John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein are staff writers for the New Orleans Times-Picayune. In June 2002, they penned an article in the paper titled “In Harm’s Way.” The article described with haunting accuracy the threat that the vulnerable City of New Orleans faced from an F4 or F5 hurricane. The article described Louisiana’s hurricane heritage. It talked about the advances in hurricane forecasting technology, and the complex series of levees and pumping stations that provided a false sense of security. Despite this, the authors said that the state of Louisiana and the Crescent City were more vulnerable than ever to hurricanes.
Coastal erosion has been gradually eliminating the barrier islands and marshlands that have formed a protective ring around the state. In fact, in some locations, the Gulf of Mexico, is twenty miles closer than it was in 1965, when Category Three Hurricane Betsy struck the state and flooded New Orleans. In addition, the land over Southeast Louisiana has been sinking at an alarming rate. On average, the height of land over southern Louisiana is two feet lower than it was forty years ago. McQuaid and Schleifstein went on to warn that New Orleans is below sea level and if a hurricane were to breach the levees in New Orleans, it might take six months to get he water out. Although the Army Corps of Engineers said that the threat of the levees being breached was remote, they were relying on old date. The authors contended that new data and computer simulations indicated that the possibility was very real.
An excerpt from the article: “If enough water from Lake Pontchartrain topped the levee system along its south shore, the result would be apocalyptic. Vast areas would be submerged for days or weeks until engineers dynamited the levees to let the water escape. Some places on the east bank of Orleans and Jefferson parishes are as low as 10 feet below sea level. Adding a 20-foot storm surge from a Category 4 or 5 storm would mean 30 feet of standing water. Whoever remained in the city would be at grave risk. According to the American Red Cross, a likely death toll would be between 25,000 and 100,000 people, dwarfing estimated death tolls for other natural disasters and all but the most nightmarish potential terrorist attacks. Tens of thousands more would be stranded on rooftops and high ground, awaiting rescue that could take days or longer. They would face thirst, hunger and exposure to toxic chemicals.” Amazingly prophetic.
The authors went on to say that New Orleans and coastal Louisiana was at a precipice. There was a chance to halt the damage to the wetlands and barrier islands and some dramatic protective mechanisms such as a twenty foot seawall across the city. The quoted reports that it would cost $14 billion to effect these solutions. Seems pretty inexpensive now.
Coastal erosion has been gradually eliminating the barrier islands and marshlands that have formed a protective ring around the state. In fact, in some locations, the Gulf of Mexico, is twenty miles closer than it was in 1965, when Category Three Hurricane Betsy struck the state and flooded New Orleans. In addition, the land over Southeast Louisiana has been sinking at an alarming rate. On average, the height of land over southern Louisiana is two feet lower than it was forty years ago. McQuaid and Schleifstein went on to warn that New Orleans is below sea level and if a hurricane were to breach the levees in New Orleans, it might take six months to get he water out. Although the Army Corps of Engineers said that the threat of the levees being breached was remote, they were relying on old date. The authors contended that new data and computer simulations indicated that the possibility was very real.
An excerpt from the article: “If enough water from Lake Pontchartrain topped the levee system along its south shore, the result would be apocalyptic. Vast areas would be submerged for days or weeks until engineers dynamited the levees to let the water escape. Some places on the east bank of Orleans and Jefferson parishes are as low as 10 feet below sea level. Adding a 20-foot storm surge from a Category 4 or 5 storm would mean 30 feet of standing water. Whoever remained in the city would be at grave risk. According to the American Red Cross, a likely death toll would be between 25,000 and 100,000 people, dwarfing estimated death tolls for other natural disasters and all but the most nightmarish potential terrorist attacks. Tens of thousands more would be stranded on rooftops and high ground, awaiting rescue that could take days or longer. They would face thirst, hunger and exposure to toxic chemicals.” Amazingly prophetic.
The authors went on to say that New Orleans and coastal Louisiana was at a precipice. There was a chance to halt the damage to the wetlands and barrier islands and some dramatic protective mechanisms such as a twenty foot seawall across the city. The quoted reports that it would cost $14 billion to effect these solutions. Seems pretty inexpensive now.
on September 3, 2005, 11:48 am
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