The Wednesday morning map discussion is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
Quite a trio in the Atlantic: Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. Still watching the wave in the western Gulf; that might bring some significant rain to the Texas coastal plain in coming days. Nate will be passing close to Bermuda, but all of our attention here will be on Ophelia.
Bottom line here is this system will be in no hurry to go anywhere for the rest of the week with very weak steering currents.
NHC has changed their track; now keeping Ophelia offshore through the coming weekend with a loop off the Florida coast. A number of other models go along with the loop idea, including the GFS. The GFS loops Ophelia offshore, takes it inland somewhere between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach around one week from today, then moving into the Gulf with a landfall near Pensacola on Friday September 16, with the system then moving northward through Alabama. I am not convinced Ophelia will hang around THAT long, but I guess it is possible.
The GFDL and the European models both want to take Ophelia across the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf, and toward New Orleans with no looping action.
A few models take the system out to sea with no landfall.
I still think Ophelia will have a hard time getting north of Jacksonville in coming days, and I think the GFS idea is not far from the truth, I just am not sure it will take that long for the system to get into the Gulf and onto the Gulf coast (10 days). Maybe closer to 6 to 7 days.
IF Ophelia does wind up in the Gulf of Mexico, there is not as much latent heat energy available thanks to Katrina. But, it still could be a significant hurricane.
AROUND HERE: Feels very very nice this morning. Observations as I type this show 59 at Decatur, and 65 at Birmingham. Dry weather continues through Saturday; beyond that it all depends on what Ophelia does.
TELETHON: A reminder we will be raising money for the survivors of Katrina on ABC 33/40 Thursday from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. from the BJCC. Plan on joining us for this two hour special...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
Quite a trio in the Atlantic: Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. Still watching the wave in the western Gulf; that might bring some significant rain to the Texas coastal plain in coming days. Nate will be passing close to Bermuda, but all of our attention here will be on Ophelia.
Bottom line here is this system will be in no hurry to go anywhere for the rest of the week with very weak steering currents.
NHC has changed their track; now keeping Ophelia offshore through the coming weekend with a loop off the Florida coast. A number of other models go along with the loop idea, including the GFS. The GFS loops Ophelia offshore, takes it inland somewhere between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach around one week from today, then moving into the Gulf with a landfall near Pensacola on Friday September 16, with the system then moving northward through Alabama. I am not convinced Ophelia will hang around THAT long, but I guess it is possible.
The GFDL and the European models both want to take Ophelia across the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf, and toward New Orleans with no looping action.
A few models take the system out to sea with no landfall.
I still think Ophelia will have a hard time getting north of Jacksonville in coming days, and I think the GFS idea is not far from the truth, I just am not sure it will take that long for the system to get into the Gulf and onto the Gulf coast (10 days). Maybe closer to 6 to 7 days.
IF Ophelia does wind up in the Gulf of Mexico, there is not as much latent heat energy available thanks to Katrina. But, it still could be a significant hurricane.
AROUND HERE: Feels very very nice this morning. Observations as I type this show 59 at Decatur, and 65 at Birmingham. Dry weather continues through Saturday; beyond that it all depends on what Ophelia does.
TELETHON: A reminder we will be raising money for the survivors of Katrina on ABC 33/40 Thursday from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. from the BJCC. Plan on joining us for this two hour special...
on September 7, 2005, 6:36 am
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