The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lets spend some time talking about the tropics, and take each system one at a time:
MARIA: This hurricane is moving out to the north Atlantic and is no threat to land.
NATE: Good looking system; should become a hurricane soon. But, like Maria, no threat to land.
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE: This thing is barely hanging in there... seems like dry air (Sahara Dust Layer
is keeping this in check.
GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE: This "backyard system" has a chance to slowly develop, and would most likely move toward the Texas coast as a big rain-maker.
OPHELIA: TD 16 should be Ophelia soon, possibly by the time you read this. Most of our attention will be on this system just east of Florida.
Latest recon shows max flight level winds of only 20 knots (around 1:15 p.m.)...
Steering currents are very weak and this thing might hang around the same spot for several days. And, unfortunately, growing stronger at the same time.
I am not sure this thing can get north of Jacksonville due to the ridge north of the system. I think that same ridge has the chance to ultimately nudge this thing more to the west. The official track has Ophelia moving up toward Jacksonville this weekend. I just am not convinced it gets that far north.
The GFDL still suggests the thing is heading toward Louisiana. The GFS wants to drift the system northward before moving it into Georgia, with the big moisture mass arriving in Alabama toward the middle of next week. The NAM keeps the system off the Florida coast through 84 hours. Just too early for the models to really have a handle on it.
But, we must remember the models had a bad initial bias to the north and east with Katrina. That might be the case with this one. I do have fear this winds up in the Gulf of Mexico at some point this weekend, and it becomes a threat for everyone from Texas around the horn to the Florida panhandle.
Be sure and scroll down and see the pictures from Ed Pegues, who has been in Waveland, MS in recent days. Amazing.
TELETHON: Just learned ABC 33/40 will do a "mini-telethon" for victims of Katrina Thursday evening from 6:00 until 8:00. Never thought I would be doing a telethon again... years ago I hosted such events for organizations like United Cerebral Palsy and the Children's Hospital of Alabama. I will post more details on this program as I get information on it.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lets spend some time talking about the tropics, and take each system one at a time:
MARIA: This hurricane is moving out to the north Atlantic and is no threat to land.
NATE: Good looking system; should become a hurricane soon. But, like Maria, no threat to land.
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE: This thing is barely hanging in there... seems like dry air (Sahara Dust Layer
is keeping this in check.GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE: This "backyard system" has a chance to slowly develop, and would most likely move toward the Texas coast as a big rain-maker.
OPHELIA: TD 16 should be Ophelia soon, possibly by the time you read this. Most of our attention will be on this system just east of Florida.
Latest recon shows max flight level winds of only 20 knots (around 1:15 p.m.)...
Steering currents are very weak and this thing might hang around the same spot for several days. And, unfortunately, growing stronger at the same time.
I am not sure this thing can get north of Jacksonville due to the ridge north of the system. I think that same ridge has the chance to ultimately nudge this thing more to the west. The official track has Ophelia moving up toward Jacksonville this weekend. I just am not convinced it gets that far north.
The GFDL still suggests the thing is heading toward Louisiana. The GFS wants to drift the system northward before moving it into Georgia, with the big moisture mass arriving in Alabama toward the middle of next week. The NAM keeps the system off the Florida coast through 84 hours. Just too early for the models to really have a handle on it.
But, we must remember the models had a bad initial bias to the north and east with Katrina. That might be the case with this one. I do have fear this winds up in the Gulf of Mexico at some point this weekend, and it becomes a threat for everyone from Texas around the horn to the Florida panhandle.
Be sure and scroll down and see the pictures from Ed Pegues, who has been in Waveland, MS in recent days. Amazing.
TELETHON: Just learned ABC 33/40 will do a "mini-telethon" for victims of Katrina Thursday evening from 6:00 until 8:00. Never thought I would be doing a telethon again... years ago I hosted such events for organizations like United Cerebral Palsy and the Children's Hospital of Alabama. I will post more details on this program as I get information on it.
on September 6, 2005, 1:07 pm
Who's grand idea was it to name a hurricane Ophelia?
We all know how Shakespeare's Ophelia met her fate by _drowning_ herself.
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