The 9:00 National Hurricane Center conference call has ended...
They will adjust the track slightly to the west again... showing landfall around Biloxi.
The guys at HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) in Washington prefer a track even more to the west.
00Z models are coming in, and some of them have shifted to the west a bit.
NAM is coming in, and it keeps Katrina moving southwest through at least 48 hours... toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico!
There is still a large degree of uncertainty in this forecast.
If we do have a Gulf coast landfall (U.S. Gulf coast), Alabama will be on the wild east side. Even if it moves into Louisiana, we will have to watch for isolated tornadoes.
I will be wrapping up a very long day after our 10:00 news on ABC 33/40... our team of meteorologists have been and will stay on an instant message conference through the duration of Katrina. Let me say hats off to J.B. Elliott and Jason Simpson who nailed this more westward track long before I let go of the idea of a landfall around Panama City. I have always had a problem of being too stubborn and lot letting go of old ideas soon enough with tropical systems.
I think a decent amount of sleep is in order for me... but I will be up relatively early tomorrow and will post a lengthy discussion of Saturday morning thoughts.
I don't know of anyone who is comfortable with forecasting this system right now. But, we all have concern of the potential for it to become a very dangerous hurricane in the Gulf during the next 48 hours. Stay tuned.
FYI... new package coming in:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
They will adjust the track slightly to the west again... showing landfall around Biloxi.
The guys at HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) in Washington prefer a track even more to the west.
00Z models are coming in, and some of them have shifted to the west a bit.
NAM is coming in, and it keeps Katrina moving southwest through at least 48 hours... toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico!
There is still a large degree of uncertainty in this forecast.
If we do have a Gulf coast landfall (U.S. Gulf coast), Alabama will be on the wild east side. Even if it moves into Louisiana, we will have to watch for isolated tornadoes.
I will be wrapping up a very long day after our 10:00 news on ABC 33/40... our team of meteorologists have been and will stay on an instant message conference through the duration of Katrina. Let me say hats off to J.B. Elliott and Jason Simpson who nailed this more westward track long before I let go of the idea of a landfall around Panama City. I have always had a problem of being too stubborn and lot letting go of old ideas soon enough with tropical systems.
I think a decent amount of sleep is in order for me... but I will be up relatively early tomorrow and will post a lengthy discussion of Saturday morning thoughts.
I don't know of anyone who is comfortable with forecasting this system right now. But, we all have concern of the potential for it to become a very dangerous hurricane in the Gulf during the next 48 hours. Stay tuned.
FYI... new package coming in:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
on August 27, 2005, 1:03 am
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