The mercury in the ole Buffalo Rock thermometer in the back yard will be on a real roller coaster ride for the rest of January. Despite temperatures as cold as 43 degrees below zero over the northern U.S. over the past few days, the upper air flow pattern simply would not allow any of that bitterly cold air down here. We caught the very far edge of the airmass yesterday, and it will be retreating northward later today as temperatures recover to near 60. We should be in the mid 60s tomorrow, and a good chance we see 70 degrees on Sunday and over the first few days of next week.
But, the longer range computer models continue to hint at a strong push of much colder air in here in about 8 to 9 days, or during the weekend of January 15-16. Some of the runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) put a big 1044 millibar high deep into Texas that weekend, which should bring temperatures as low as the teens to north Alabama. We have to remember that there is a vast snow cover over the central and northern U.S., which will only add to the chill as the air moves southward.
The good news is that we see no strong evidence of any freezing rain threat here after the arrival of the cold air. Freezing rain is fairly common here in the deep south when a very shallow layer of sub-freezing air is near the surface, and warmer, moist air from the Gulf is transported on top of that cold air. By definition, freezing rain is simply rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder. A long period of freezing rain is an ice storm, and those are no fun for anyone.
But, as we say here over and over, there is not much skill in a SPECIFIC forecast beyond seven days, so we won’t be able to be confident in details of the cold air change until early next week. Stay tuned…
But, the longer range computer models continue to hint at a strong push of much colder air in here in about 8 to 9 days, or during the weekend of January 15-16. Some of the runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) put a big 1044 millibar high deep into Texas that weekend, which should bring temperatures as low as the teens to north Alabama. We have to remember that there is a vast snow cover over the central and northern U.S., which will only add to the chill as the air moves southward.
The good news is that we see no strong evidence of any freezing rain threat here after the arrival of the cold air. Freezing rain is fairly common here in the deep south when a very shallow layer of sub-freezing air is near the surface, and warmer, moist air from the Gulf is transported on top of that cold air. By definition, freezing rain is simply rain that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder. A long period of freezing rain is an ice storm, and those are no fun for anyone.
But, as we say here over and over, there is not much skill in a SPECIFIC forecast beyond seven days, so we won’t be able to be confident in details of the cold air change until early next week. Stay tuned…