The Wednesday afternoon map discussion is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me first off encourage you to read the post below this one, an article from a Syracuse, NY newspaper with the story behind the incredible statement released by NWS meteorologist Robert Ricks in New Orleans Sunday morning before Katrina's arrival on the coast. Ken Graham of the National Weather Service calls Ricks a "real hero". I totally agree.
AROUND HERE: Also scroll down to read the list of low temperatures around Alabama this morning compiled by J.B. Elliott. Fall is my favorite season, and those golden days of October are just around the corner. No real change here, warm days, cool nights, and no rain through the weekend. Temperatures where they should be in early September.
TROPICS: That big mass in the western Gulf is headed toward Texas... it should bring some beneficial rain to parts of the Rio Grande Valley that have been in drought conditions for a long time.
But, of course, we focus our attention on Ophelia.
The latest recon shows a pressure of 997 mb with max flight level winds of 50 knots. Looks like Ophelia will be a hurricane tonight or tomorrow just off the east coast of Florida.
Once again, we are dealing with model madness. Some models take Ophelia out to sea, some do the loop action with no net motion for a number of days, and some want to take it to the west. NHC track shows little motion through early next week.
The 12Z run of the GFS takes the system on a rather wild journey across the Atlantic, with the system getting close to Jacksonville and the Outer Banks of North Carolina before finally moving out to sea in 10 days or so. This solution would mean no impact here.
On the other hand, the GFDL and the ECMWF continue to move the system this way. The latest run of the GFDL has Ophelia near Tuscaloosa early next week, after moving westward through Georgia.
I still am not convinced this thing can get north of Jacksonville, or north of latitude 31 north. I agree with the NHC it sits in the same general area for a few days before making up her mind.
This thing in some ways reminds me of Jeanne from last year. The idea of the system ultimately moving west, and maybe even southwest, across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf indeed is worth considering. We wait and watch, as usual.
BEACH TRIPS: Lots of questions from people wanting to know if they should cancel weekend trips to Panama City, Destin, Gulf Shores, etc. At this time I would not cancel, but pay close attention to these discussions. If you have a fear of a hurricane ruining your beach trip, then you would never be able to go from June through November, the time of the Atlantic hurricane season! You always have a risk of a tropical system in the summer or early fall along the central Gulf coast. That is just the way it is.
TELETHON: Don't forget to watch our two hour special tomorrow night from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. on ABC 33/40... you will learn specific ways you can help hurricane survivors. We will be live from the BJCC.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me first off encourage you to read the post below this one, an article from a Syracuse, NY newspaper with the story behind the incredible statement released by NWS meteorologist Robert Ricks in New Orleans Sunday morning before Katrina's arrival on the coast. Ken Graham of the National Weather Service calls Ricks a "real hero". I totally agree.
AROUND HERE: Also scroll down to read the list of low temperatures around Alabama this morning compiled by J.B. Elliott. Fall is my favorite season, and those golden days of October are just around the corner. No real change here, warm days, cool nights, and no rain through the weekend. Temperatures where they should be in early September.
TROPICS: That big mass in the western Gulf is headed toward Texas... it should bring some beneficial rain to parts of the Rio Grande Valley that have been in drought conditions for a long time.
But, of course, we focus our attention on Ophelia.
The latest recon shows a pressure of 997 mb with max flight level winds of 50 knots. Looks like Ophelia will be a hurricane tonight or tomorrow just off the east coast of Florida.
Once again, we are dealing with model madness. Some models take Ophelia out to sea, some do the loop action with no net motion for a number of days, and some want to take it to the west. NHC track shows little motion through early next week.
The 12Z run of the GFS takes the system on a rather wild journey across the Atlantic, with the system getting close to Jacksonville and the Outer Banks of North Carolina before finally moving out to sea in 10 days or so. This solution would mean no impact here.
On the other hand, the GFDL and the ECMWF continue to move the system this way. The latest run of the GFDL has Ophelia near Tuscaloosa early next week, after moving westward through Georgia.
I still am not convinced this thing can get north of Jacksonville, or north of latitude 31 north. I agree with the NHC it sits in the same general area for a few days before making up her mind.
This thing in some ways reminds me of Jeanne from last year. The idea of the system ultimately moving west, and maybe even southwest, across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf indeed is worth considering. We wait and watch, as usual.
BEACH TRIPS: Lots of questions from people wanting to know if they should cancel weekend trips to Panama City, Destin, Gulf Shores, etc. At this time I would not cancel, but pay close attention to these discussions. If you have a fear of a hurricane ruining your beach trip, then you would never be able to go from June through November, the time of the Atlantic hurricane season! You always have a risk of a tropical system in the summer or early fall along the central Gulf coast. That is just the way it is.
TELETHON: Don't forget to watch our two hour special tomorrow night from 6:00 until 8:00 p.m. on ABC 33/40... you will learn specific ways you can help hurricane survivors. We will be live from the BJCC.
on September 7, 2005, 2:30 pm
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