The Friday afternoon map discussion will be delayed until about 4:00 p.m...
MAJOR CHANGE IN KATRINA TRACK FORECAST POSSIBLE
All of us are going to have to shift the track of Katrina westward. Considerably. NHC package will be out shortly... will post details as soon as we get them.
After several days of reporting the best chance of landfall somewhere from Panama City to Cedar Key, we have no choice but to move the projected track to the west. Possibly as much as 300 miles.
Our friends on the Alabama Gulf coast will have to breathe heavier again, and everyone up this way will need to get ready for potential problems. I am not a big "flip-flop" guy, and I like to hold on to my ideas as long as possible, but there is simply too much evidence to suggest we might have a problem well west of where we initially identifed the greatest chance of landfall.
The NAM is the only model with a landfall now east of Panama City. The GFS has shifted all the way west to New Orleans... along with the BAM output and the GFDL. The Florida State MM5 shows landfall now at Pensacola, and the Canadian GEM also shows Pensacola.
This thing could grow into a monster this weekend... even stronger than Ivan, Opal, and Frederic.
Major, intense hurricanes can actually create their own steering current, and troughs don't have as much of an impact. And, there is not much skill in forecasting the landfall point of a category four or five hurricane.
Everyone from New Orleans to Gulf Shores to Panama City will need to begin readiness action NOW.
That is a huge stretch, but with the potential danger involved with this system it is the course of least regret.
Also, with the westward shift some of those energy traders could get their wish; which is something nobody should want. A major disruption of oil drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to higher oil prices. But, that is our least concern now.
With the westward shift, there is a much greater chance a larger part of Alabama will be dealing with lots of wind and rain. I will write a specific impact statement for north Alabama shortly...
With the weekend here, we need to get out this message this afternoon. More shortly..
MAJOR CHANGE IN KATRINA TRACK FORECAST POSSIBLE
All of us are going to have to shift the track of Katrina westward. Considerably. NHC package will be out shortly... will post details as soon as we get them.
After several days of reporting the best chance of landfall somewhere from Panama City to Cedar Key, we have no choice but to move the projected track to the west. Possibly as much as 300 miles.
Our friends on the Alabama Gulf coast will have to breathe heavier again, and everyone up this way will need to get ready for potential problems. I am not a big "flip-flop" guy, and I like to hold on to my ideas as long as possible, but there is simply too much evidence to suggest we might have a problem well west of where we initially identifed the greatest chance of landfall.
The NAM is the only model with a landfall now east of Panama City. The GFS has shifted all the way west to New Orleans... along with the BAM output and the GFDL. The Florida State MM5 shows landfall now at Pensacola, and the Canadian GEM also shows Pensacola.
This thing could grow into a monster this weekend... even stronger than Ivan, Opal, and Frederic.
Major, intense hurricanes can actually create their own steering current, and troughs don't have as much of an impact. And, there is not much skill in forecasting the landfall point of a category four or five hurricane.
Everyone from New Orleans to Gulf Shores to Panama City will need to begin readiness action NOW.
That is a huge stretch, but with the potential danger involved with this system it is the course of least regret.
Also, with the westward shift some of those energy traders could get their wish; which is something nobody should want. A major disruption of oil drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to higher oil prices. But, that is our least concern now.
With the westward shift, there is a much greater chance a larger part of Alabama will be dealing with lots of wind and rain. I will write a specific impact statement for north Alabama shortly...
With the weekend here, we need to get out this message this afternoon. More shortly..
on August 26, 2005, 2:24 pm
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