Some post-Dennis thoughts...
People along the Alabama coast are thankful that the major threat from Hurricane Dennis did not materialize for the area that was ravaged by Hurricane Ivan last September. Response to the evacuation orders seems to have gone very well. The lane reversal of I-65 seemed to work well. It seems that people remembered Ivan.
I think that NHC five day forecast and graphic is a good thing. It gives business and individuals more time to prepare. But it also raises anxiety levels in people, giving them two extra days to worry about a storm. I thought that the NHC did a great job with this storm. The only problem that I noticed was that sometimes there were delays in getting the public advisories posted to the NHC website. The Hurricane Center was careful not to flip flop back and forth on their forecast track, despite numerous opportunities to do so because of the numerical weather prediction. This consistency is important. Max Mayfield, director of the NHC, placed personal phone calls to Panama City television stations in order to emphasize the threat that Dennis would bring to the Florida Panhandle. It turned out to be very important in emphasizing the threat to places like Destin.
Damage is lighter than one would expect with a Category Three hurricane. Some theories have been advanced that the strong upper level winds could not translate to the surface because of a relative lack of really heavy convection in rain bands. The storm also weakened a bit before landfall, possibly because of cooler water.
The casinos along the Mississippi closed Saturday afternoon. They reopened Sunday afternoon. The Mississippi coast escape major effects from Dennis.
Why are we having so many hurricanes? Quite simple. It’s not global warming. It is a know climatic factor called the Multi-decadal oscillation. Every twenty years or so, the Atlantic warms and the Pacific cools. Twenty years later, it flips. Since 1995 or so, we have been in a warm Atlantic phase. It has corresponded to a period of much above normal Atlantic hurricane activity. I bet we see Phillipe before the 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is over.
People along the Alabama coast are thankful that the major threat from Hurricane Dennis did not materialize for the area that was ravaged by Hurricane Ivan last September. Response to the evacuation orders seems to have gone very well. The lane reversal of I-65 seemed to work well. It seems that people remembered Ivan.
I think that NHC five day forecast and graphic is a good thing. It gives business and individuals more time to prepare. But it also raises anxiety levels in people, giving them two extra days to worry about a storm. I thought that the NHC did a great job with this storm. The only problem that I noticed was that sometimes there were delays in getting the public advisories posted to the NHC website. The Hurricane Center was careful not to flip flop back and forth on their forecast track, despite numerous opportunities to do so because of the numerical weather prediction. This consistency is important. Max Mayfield, director of the NHC, placed personal phone calls to Panama City television stations in order to emphasize the threat that Dennis would bring to the Florida Panhandle. It turned out to be very important in emphasizing the threat to places like Destin.
Damage is lighter than one would expect with a Category Three hurricane. Some theories have been advanced that the strong upper level winds could not translate to the surface because of a relative lack of really heavy convection in rain bands. The storm also weakened a bit before landfall, possibly because of cooler water.
The casinos along the Mississippi closed Saturday afternoon. They reopened Sunday afternoon. The Mississippi coast escape major effects from Dennis.
Why are we having so many hurricanes? Quite simple. It’s not global warming. It is a know climatic factor called the Multi-decadal oscillation. Every twenty years or so, the Atlantic warms and the Pacific cools. Twenty years later, it flips. Since 1995 or so, we have been in a warm Atlantic phase. It has corresponded to a period of much above normal Atlantic hurricane activity. I bet we see Phillipe before the 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season is over.
on July 10, 2005, 11:27 pm
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