Mid-Morning Thoughts On Katrina

August 26, 2005, 9:51 am
Posted by James Spann in Tropical Weather
Rating: 3/5   Votes : 2
Looking at the new 12Z model output..

The new run of the NAM moves Katrina into Florida east of Apalachicola early Monday morning... and is an outlier to the east.

The latest run I have of the Florida State MM5 (06Z run) has landfall near Apalachicola.

The GFDL right on NHC track... into the vicinity of Panama City.

The Canadian GEM model is also right on the NHC track... near Panama City.

BAM models have shifted a bit west... toward Pensacola.

The NOGAPS model is now an outlier to the west... it takes Katrina to Louisiana. We totally discount that solution.

NHC didn't change their track much at all... which I think is the best course of action. Blend these models and you come up with a point near Panama City.

Sustained winds now 100 mph... this thing is going to be a major hurricane at the time of the Gulf landfall. I fear NHC wind guidance might be too conservative.

Headed over to St. Clair county for a midday speech... be back in the office for the long afternoon discussion and video update by 3:30.
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Posted by Mike  
on August 26, 2005, 10:30 am
12Z run of the GFS has shifted west... showing a landfall in Louisiana.

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 10:33 am
Hey Mike I don't buy the 12Z I think it will be right where the NHC has it.

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Posted by Mike  
on August 26, 2005, 10:38 am
Yeah, that's probably still the best track. But it is important to note when the models do shift.

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 11:05 am
I think noone can tell what mother nature will do!

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 11:16 am
There's nothing stopping this thing from Cat 5 status. No upwelling, no shear. Already good outflow after being over the Gulf for only a few hours. Only thing would be the dry air pocket that James mentioned. But it's all a timing issue. This could be bad.

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 11:36 am
frightning thing is..... my family in orange beach wasnt even watching this thing till i brought it up earlier!!!! normally they do. something tells me that all the hype is focused exclusively for FL. regardless of what the models say, i still think people on the AL gulf coast still need to keep their eyes and ears open, and be ready to go if they need to.

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 11:53 am
MIcheal .. I wouldnt say that . Every run , throw out a few, has trended further and further west. The longer she continues her SW to Westward movement , the later she will be affected by the upper air trough , which means , the later she turns morth.... For her to hit the NHC track now.... SHe better start her turn , and I mean soon.... The weakening of the midlevel tropical ridge to the north of katrina is going to be the deciding factor on when she starts her turn, But You can sit and follow along with the NHC all you want , BUt she has done nothing but continually change their forcast, and I know .. And I am not complaining ..I am Doing what all of us are doing..Making forcasts on a tropical system that can not follow directions.... BUt I made the forcast yesterday morning of Pensacola..WHich was furhter west than any of the models, less the GFDL, and now they are all in agreenment with my original forcast, however , I am moving my forcast west ..Probably... But as of now ....Pensacola is still my choice....

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 12:13 pm
Hey Rusty good point I did not think of that, But I think you are right. If this thing keeps up the current movement than I think we get some very rough weather.

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Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 12:24 pm
OK its now 1315 and we now have 3 of the models that are forcasting trouble for us..... Here in Central Al. and loads of trouble for the AL gulf coast.... The GFDL, THe LBAR, and the UKmet have all went west of AL.... I am beginning to start to wonder if my Pensacola track is out to lunch...Well James it happens even to us armchair forcasters...we have to start giving our disclaimer that this is just a forcast .... Can I ask a Question .. Is this why they used to only use womans names??Becasue they cant make up their minds??? J/K HAHAHA ... Please no hate mail....... IT was a Joke....

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Posted by Disturbed  
on August 26, 2005, 12:52 pm
KATRINA IS A MAJOR THREAT TO ALABAMA. People need to start preparing now. I know James said it would stay east of us, but that's not going to happen.

It's time to ramp up your preparations, everyone.

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Posted by Jan  
on August 26, 2005, 1:08 pm
Disturbed....do you think that Central Alabama will be in the path?

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Posted by John  
on August 26, 2005, 9:46 pm
Hey Disturbed, why not see a dr. and leave James alone. If you can do anybetter go to school and put on his shoes. You apparently don't listen when they say stay tuned for changes. Darn imagine its weather and it changes. Get help buddy!

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