The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Even though we are in the 15th day of a long dry spell, we have plenty to discuss today.
Check out the video for an update on major solar activity that might set the stage for a big display of the northern lights tonight... with this intense activity we might even see something as far south as north Alabama. Learn more on http://www.spaceweather.com
We actually have a little lightning showing up on the lightning network over central Mississipi as I write this, and a tornado watch is coming out for parts of Texas and Oklahoma where a moderate risk of severe weather is in place. Surely we will see a little rain with all of this action to the west.
The expected MCS (mesoscale convective system) that will form this afternoon around Wichita Falls should move to the east, and might try to reach the northwest corner of Alabama late tonight. I doubt if we see anything from this, and we will maintain a dry forecast tonight.
Another MCS should form tomorrow to the west, and again the best chance of significant rain will stay north of here. For now we will mention just an outside risk of any one spot getting wet tomorrow.
It could be that Friday will offer the best chance of scattered showers and storms as the front comes through. The model extraction from the 12Z runs includes a rain total of 0.10 from the NAM, and 0.12" from the GFS. Hopefully a few spots will have the dust settled for a brief time.
WEEKEND: A surge of dry air moves in for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like the cooler spots have a great chance of reaching the 55 to 59 degree range both Saturday and Sunday morning, with lows in the 60 to 64 degree range for most other places. Highs will be in the 80s, and the humidity will be low. Very comfortable conditions both Saturday and Sunday.
The dry weather should hold through much of next week.
THE LONG RANGE: We are still watching the GFS closely at the end of the month. Looks like we will have a high amplitude pattern, but the model changes the position of the trough on just about every run. The latest run (12Z) has the trough over the eastern U.S... with little rain here with the cold front. Quite a change from the 00Z run (see the morning discussion). One way or another the coldest air of the season so far will invade the northern U.S. Fun to see those low thickness values... a sign of the times. Maybe some of that chilly air will reach us by early October.
OPHELIA: See the posts below from J.B. on the latest with the hurricane nearing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Lots of wind and rain.
PHILLIPE? Looks like the wave around 9N/42W is getting better organized, and that might become tropical storm Phillipe down the road. It has a chance of getting into the Caribbean, but for now the models are all over the road. See the video for the latest....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Even though we are in the 15th day of a long dry spell, we have plenty to discuss today.
Check out the video for an update on major solar activity that might set the stage for a big display of the northern lights tonight... with this intense activity we might even see something as far south as north Alabama. Learn more on http://www.spaceweather.com
We actually have a little lightning showing up on the lightning network over central Mississipi as I write this, and a tornado watch is coming out for parts of Texas and Oklahoma where a moderate risk of severe weather is in place. Surely we will see a little rain with all of this action to the west.
The expected MCS (mesoscale convective system) that will form this afternoon around Wichita Falls should move to the east, and might try to reach the northwest corner of Alabama late tonight. I doubt if we see anything from this, and we will maintain a dry forecast tonight.
Another MCS should form tomorrow to the west, and again the best chance of significant rain will stay north of here. For now we will mention just an outside risk of any one spot getting wet tomorrow.
It could be that Friday will offer the best chance of scattered showers and storms as the front comes through. The model extraction from the 12Z runs includes a rain total of 0.10 from the NAM, and 0.12" from the GFS. Hopefully a few spots will have the dust settled for a brief time.
WEEKEND: A surge of dry air moves in for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like the cooler spots have a great chance of reaching the 55 to 59 degree range both Saturday and Sunday morning, with lows in the 60 to 64 degree range for most other places. Highs will be in the 80s, and the humidity will be low. Very comfortable conditions both Saturday and Sunday.
The dry weather should hold through much of next week.
THE LONG RANGE: We are still watching the GFS closely at the end of the month. Looks like we will have a high amplitude pattern, but the model changes the position of the trough on just about every run. The latest run (12Z) has the trough over the eastern U.S... with little rain here with the cold front. Quite a change from the 00Z run (see the morning discussion). One way or another the coldest air of the season so far will invade the northern U.S. Fun to see those low thickness values... a sign of the times. Maybe some of that chilly air will reach us by early October.
OPHELIA: See the posts below from J.B. on the latest with the hurricane nearing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Lots of wind and rain.
PHILLIPE? Looks like the wave around 9N/42W is getting better organized, and that might become tropical storm Phillipe down the road. It has a chance of getting into the Caribbean, but for now the models are all over the road. See the video for the latest....