A New Tool in the Hurricane Forecast Arsenal

A historic event occurred on Friday. NOAA flew its first unmanned aircraft, or Aerosonde, into Hurricane Ophelia while it was moving along the East Coast of the United States. At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the Aerosonde was released from a ground based transport vehicle at NASA's Wallops Island Flight Facility in southeastern Virginia and lifted off for a ten hour successful mission.

Ophelia was perfect because currently flights must occur within flying range of the Wallops Island facility, which limits the range of use to about 1,500 total flight miles.

Researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami were overjoyed at the results of the flight. They hope that the missions will become routine events in the near future.

The information provided by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is invaluable to forecasters. But the manned aircraft are unable to fly at low levels because of the turbulent conditions located there. Flying at altitudes as low as five hundred feet, the Aerosonde allows continuous real time sampling of the near-surface environment, which is increasingly believed to be critical in understanding intensification processes, needless to say how strong winds are at the surface.

During the historic flight, observations of temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed were measured every half second and transmitted back to the National Hurricane Center and AOML by satellite. An infrared sensor also measured sea surface temperatures.

Currently, reconnaissance crews take flight level observations, from which surface winds must be estimated using a formula. Often, the estimates are not accurate. They also make visual observations of the sea state and estimate winds from those observations. The Aerosondes will allow for more accurate low level wind measurements.

The air-sea interface appears to be important in understanding intensification, because this is where energy is transferred from the ocean to the storm through evaporation. Data from low flyin Aerosondes could help forecasters to make better intensity change forecasts.

The Aerosondes have a flight level ceiling of 2500 feet when manned aircraft are in the area. The Aerosondes will be permitted to spiral all the way to 10,000 feet in the eye at the end of each mission for a special sounding if no aircraft are in the area.

The Aerosonde returned in pristine condition at 5:30 p.m. EDT Friday to its launch site at the NASA Wallops Island Flight Facility in southeastern Virginia.

Hopefully, Friday, September 16, 2005 will be long remembered as a red letter day in hurricane forecasting history.
Posted by  
on September 17, 2005, 9:23 pm
I wonder if NHC will ask NOAA to bring it to Kennedy Space Center and launch it into Phillipe and TD 18, the future Rita, which looks like our next major Hurricane.

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Posted by  
on September 17, 2005, 10:43 pm
With this new aircraft does this mean that eventually NOAA and NHC will stop using crew manned reconissance flights in the near future?

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Posted by   www
on September 18, 2005, 8:26 am
Interesting to note that this happened on the one year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan making landfall in Gulf Shores. And Phil, I would hope that NOAA would continue manned missions, at least up until they can develop a way to make the Aerosonde, or some other beefed up aircraft, fully automatic. It would be interesting to see a big ol' WC-130 fly into something like Katrina, with no one on board!

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