Inland Impact Update

August 26, 2005, 3:02 pm
Posted by James Spann in Tropical Weather
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
Best we can do at this point is roll with the NHC forecast track, which puts Katrina inland very close to the Alabama/Mississippi state line at midday Monday.

Katrina then moves to a point near Birmingham early Tuesday morning, and then on to Chattanooga Tuesday afternoon.

Under the assumption that Katrina ramps up to a category four storm, here is the impact on Alabama:

Damage on the Alabama Gulf coast (Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach) similar to Ivan in September 2004... except in this case the threat to Mobile county and city of Mobile will be much greater. Storm surge flooding from Mobile Bay could be very severe.

Significant tree and power line damage as far north as Birmingham with widespread and lengthy power outages. For Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden, worst weather will come from 6:00 p.m. Monday through 6:00 a.m. Tuesday.

All of this is assuming NHC track is correct.

Unfortunately, this track is about the worst possible scenario for Mobile and Birmingham.

Changes are possible, and likely.

I can't remember the last time NHC adjusted a track 200 to 300 miles from one package to another, but I agree this is the course of least regret.

Due to tremendous work load due to track change I will not be able to crank out a video update afternoon...

As we have mentioned in recent days, there is almost always one big surprise in every tropical system. Looks like we have our surprise.

Are there any more coming? Probably. The 18Z run of the NAM is taking Katrina toward Mexico.... but needless to say that is quite an outlier

See the blend of model output here:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.p
ng
Mail this   Printer friendly   
Posted by mark  
on August 26, 2005, 3:11 pm
based on the 5:00 advisary, isn't it true that the really strong winds with this storm are confined to a small area with this storm?

are you fearing Ivanesq damage because of storm surge and wave action or the cat 4-5 winds possible now with this storm?

Reply to this comment
Posted by JLR  
on August 26, 2005, 3:27 pm
by the looks of the compilation of all the models, it may be even more west than the NHC is saying. Could really be the bad one that New Orleans has been missing for years now. But I guarantee you it will change a couple more times by landfall.

Reply to this comment
Posted by B M  
on August 26, 2005, 4:06 pm
Well, here we go again with the Panic Mode of James Spann and company.

Have we already forgot about the Ivan errors made by ABC33/40. James and company took it upon themselves to air a special about how bad it would get in Birmingham/Tuscaloose, etc. We would have significant tree damage and no power for a month, etc.

James - I beg you before you start talking about the end of all civilizaton again, take a minute and think about your forecasts. Do not drop off the deep end again. Stop trying to scare the masses with your quesses just like Ivan.

And just for the record, I believe James is a great weather person. He has saved many lives with his forecasts. But the "run for the hills" forecasts have got to be better thought out before you post them.

Step back, breathe, think about the impact of your message and then deliver a professional weather forecast.



Reply to this comment
Posted by al911dispatcher  
on August 26, 2005, 8:17 pm
The people in Miami didn't think Katrina was a big deal either, since she was ONLY a cat 1. 6 are dead now, and major flood damage. If 33/40 didn't sound an alarm, these same people would be screaming that they weren't warned. Other TV stations try to say they don't do that, truth is, they know they'll never be a 33/40 or have anywhere near the talent they have, so they have given up trying. I know I don't watch anyone else during severe weather. Those other stations might as well show Andy Griffith reruns.

Reply to this comment
Posted by PaUL  
on August 26, 2005, 3:39 pm
GO ON JAMES GIVE US YOUR BEST GUESS.Landfall,intensity-if you get it right you win a Paul bobble head doll LOL.

Reply to this comment
Posted by EB  
on August 26, 2005, 3:47 pm
Mark,

The really strong winds (for example, the current strength of 100 miles per hour) are not spread over a 400 mile area (i.e. as wide as the hurricane). The 100 mile per hour winds are confined to the eye-wall, where the tightest spin of the low pressure system is. This is true of all Hurricanes.

It only makes perfect sense to fear Ivan-esque damage due to the fact that it is forecast to make landfall around the same strength as Ivan, possibly more intense. I don't mean to come off as rude if I do, but have been told that I tend too sometimes. Hope I could help, Mark.

James, Godspeed to getting the forecast ready for the 5:00 news. I know you are likely much too busy to respond on the blog at this point, since you were too swamped to even update the video. Take a deep breath, and we'll be watching!

EB

Reply to this comment
Posted by Jamie  
on August 26, 2005, 3:52 pm
To look on the morose, yet bright side of this event, I'm ready for the hi-def ".2" wall-to-wall again. That was good stuff last time.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 4:13 pm
what ivan errors??? the weather team did an OUTSTANDING forcast for hurricane ivan. YOU, BM, may not have had "significant damage", nor did I, however, I know many who did, and NOT just on the coast either. If you will recall, there were many without power for more than a week. it is always best to prepare for the worst, but pray for the best.

as always- i am grateful to have a responsible, honest weather team to depend on rain or shine! thanks for all you do guys!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 4:15 pm
Isnt it amazing how these cowards wont even leave their names and email addresses? Really easy to sit behind a computer anonymously and throw barbs. Panic mode? Far from it. It's called common sense. When the forecast has it coming directly towards you, you tend to sound the alarm. That's why people should heed the warning of "stay tuned". Not take the info and run. These phantom posters need to stop with the barbs. Because it's these same people that will be saying, "Where was the warning?", when they're cutting timber off of their houses next week. Keep up the good work 33/40 crew. Not all of us are moronic!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 4:26 pm
So true Scott. I noticed that myself about the email addresses. These are the people who need to wake up and smell the coffee :-)

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 5:01 pm
I think James Spann is the best. I do not trust any other new station when it comes to bad weather. Keep up the good work guys!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 5:18 pm
BM...This is getting old...I'm trying my hardest to be patient and kind, but yu are simply wrong...or confused...there was damage that far north with Ivan.

I wish this blog required email address, at least.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 5:35 pm
I have lived on the coast all my life(Mobile) and if I have learned anything, its never too early too call in the dogs.

Hurricane Fredrick was very scary and devistating unfortunatly this storm could be worse.

Good job 33/40! I turn to the net for my 411 and you guys do an awesome job!

Thanks from Mobile

Reply to this comment
Posted by Brian  
on August 26, 2005, 5:53 pm
Personally I haven't got the slightest indication of a Panic Mode from James and the 33/40 weather team. It seems to me he's preparing us for the POSSIBILITIES, nothing more. James and his crew know better than anyone else that tropical systems have a mind of their own and can provide plenty of surprises.
Keep up the great work 33/40! I'll stay tuned.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on August 26, 2005, 6:01 pm
James, JB, Jason, John, or Brian...

How about a gut feeling on where this thing is going to go? I know we don't do things based on feelings, but how about a best guess.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Christianne  
on August 26, 2005, 6:31 pm
Ivan caused significant structural damage to our roof and garage, and to 10 other homes just on our street here in Roebuck Springs. It looked like a war zone. Power, phones and cable were out for several days. Two of our neighbors had to move out of their homes until the trees could be removed and repairs done.

I am another Birmingham resident who relies almost completely on the 33/40 team when the weather gets nasty. I appreciate very much your professionalism and dedication to the safety of everyone in the area. Keep up the good work, and God bless you as you gear up for this hurricane.


Reply to this comment
Posted by John  
on August 26, 2005, 8:41 pm
James, if you all did not do your job I would be GREATLY dissapointed. Yes, you make mistakes in trying to predict mother nature, your human. But I want to go back to April 98, when you all first came on and had the guts to stay on the air for the F5 tornado and SAVED LIVES with people calling other people that was watching you and gave them the warning and now a lot of those folks that had their lives changed stay glued to you now because it finally happened to them, when they said it was just another one of those warnings. NO ONE TELLS ANYONE TO PANIC, JUST PAY ATTENTION, LOOK, WATCH. If the storm did not hit you then thank our God Allmighty that you were blessed and go help your fellow neighbor and STOP criticizing! God Bless 33/40 weather team. Don't Stop.

Reply to this comment