Late Afternoon Look at Dennis

He continues to grow stronger and the National Hurricane Center fears that he may be near Cat. 4 in about 12 hours.

The eyewall is now closed.

At 4 pm, CDT, here are the fast facts:

LOCATION: Near Latitude 19.0N, Longitude 76.6W which is about 90 miles SE of Cabo Cruz, Cuba. That's also about 125 miles SW of Guantanamo, Cuba.

WINDS: Now sustained winds up some to 115 mph with higher gusts. So he is now a dangerous Category Three Hurricane.

PRESSURE: 957 millibars at the center...or 28.26 inches.

LATEST TRACK FORECAST: The official NHC track calls for landfall on the Extreme NW Florida Coast near Pensacola early Sunday afternoon. Winds at that time are expected to be sustained 120-125 mph with gusts as high as 150. The center will then proceed northward through west Alabama generally along the Camden-Tuscaloosa-Hamilton-Muscle Shoals line., reaching NW Alabama at mid-day Monday.

This spells bad news for Alabama. While Dennis should be downgraded to a tropical depression by the time he reaches Extreme NW Alabama, he may maintain winds high enough to bring down thousands of trees over a wide swath of the state.

Flooding rains will also be likely and the ever present threat of spinoff tornadoes. The best chance of those will be east and southeast of the center so places like Montgomery, Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden and Huntsville (to name a few) could be subject to those.

All of this depends on the path of Dennis. Our usual caution, projecting the exact path that far ahead is prone to a lot of error and changes. It is highly advisable to keep abreast of the latest.

Evacuations from the Alabama-NW Florida Coast will likely get underway tomorrow.

SPOT CHECKS
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, steady rain, wind ESE 37 mph
Posted by  
on July 7, 2005, 5:05 pm
Aside from model outputs,what is your gut feeling about Dennis?Since I am asking for an opinion you could let it be known with the ole take it with a grain of salt answer.I have seen over the years how models change virtually by the hour-In other words if you were a betting man where would you put your money on taking a hit as of 7:00p.m Thursday evaning.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Lee  
on July 7, 2005, 5:13 pm
I just want to thank you for adjusting the program to rerun "Dancing with the Stars" on Saturday. I look forward to watching that and your Tropical Update.

Reply to this comment