Tropical Depression Number 18 forms east of the southeastern Bahamas...
The system was classififed as a tropical depression as of 10 pm CDT. It is moving west northwest. It is expected to turn more to the west as a ridge of high pressure fills in to the north of the system. This will push the system toward the Florida Straits, Florida Keys or South Florida. Then it will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure ridge to the north will steer the hurricane westward across the Gulf.
Where it eventually will end up is uncertain. Earlier runs of the GFDL model carried it generally northwestward, but the afternoon run pushes it toward Mexico. The GFS has consistently taken it toward Mexico, south of the Texas coast, perhaps turning northward near the time of landfall and bringing rains northward into Texas.
The depression will be moving over very warm water and will be in a low shear environment. The only factor that could inhibit intensification will be dry air in the mid level. The GFDL still makes it a 140 mph hurricane in the Florida Straits and carries it near Key West Monday afternoon.
The official NHC track carries it near Key West late on Tuesday and into the Central Gulf by Thursday heading toward Mexico or the lower Texas Coast. The official forecast is much slower with intensification, only bringing the system to 90 mph by the end of the five days.
Tropical Depression Number 17 named Tropical Storm Philippe
The depression continued to look better organized on satellite pictures through the evening hours and was upraded to Tropical Storm Philippe at 10 p.m. The center of the storm was 485 miles east southeast of the Leewards and moving north northwest at 5 mph. It is expected to miss the islands as it continues in this same general direction. It should become a hurricane during the next 48 hours and is forecast to eventually have maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should pose no threat to the coast of the United States.
Tropical Storm Ophelia Losing Tropical Characteristics
The system will pass near Halifax, Nova Scotia tonight and near Newfoundland on Sunday. It will bring tropical storm force conditions to most of Nova Scotia and parts of Newfoundland. It is moving radpily northeast and will cross the cold waters of the North Atlantic, reaching the British Isles by midweek.
The system was classififed as a tropical depression as of 10 pm CDT. It is moving west northwest. It is expected to turn more to the west as a ridge of high pressure fills in to the north of the system. This will push the system toward the Florida Straits, Florida Keys or South Florida. Then it will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure ridge to the north will steer the hurricane westward across the Gulf.
Where it eventually will end up is uncertain. Earlier runs of the GFDL model carried it generally northwestward, but the afternoon run pushes it toward Mexico. The GFS has consistently taken it toward Mexico, south of the Texas coast, perhaps turning northward near the time of landfall and bringing rains northward into Texas.
The depression will be moving over very warm water and will be in a low shear environment. The only factor that could inhibit intensification will be dry air in the mid level. The GFDL still makes it a 140 mph hurricane in the Florida Straits and carries it near Key West Monday afternoon.
The official NHC track carries it near Key West late on Tuesday and into the Central Gulf by Thursday heading toward Mexico or the lower Texas Coast. The official forecast is much slower with intensification, only bringing the system to 90 mph by the end of the five days.
Tropical Depression Number 17 named Tropical Storm Philippe
The depression continued to look better organized on satellite pictures through the evening hours and was upraded to Tropical Storm Philippe at 10 p.m. The center of the storm was 485 miles east southeast of the Leewards and moving north northwest at 5 mph. It is expected to miss the islands as it continues in this same general direction. It should become a hurricane during the next 48 hours and is forecast to eventually have maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should pose no threat to the coast of the United States.
Tropical Storm Ophelia Losing Tropical Characteristics
The system will pass near Halifax, Nova Scotia tonight and near Newfoundland on Sunday. It will bring tropical storm force conditions to most of Nova Scotia and parts of Newfoundland. It is moving radpily northeast and will cross the cold waters of the North Atlantic, reaching the British Isles by midweek.
on September 17, 2005, 9:46 pm
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB AND EARLIER SHIP
REPORTS. BANDING HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
SEVERAL MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND
THE SURFACE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TD-18 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BUILDS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FILLING RDIGE WEAKNESS IS
UNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE MOVES
BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL KEEP
THE SYSTEM OVER OR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY THE CANADIAN
MODEL AND THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HOURS. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CIRCULATION CENTER
COULD EASILY DEVELOP ANY WHERE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN NORTH-SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER
30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AFTERWARDS...
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE
WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 20 KT AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
73 KT. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A
200 MB ANTICYCLONE WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A
SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH
STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS
MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A
120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2
STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 22.0N 69.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W 80 KT
$$
wxtlist.k: done
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