The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Our pal Dennis brought a vast supply of tropical moisture from the Gulf and the Caribbean into Alabama. The 12Z sounding from the Shelby County Airport shows precipitatible water of 1.94"... about as high as it gets.
A band of storms over east Alabama prompted the NWS in Birmingham to issue a flash flood warning for a number of counties early this afternoon.
Our weather won't change much through Friday; lots of clouds each day, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While most of them will come in the afternoon, in this kind of airmass you can't rule out a shower at night or during the morning. The showers and storms should become more widely scattered late this weekend and early next week as heights rise, but an approaching surface boundary will bring an increase of showers and storms again toward the middle of next week.
I still see absolutely no sign of excessive heat (mid 90s or hotter) here for the next 15 days... in fact the GFS develops a big trough over the eastern U.S. toward the end of the month.
EMILY: The system is really moving quickly; at 20 mph. Until it slows down a bit I am not sure it can deepen explosively. The latest GFDL run still ramps this thing up to 126 knots in a couple of days. The NHC position has Emily just south of Cuba Sunday morning, very close to the position of Dennis when it was moving into Cuba.
The 12Z GFS takes Emily almost due west, across the Yucatan peninsula, into the Bay of Campeche, and into the far southern coast of Mexico. Everyone in Mobile, Gulf Shores, and Pensacola would celebrate this, but I sure would not trust the GFS on a tropical system so far in advance. The GFS might be right, but it might be wrong.
Check out the video and see the sea surface temperatures... very, very warm in the western Gulf. There has indeed been upwelling in the central and eastern Gulf from Cindy and Dennis, and waters are a little cooler. If something gets into the western Gulf, Galveston, Corpus Cristi, and Brownville need to be watching very, very closely. Something could really explode over there.
My gut feeling says Emily goes into far southern Texas or Mexico; with the mid-latitude trough in the westerlies too far noth to bring a northward motion early next week. But, as I have said here many many times, you don't forecast the weather and run your life based on FEELINGS. They will lie and get you in trouble!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Our pal Dennis brought a vast supply of tropical moisture from the Gulf and the Caribbean into Alabama. The 12Z sounding from the Shelby County Airport shows precipitatible water of 1.94"... about as high as it gets.
A band of storms over east Alabama prompted the NWS in Birmingham to issue a flash flood warning for a number of counties early this afternoon.
Our weather won't change much through Friday; lots of clouds each day, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. While most of them will come in the afternoon, in this kind of airmass you can't rule out a shower at night or during the morning. The showers and storms should become more widely scattered late this weekend and early next week as heights rise, but an approaching surface boundary will bring an increase of showers and storms again toward the middle of next week.
I still see absolutely no sign of excessive heat (mid 90s or hotter) here for the next 15 days... in fact the GFS develops a big trough over the eastern U.S. toward the end of the month.
EMILY: The system is really moving quickly; at 20 mph. Until it slows down a bit I am not sure it can deepen explosively. The latest GFDL run still ramps this thing up to 126 knots in a couple of days. The NHC position has Emily just south of Cuba Sunday morning, very close to the position of Dennis when it was moving into Cuba.
The 12Z GFS takes Emily almost due west, across the Yucatan peninsula, into the Bay of Campeche, and into the far southern coast of Mexico. Everyone in Mobile, Gulf Shores, and Pensacola would celebrate this, but I sure would not trust the GFS on a tropical system so far in advance. The GFS might be right, but it might be wrong.
Check out the video and see the sea surface temperatures... very, very warm in the western Gulf. There has indeed been upwelling in the central and eastern Gulf from Cindy and Dennis, and waters are a little cooler. If something gets into the western Gulf, Galveston, Corpus Cristi, and Brownville need to be watching very, very closely. Something could really explode over there.
My gut feeling says Emily goes into far southern Texas or Mexico; with the mid-latitude trough in the westerlies too far noth to bring a northward motion early next week. But, as I have said here many many times, you don't forecast the weather and run your life based on FEELINGS. They will lie and get you in trouble!
on July 12, 2005, 11:38 pm
all of the staff there are just a blessing.
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