There was a great deal of media attention this week to the updated forecasts for the 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Both NOAA and Dr. Bill Gray released updated forecast for this season that reflected even higher predictions of storm counts than earlier announced. NOAA is now calling for 18-21 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), 9-11 hurricanes and 5-7 major hurricanes (category three or higher.) The averages for a season are ten named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes.
There have already been nine tropical storms and hurricanes, two of which went on to become hurricanes. Dennis and Emily both were major hurricanes. Despite this unprecedented early season activity, the peak of hurricane season is still ahead.
The increased activity continues a trend of above normal activity that started in 1995. Since then, seven of the ten North Atlantic Hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity. The only years that have been below normal were El Nino years, a known limiting factor in North Atlantic Hurricane formation.
All of this increased activity has raised the concern that there might be a correlation between increased hurricane counts and global climate change. An MIT researcher recently published a report in the science journal Nature last week that indicated there is a correlation between global warming and the intensity and duration of hurricanes. His research indicated that as global temperatures continue to rise as expected, we will be faced with more powerful, longer lasting hurricanes.
Dr. Bill Gray, a leading hurricane climatologist and NOAA researcher Chris Landsea disagree with the claim that global warming is leading to more hurricanes. There is a clearly demonstrated climate cycle called the Multi-decadal oscillation. It is tied closely to the Great Oceanic Conveyor Belt. Every couple of decades, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures rise in response to changes in worldwide oceanic currents. The result is a 15-20 year period of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic. We have been in this active phase for ten years now. Just how long will is last? No one really knows. Keep your fingers crossed that all these storms will miss land.
There have already been nine tropical storms and hurricanes, two of which went on to become hurricanes. Dennis and Emily both were major hurricanes. Despite this unprecedented early season activity, the peak of hurricane season is still ahead.
The increased activity continues a trend of above normal activity that started in 1995. Since then, seven of the ten North Atlantic Hurricane seasons have featured above normal activity. The only years that have been below normal were El Nino years, a known limiting factor in North Atlantic Hurricane formation.
All of this increased activity has raised the concern that there might be a correlation between increased hurricane counts and global climate change. An MIT researcher recently published a report in the science journal Nature last week that indicated there is a correlation between global warming and the intensity and duration of hurricanes. His research indicated that as global temperatures continue to rise as expected, we will be faced with more powerful, longer lasting hurricanes.
Dr. Bill Gray, a leading hurricane climatologist and NOAA researcher Chris Landsea disagree with the claim that global warming is leading to more hurricanes. There is a clearly demonstrated climate cycle called the Multi-decadal oscillation. It is tied closely to the Great Oceanic Conveyor Belt. Every couple of decades, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures rise in response to changes in worldwide oceanic currents. The result is a 15-20 year period of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic. We have been in this active phase for ten years now. Just how long will is last? No one really knows. Keep your fingers crossed that all these storms will miss land.