The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Not a drop of rain for most Alabama communities since Katrina left us 8 days ago, and the dry spell should continue into the weekend, and possibly well into next week. Our rain surplus for the year has just about vanished, and we will have a deficit by the weekend.
I also note both the NAM and the GFS show the dreaded 5940 meter circle at 500 millibars over Alabama this weekend. That means low 90s are very possible. Glad this isn't July with the better sun angle and longer days.
TROPICS: Check out that mass in the Bay of Campeche... that might become tropical storm Philippe today. It is moving toward the Mexican Gulf coast...
Nate and Maria will stay well out to sea, so again today we focus on Ophelia. And, quite frankly, not much change in the situation since yesterday.
The official NHC track keeps it just east of the upper Florida coast through early next week.
Model madness continues. The GFDL and the European still want to take Ophelia to the west, in the direction of Jacksonville and into south Georgia. A number of models, including the UKMET, do the loop thing offshore with the system coming toward the coast (somewhere between Daytona Beach and Brunswick) late in the weekend or early next week. Some models, including the GFS, keep the system offshore and then finally take it out to sea with no U.S. landfall.
I still see no real way this thing gets north of 31 North.. or north of Jacksonville (note the discussion about the ole 5940 circle over the southeast U.S. above).
This might be like Jeanne to some degree... I think the best solution for now is the looping one. Ophelia takes her time offshore, and then indeed does move back toward the Atlantic coast in 4 to 7 days. It might get into the Gulf, or maybe it moves into the Brunswick area with the mass of moisture moving our way. That would work out nicely for us; we need the rain, and it will be greatly weakened by the time it gets here coming through Georgia.
Will Ophelia become a hurricane? I say yes. Latest recon shows the pressure has dropped to 989 mb with max flight level winds of 62 knots. Despite some shear and dry air near the system, I think it will be a hurricane within 24 hours.
So, as usual, we wait and watch.
TELETHON: Don't forget to join us tonight on ABC 33/40 from 6:00 until 8:00... you will learn more about how you can help the evacuees from Katrina. Due to this special program, much of my operation will be shifting down to the BJCC this afternoon, which means I probably will not be able to post an afternoon video update, but I do plan on a blog discussion by 3:30.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Not a drop of rain for most Alabama communities since Katrina left us 8 days ago, and the dry spell should continue into the weekend, and possibly well into next week. Our rain surplus for the year has just about vanished, and we will have a deficit by the weekend.
I also note both the NAM and the GFS show the dreaded 5940 meter circle at 500 millibars over Alabama this weekend. That means low 90s are very possible. Glad this isn't July with the better sun angle and longer days.
TROPICS: Check out that mass in the Bay of Campeche... that might become tropical storm Philippe today. It is moving toward the Mexican Gulf coast...
Nate and Maria will stay well out to sea, so again today we focus on Ophelia. And, quite frankly, not much change in the situation since yesterday.
The official NHC track keeps it just east of the upper Florida coast through early next week.
Model madness continues. The GFDL and the European still want to take Ophelia to the west, in the direction of Jacksonville and into south Georgia. A number of models, including the UKMET, do the loop thing offshore with the system coming toward the coast (somewhere between Daytona Beach and Brunswick) late in the weekend or early next week. Some models, including the GFS, keep the system offshore and then finally take it out to sea with no U.S. landfall.
I still see no real way this thing gets north of 31 North.. or north of Jacksonville (note the discussion about the ole 5940 circle over the southeast U.S. above).
This might be like Jeanne to some degree... I think the best solution for now is the looping one. Ophelia takes her time offshore, and then indeed does move back toward the Atlantic coast in 4 to 7 days. It might get into the Gulf, or maybe it moves into the Brunswick area with the mass of moisture moving our way. That would work out nicely for us; we need the rain, and it will be greatly weakened by the time it gets here coming through Georgia.
Will Ophelia become a hurricane? I say yes. Latest recon shows the pressure has dropped to 989 mb with max flight level winds of 62 knots. Despite some shear and dry air near the system, I think it will be a hurricane within 24 hours.
So, as usual, we wait and watch.
TELETHON: Don't forget to join us tonight on ABC 33/40 from 6:00 until 8:00... you will learn more about how you can help the evacuees from Katrina. Due to this special program, much of my operation will be shifting down to the BJCC this afternoon, which means I probably will not be able to post an afternoon video update, but I do plan on a blog discussion by 3:30.