Early Afternoon Hurricane Notes

August 26, 2005, 12:05 pm
Posted by J.B. Elliott in Tropical Weather
Rating: 5/5   Votes : 4
Miss Katrina continues to plow westward into very warm and friendly waters of the SE Gulf this afternoon. Still get a good picture of her on radar and she still looks well organized. She is already a Category 2. Indications are that before she makes landfall she will be a major hurricane, possibly a Category 3 or even a 4.

Possibly could compare her to Opal in early October 1995. Opal exploded into a very scary hurricane in the Central Gulf, but at the last minute she weakened before landfall. Part of that was due to cooler sea surface temperatures within 100 miles of the Alabama-NW Florida coast. Don't have those this time. The water is very warm, 88 to 90.

Eventual landfall number two is expected somewhere on the NW Florida coast early Monday. Most favored area seems to be around Panama City, but it could be west of there. Everything bears watching.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL REPORTS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
7.58 inches at Marathon Airport
8.23 at Curry Hammock State Park
4.18 at Miami International Airport
7.71 at West Kendall/Tamiami Airport
5.30 at Chekika Everglades

EARLY AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
Ft. Myers...cloudy, wind SE, gusts 39
Naples...cloudy, east 23, gusts 36
Miami Beach...SE 30, gusts 36
Key West...south 54, gusts 68 (visibility one-half mile in snow)

DON'T YOU LOVE COMPUTERS?
The automated observation from Key West Airport at 1:00 o'clock this afternoon indicated 75 degrees with south winds averaging 54 mph with gusts to 68 and visibility one-half mile in snow.

Oh, for the good old days when real live humans took the weather observations.
Mail this   Printer friendly   
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 12:13 pm
JB:

Isnt it true that the longer the westward motion continues, the farther west the projected path will move? For it to impact the NHC forecast path area, it would have to take a right turn within the next 6 hours, and continue on the uninterrupted. Something just doesn't set well with this storm. It might be another Ivan.

Reply to this comment
Posted by OkieBama  
on August 26, 2005, 12:28 pm
The NHC forecast now has hurricane coming on shore at the Alabama/Florida border and coming up through Alabama Monday through Tuesday according to The Weather Channel. You can see this at www.weather.com.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Disturbed  
on August 26, 2005, 12:34 pm
James and JB: Why are y'all so reluctant to recognize that KATRINA IS A MAJOR THREAT TO ALABAMA? Because a few days ago James said it wasn't coming to Alabama? Well, it's time to swallow your pride, James. People need to start preparing now.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 12:56 pm
Dear Disturbed...
I usually ignore unsigned posts but I am going to break my rule and answer yours. Don't know why you did not sign your name because we do not get upset with people that disagree.

Swallow our pride? I assure you pride does not get in the way when we are dealing with a serious situation like this. We simply do not yet know if Katrina is a serious threat to Alabama. You can find a model that will show you anything you want to hear.

It is true that her continued westward movement would hint at a further west landfall. But hurricanes have been known to slow down, stall and make a sharp turn to the NE. The NHC track forecast still indicates LF in the general vicinity of Panama City. Sure, that could change but we would not be doing the public a favor if we came out now predicting a disaster along the Alabama Coast. LF is still nearly three days away.

I am speaking for myself, but I have known James for over 25 years and I have never seen him to be reluctant to admit when he is wrong.

Thanks for your note...



Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:03 pm
Hey JB great answer I agree with you 100%, don't worry about people like that.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:05 pm
I mentioned here yesterday that I was concerned that the models keep nudging this thing to the west. I also aded that the worst part would be that Kat would have much more time to "bomb out" the Gulf.

As concerned as I was yesterday, now I really think it's beginning to unfold that way. Not only does Kat continue westward, she's actually has moved south of due west for 24 hours now. As a matter of fact, the NHC track is now the "outlier" to the east. I think all models are now sending her towards the MS/AL/FL coast.

Unfortunately I think that this storm will be worse than Dennis and will probably be at least as strong as Ivan.

God bless our friends and neighbors to the south!

Reply to this comment
Posted by Mike  
on August 26, 2005, 1:08 pm
JB,

I agree with your post. The only problem I've had during the past few days on the blog was when Mr. Spann said that "residents of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach can breathe a little easier." That was at least 5 days before a possible landfall, and we know how much the track can change during that time period. I think he was a little premature in saying that. However, I know that the blog is not his official forecast, and a place where he gives his "gut feeling" But a lot of people from the Gulf Coast read the blog, and seeing his statement, they might have gotten the idea that there was no chance the storm would affect Alabama.

I respect James Spann, and he is, in my opinion, the best meteorologist in the state of Alabama. But I think he might have jumped the gun a bit too soon in this situation.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Billy Bob  
on August 26, 2005, 1:11 pm
I am beaming this message from the future. The eye will pass over the AL/FL border with landfall winds of 135 MPH. Please make preperations now. Thank you.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:13 pm
There are WAY more armchair meteorologists on this post at ALL times with opinions on different items. James made a statement saying the the AL coast could "breathe easier". Not ONCE did he say there would not be a landfall. As always, he followed up his comments with, "We'll just have to wait and see." When it comes to this storm, we have the same maps and satellite images at our fingertips as James and the crew does. So, if that is the case, why slam him for making ONE statement. People have opinions on here that make no sense sometimes, but they are tolerated. James and guys, you have MY support. All the way.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:14 pm
YOu go JB... I have to admit THat , Even I have been in complete disagreement with you guys since the beginning of this, but I still call myself the armchair forcaster.... Yall are the professionals...I wish you would have left that unsiigned post alone... I would have enjoyed tackling that one...but I am starting to really get concerned for our friends to the south.. I know that It is easy for us to complaine about wall to wall coverage, or complaine about shutting 65 S down to evacuate , after the event is over... During IVan people complained about Not enough preparidness, During Dennis, People complained about too Much .... WHo , or when are the ones who make the decisions to start planning for an ALabama Lanfall. ???

Reply to this comment
Posted by Billy Bob  
on August 26, 2005, 1:17 pm
Also, there will be another little surprise in store for the Bham area. There is an undetected arctic front barreling down from canada right now, the first ever in history in August. Get you milk and bread now. This will be a hurri-blizzard.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:18 pm
J.B., don't take anything personally.

But the possiblity exists that we could be facing an Ivan/Opal/Dennis situation up here in central Alabama. Having said that, given what has happened, people are going to be a little jumpy whenever they see a map that puts our "stomping grounds" in the path of a strengthening hurricane.

This possiblity should be covered, IMHO.


Reply to this comment
Posted by bill  
on August 26, 2005, 1:25 pm
You know Billy Bob may be on to something....on the reports above Key West visibility was already down to 1/2 mile in snow.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:32 pm
go jb !! you have wonderful way with words.... i agree wholeheartedly!

Reply to this comment
Posted by Billy Bob  
on August 26, 2005, 1:35 pm
10 feet of snow is going to take forever to melt

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:50 pm
I'm plum confused now. Hear me an Curtis was loaden up the pickup truck this afternoon cause James done said no hurricane for Gulf Shores. We was going to put our truck out there on the sand and camp and fish. Curtis done made up his mind alredy to go. No stopping him. No way. So were going on down their. I just hope we make it. Are their going to be tornadas up hear in Walker cause ever time one of these storms come thru James say the tornadas is comen. Well we'll just pray and pray that this tropicle storm stays out of our hair and drink a lot to. I have better vacations with Curtis when I'm drunk. Also need to go down to the Pig and make sure I get my cigretts cause if everone around hear thanks a storms comen the cigrettes will all be gone.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Billy Bob  
on August 26, 2005, 1:57 pm
^^^ thats what happens when Walmart has a sale on computers

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:58 pm
Wow... all this feedback, but no one caught the "Key West...south 54, gusts 68 (visibility one-half mile in snow)" bit in the original post? ;)

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 1:58 pm
hey, bloggers..this is not the time to get wound up in a debate...fact is, South Florida is going to need help in recovering; lets pray for those folks...
As for us, Katrina has just got into the gulf....the models will be eveywhere right now...Nothing would surprise me at this point. During Ivan and Dennis the forcast changed a lot. Expect nothing different here. Just watch and wait. These guys have not let us down and from my experience watching and listening, they always have our best interests and concerns in mind.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Umm  
on August 26, 2005, 2:01 pm
Praying for the Floridians won't do much good... after all, if it's God's will to send a hurricane, who are we to try to change His mind? Think about it.

Reply to this comment
Posted by   www
on August 26, 2005, 2:10 pm
I just received this E-mail...interesting!

area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
300 pm cdt fri aug 26 2005

.....long term...
its a waiting game after saturday...highly dependant on the exact
track of katrina. after some inside info from hpc...elected to
hold off on any significant updates in order to better incorporate
the upcoming update. a "significant westward" shift in expected.
nevertheless...did bump pops up and re-arranged weather wording
sunday night through tuesday. heavy rain/isolated thunder will
better handel this event. numerous adjustments will be required
over the next 48 to 72 hours as be get a better idea on katrina's
impact.




Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 2:10 pm
This is what happens when parents leave kids alone with computers. It's really getting old, and taking up space. Hopefully James or JB can block them out.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 2:44 pm
Hello
first off.. thanks to ABC 33/40, James, JB, and the entire crew. You guys are appreciated..
To Umm prayer works,, trust me...
I will pray for James and the crew to have strenth for the next couple of days..


Reply to this comment
Posted by John  
on August 26, 2005, 9:05 pm
I just love the idiots that think they are perfect. And in regards to the dumbies that got surprised by the hurricane coming this way now. WAKE UP this is why 33/40 has FIVE (5) count them (5a.m., 12 noon, 5p.m., 6p.m., and 10p.m. news times to watch. That what they are there for. To keep you updated! Its your ignorant fault if you don't. Not to mention the forecasts on the radios. Ignore these people James you are doing the best you can.

Reply to this comment