The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking at model data extraction, 500 mb heights will hold in the 5920 to 5950 meter range for the rest of the week, with temperatures in the -5 to -6 (C) range. Bottom line is that pretty typical summer weather will continue for a while, with hot humid days and the risk of a brief afternoon storm in spots.
The GFS tries to get us on the eastern edge of the heat bubble late this week and early in the weekend (on the 12Z run), and it could be that storms will increase a bit due to the "ring of fire" effect on the periphery of the heat ridge, but I don't have enough confidence now to really show a marked difference in the weather on those days. Bottom line is that safest course is the ole "broad brush" approach and go with your standard summer forecast through the weekend.
The GFS MOS goes a little nuts and forecasts upper 90s here by Saturday, but I don't buy that due to the extensive soil moisture in place. We might hit the mid 90s on a day or two, but I think we will be mostly in the low 90s across the board.
TROPICS: Watch the video and check out that negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) spike around the first of August. HMMMMM. That might suggest we need to be watching the tropics closely about that time. More on the NAO tomorrow.
Emily goes into the Mexican coast late tonight about 50 to 100 miles south of Brownsville. Again, good job NHC with their forecast of this system. Hopefully our friends along the Rio Grande Valley can see some beneficial rain without wind damage tonight and tomorrow... they sure need it.
ON THE RADIO: Thanks for everyone who has been listening to WZZK this week while I fill in for "Johnson and Johnson"... I am on the air from 6:00 until 9:00 through Friday. Had a great "Bama's Best BBQ" contest this morning; I will write about it on a post that will be on here tonight.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking at model data extraction, 500 mb heights will hold in the 5920 to 5950 meter range for the rest of the week, with temperatures in the -5 to -6 (C) range. Bottom line is that pretty typical summer weather will continue for a while, with hot humid days and the risk of a brief afternoon storm in spots.
The GFS tries to get us on the eastern edge of the heat bubble late this week and early in the weekend (on the 12Z run), and it could be that storms will increase a bit due to the "ring of fire" effect on the periphery of the heat ridge, but I don't have enough confidence now to really show a marked difference in the weather on those days. Bottom line is that safest course is the ole "broad brush" approach and go with your standard summer forecast through the weekend.
The GFS MOS goes a little nuts and forecasts upper 90s here by Saturday, but I don't buy that due to the extensive soil moisture in place. We might hit the mid 90s on a day or two, but I think we will be mostly in the low 90s across the board.
TROPICS: Watch the video and check out that negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) spike around the first of August. HMMMMM. That might suggest we need to be watching the tropics closely about that time. More on the NAO tomorrow.
Emily goes into the Mexican coast late tonight about 50 to 100 miles south of Brownsville. Again, good job NHC with their forecast of this system. Hopefully our friends along the Rio Grande Valley can see some beneficial rain without wind damage tonight and tomorrow... they sure need it.
ON THE RADIO: Thanks for everyone who has been listening to WZZK this week while I fill in for "Johnson and Johnson"... I am on the air from 6:00 until 9:00 through Friday. Had a great "Bama's Best BBQ" contest this morning; I will write about it on a post that will be on here tonight.