just 24 hours ago, NHC was on the west side of the guidance. Like we have been saying, everything can change.
NHC has Dennis going into Pensacola during the day Sunday. Most of the models have it going into the Florida panhandle between Pensacola and Apalachicola. You can bet our friends on the Alabama coast are breathing a LITTLE easier now; all of these tracks would put Alabama's coast on the "good side", with an offshore flow. There will be some damage and flooding, but the severe damage and most serious problems will be along and EAST of the point of landfall. Just like with Ivan last September. But, I have to stress the models and the track could be pulled back to the west with time, but that seems more unlikely with each model run we see. Nobody really needs to relax all the way from New Orleans around the horn to Tampa Bay.
The GFS now puts Dennis into the Florida coast south of Tallahassee, and east of Apalachicola at 7:00 Sunday morning! The GFS moves Dennis to Dothan at 1:00 p.m. Sunday, and to a point near Birmingham around midnight Sunday night.
SHIPS intensity guidance still suggests 130 mph sustained winds are possible at the time of landfall. Like I mentioned here this morning, there is little skill in intensity forecasts of major early season hurricanes like Dennis, they are very rare in early July. But, we sure see nothing to prevent this from becoming a category three hurricane by the time of landfall.
BEACH TRIP? If you are planning a trip to the Gulf coast anywhere from Gulf Shores to Panama City this weekend, I would forget it. Evacuations will begin on Saturday in the hurricane warning area, which will include much of the central Gulf coast. Weather will improve along the coast on Monday... when it will be safe to go.
INLAND TRACK: The GFS takes Dennis from Birmingham to Nashville, and then eastward to the Atlantic coast, where it comes back over the water and moves northeast toward Cape Cod. It shows no stalling like it had yesterday because of a significant upper trough forecast to form over the eastern U.S. by the middle of next week.
If the NHC track is correct, Dennis has the potential to create a damage path and flooding situation similar to Opal in 1995. This would bring the potential for widespread power outages through much of the state. I will write about the specific impact of Dennis for the Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden areas in this space tomorrow morning... that will give us a few more model runs to see and make for higher forecast confidence.
Watch the video for more details!
on July 7, 2005, 1:25 pm
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