Here is the latest information on Hurricane Katrina as of 10 p.m. CDT...
LOCATION...Latitude 24.6 North...Longitude 83.6 West...or 460 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
MOVEMENT...WSW 8 mph
MAX WINDS...105 mph...Category Two on the Saffir Simpson Scale
CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 mb...28.50 inches
Lots of questions and not many answers as we look at the late evening data on Hurricane Katrina. The first question is when will the west southwestward motion stop. That appears to be happening now. Katrina should continue westward and gradually turn more to the northwest and then eventually north. When that will occur is the $64 billion question (inflation).
There is a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf Coast, and it is currently steering the storm westward. A trough of low pressure over the central part of the country is forecast to weaken the ridge. If that happens, the storm will make the expected northward turn earlier. If the ridge holds, the recurve will be slower to occur and landfall will occur further west, perhaps as far west as western Louisiana. Some of the numerical models were hinting that the storm might even go toward South Texas or Mexico late tonight. One thing to remember is that a really strong hurricane (which Katrina seems destined to be) can control its own environment. The hurricane exhausts lots of hot air out to its north, and this can help to maintain the strength of a ridge of high pressure in such a situation.
My gut feeling is that it will make the expected northward turn and make landfall somewhere between Southeast Louisiana and the Pensacola area. The late evening official National Hurricane Center forecast carries the storm to a landfall point near Biloxi on Monday. This is just east of model guidance that is in good agreement tonight. This could be disastrous for the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Thoughts of Hurricane Camille come to mind with an August storm looming in the Gulf. The City of New Orleans could be a worst case scenario. There is talk tonight that the National Guard will be mobilized tomorrow in Louisiana.
Just how strong will she get? It’s really hard to say. The only factor limiting development so far has been dry air surrounding the storm. Katrina should overcome this as she traverses some very warm waters that are part of the Gulf Loop Current. The official forecast calls for an intensity of 135 mph. Some of the other models, including the FSU Superensemble say it could be dramatically stronger, like 150-155 mph. Needless to say, everyone along the Gulf Coast will be keeping an eye out to sea on ths Saturday.
We will be watching also.
LOCATION...Latitude 24.6 North...Longitude 83.6 West...or 460 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
MOVEMENT...WSW 8 mph
MAX WINDS...105 mph...Category Two on the Saffir Simpson Scale
CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 mb...28.50 inches
Lots of questions and not many answers as we look at the late evening data on Hurricane Katrina. The first question is when will the west southwestward motion stop. That appears to be happening now. Katrina should continue westward and gradually turn more to the northwest and then eventually north. When that will occur is the $64 billion question (inflation).
There is a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf Coast, and it is currently steering the storm westward. A trough of low pressure over the central part of the country is forecast to weaken the ridge. If that happens, the storm will make the expected northward turn earlier. If the ridge holds, the recurve will be slower to occur and landfall will occur further west, perhaps as far west as western Louisiana. Some of the numerical models were hinting that the storm might even go toward South Texas or Mexico late tonight. One thing to remember is that a really strong hurricane (which Katrina seems destined to be) can control its own environment. The hurricane exhausts lots of hot air out to its north, and this can help to maintain the strength of a ridge of high pressure in such a situation.
My gut feeling is that it will make the expected northward turn and make landfall somewhere between Southeast Louisiana and the Pensacola area. The late evening official National Hurricane Center forecast carries the storm to a landfall point near Biloxi on Monday. This is just east of model guidance that is in good agreement tonight. This could be disastrous for the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Thoughts of Hurricane Camille come to mind with an August storm looming in the Gulf. The City of New Orleans could be a worst case scenario. There is talk tonight that the National Guard will be mobilized tomorrow in Louisiana.
Just how strong will she get? It’s really hard to say. The only factor limiting development so far has been dry air surrounding the storm. Katrina should overcome this as she traverses some very warm waters that are part of the Gulf Loop Current. The official forecast calls for an intensity of 135 mph. Some of the other models, including the FSU Superensemble say it could be dramatically stronger, like 150-155 mph. Needless to say, everyone along the Gulf Coast will be keeping an eye out to sea on ths Saturday.
We will be watching also.
on August 26, 2005, 9:44 pm
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